Handicapper Tips & Picks

This is a competitive race where looking to get creative #2 ROYAL LAUGHTER fits on speed figures and class as well as current form; arguably even intent for this second start of the cycle. In terms of the surface switch she showed TURF visuals from the OP debut back in April 2023 and off that race went to CBY looking for the grass in the three following starts including the second career start MSW win. Last season she showed up in a turf race under similar conditions to today’s event, though changes coming off the 159-day layoff and broke SLOG while also WIDE in the 4^th place outcome.

#7 SPICY ITALIAN and #4 DEAL’EM AND WEEP project to battle for favoritism in this race and both logical. SPICY ITALIAN finds a subtle change in race dynamic and timing something that could be to her benefit and does hold surface versatility. DEAL’EM AND WEEP asserted their class edge with the dominant/B+ $20k N2 claiming win last month and will look for that to career here under similar conditions and just slightly higher race par.

#6 OH MACARENA fits this race shape and should hold some value for the connections especially with the running line and finishing position 11-days ago though a noted higher class level and in running TROUBLE. #3 WHAT’S TO DO comes in off a slight freshening and from the 6/19 HS Indy win. The connections had considered running her here last month in an allowance though waiting out this spot to remain in claiming company. 

Current form is the main question mark in this race even when assessing #4 RACETOTHEFINISH one that “on paper” appears the clear horse to beat and even catch with their early speed. While none of that is in question, the 7/19 start left something to be desired visually while also noting a Fast early pace (early/late) and the higher class level and addition of blinkers for the first time in her career. The class change in this case could cycle back to the first statement taking the drop off a poor effort and at the lowest level of her career.

Looking a the local group #5 LOST SUNSET could have their hands full with RACETOTHEFINISH contesting the lead and both in terms of winning the battle and the war. Number wise #3 RUNNERS HEAT sits on the lower end of par and from that standpoint has hurdles and requires value. At the same time, they have had some subtle trips required the class DROP from the higher level races starting out this season and also picking up a rider change to at the least signal some intent. 

This is a solid field of runners and each horse merits a look in their own right. Looking at the race as a while and how the pace should impact the outcome both #4 JOURNEYIST and #5 EMPIRICAL VIEW fit with the running style in addition to class, speed and form.

EMPIRICAL VIEW arguably has the slight class edge and even upside of the two lightly raced despite being close in age with the layoffs surrounding her 2024, the 4yo campaign. EMPIRICAL VIEW will STRETCH out for the first time this season though should handle today’s 7.5 distance and not concerned with that change. Keying off that abbreviated 2024 season, EMPIRICAL VIEW might have been a little outclassed (DROP) though to her credit turned in a solid number in the higher level allowance off the layoff at CD on 5/30 compromised with the lack of recency, the outside post and class. That race was followed up here at Hawthorne with the 6/16 allowance a race show had in running TROUBLE less than ideal TACTIC- and projected to IMPROVE, something everyone had to be patient for with the layoff that followed that race.

Most of the field coming in off slight breaks (45+ days) with the exception of #3 MY BUDDY BROOKS also showing up off a win and a confident step up in class. Her 7/13 win was game taking and holding through pace PRESSED and worked for the win with the contention both by the company and the Fast early and late race shape. MY BUDDY BROOKS also made a positive PRERACE+ appearance something to look for again today. A new top effort will be key for the top spot when looking at the figures to date, on the lower end though has shown improvement on the turf on numbers. They will need to follow that progressive pattern though not out of the question just requires some price compensation. 

The rail draw has been a hinderance this season for the two A. Hernandez runners and while not ideal for #1 CAMP DADDY today (one that has upside at this level overall) moving off 1 post for #5 LUNDBERG is key change. LUNDBERG has struggled from the rail during their career and the inside this season impacting the trip in the Work All Week stakes as well as the X_FLOW on 6/19 and TROUBLE on 7/10 playing a role in the show outcome. In addition to the change in post, they find the change in class running for the $25k tag (not the first time in for a tag for this barn, though first time this season and for $25k) and a decision they are probably not taking lightly as they could see a claim and at the the same time looking for the win.

