Handicapper Tips & Picks

#2 WILD DREAMS returns from a slight 35 day freshening and back to the MCL level where she has been most effective this season. Her second start with the place finish after making an early RUSH and PRESSED to hold place, albeit three horse field. Claimed out of the late 5/22 event they were stepped up in class on 6/29 and back to today’s level on 7/13 – fractious in the gate, though an X_FLOW upgrade despite being FTQ/ dueled with the eventual open length winner, Sharp Attack in the distant show finish.

That outcome was alongside today’s rival #6 LIL CARRIE D one that has recorded some of the higher figures in the field keying off prior seasons as well as holding her own this year. They find some subtle changes like post moving towards the outside while also less obvious the blinkers something she has worn in the past – going back to 2023 though those four starts against a higher maiden class.

Second time starter #1 ATRAXA showed some run with adversity in their debut two weeks ago at FP. They had a TROUBLE_S made an early RUSH to recover though COVER behind horses taking KICKBACK before moving into the clear and running on late. The rail draw in this case could be a hurdle while certainly the right type of lightly raced new face to give a look to here. 

#6 BOONE’S PATH shifts to an outside post and could bet they key as far as trip and outcome looking for a belated N2 win. Despite giving up recency into the 7/24 event, they appeared intent with the subtle change in class though could have been compromised with the WEATHER DELAY and even inside contesting the pace with their stablemate #1 HAWAIIAN HIDE AWAY on their inside. BOONE’S PATH did show up with the front wraps on the day a change for them and something to look for here while they find another change towards intent with O. Mojica jumping back aboard.

In