LUNDBERG has tactical speed not a need the lead type and the draw can assist with that stalking trip looking for first run or even taking the lead if the pace is slow and that is necessary. That trip key with their former stablemate #4 CORTESE a solid closer one that fit at this level and coming off win under similar conditions last month and can go back-to-back. 

Starting the analysis with ML favorite #3 GLAMORA one that on speed figures has recorded the highest in this field and the horse to beat on that front. They also find the change in class both with the MCL price change, par and circuit switch. She will be stretching out for the two turn distance for the first time and the connections reasonable making that change here going 7.5f. As far as the two starts this season. She had legitimate EX – EXCUSE with the TROUBLES+ coming off the layoff in March followed up with a WIDE trip in May. The layoff lines are the biggest concern and create reservations more than anything while attached to a projected shorter number.

#1 POLSKA SUE moved up on the turf and moved up at the MCL level they return from here. They also return on quick rest and from a subtle trip last meet while under that higher par and hot pace – a Very Fast early/late giving a double flow upgrade while also staying on as the BOS through a Fast early/late pace under similar conditions with the place finish on 6/26. #8 TRINITYTHREEINONE also worth a mention from the 6/26 common race making a strong CLOSE (after a TACTIC_ NO_PUSH early on) both runners recording a B- OptixGRADE with the opposite style trips.

While a “faster” race is required for the pair: #7 HELEN OF C’VILLE should move up on the TURF following the recent visuals and with that change arguably one we have yet to see their best; #2 CATNIP HILL worth perhaps another look on turf given the TROUBLES+ EX -EXCUSE last out and flow upgrade from 6/12  while also one that needed the class DROP from the earlier starts in MSW company. 

#6 BLURT once again appears to hold a front end (Q1) pace advantage and while looking for that to materialize on the win end, this should be the time and place. They presented a similar pace advantage, however, giving up recency from the 239-day layoff back on 6/12. Following that race a X_FLOW upgrade from 6/29 as well as 7/10 both races run back on shorter rest between starts and finds a reasonable 35-day freshening here.

The lack of recency might have been the knock on #7 LOOKIN FOR REVENGE coming off their 214-day layoff with the front wraps added to present upside here second off. They did not have an “excuse” on trip 7/20 taking part in a Slow early/late pace (FTQ) though should all around assist on fitness. LOOKIN FOR REVENGE has some of the higher back numbers and class to lean on when looking to separate from rivals #2 MR UNIVERSE and #8 SIXWILLBERICH runners with a similar runstyle and “lookin” for a similar trip.

When speaking of back class #4 READTHECLIFFNOTES is that horse and while racing first time in their career at the conditional $5k claiming level, the connections running for the $7.5 higher IL-bred allowance price. The change in class is one seeking a win, not a concern change in this case going back to summer 2023 for their most recent win. Current form and figures fit at this level and suggest he still wants to race just needs the right level. 

In the finale, the race shape for this turf sprint is interesting and should have a say on the outcome. The Fire Contention (number of horses in Q1) is paired with a low-to-moderate 24 SpeedRate and with six of the eight runners sharing the E or EP runstyle. All of that to say, pace should make the race though added hurdle as no one has a pace advantage or disadvantage to compete.

That includes #6 CODE NAME (even when looking at Plot position/shape) returning from the layoff and placed where they can compete. They have two races over this turf sprint course from last season that can be upgraded. The layoff return in allowance company last June was run in the rain/WEATHER and CODE NAME to their credit parked WIDE and X_FLOW on a Fast early pace and followed up with another WIDE allowance trip (and NO_PUSH) over a Good rated turf course in September just before the layoff. Those trips and class level noted as they are impacting the Plot position and shape here.

The GP numbers overall fit on #4 SEVERANCE and could even suggest intent second off with the connections scratching from the OC$10k 5f turf sprint last Sunday to run here instead. The intent follows second off the layoff and from the TROUBLES+ EX – EXCUSE on 7/26 at FP. Those races and overall being lightly raced are impacting their Plot position.

Projected favorite #5 SAWYER FOX brings in consistent figures, tactical speed and finishing ability (Q1 Square) reasons to back up their role as the favorite though still one that in this group requires a top effort to win and will be tested to earn it.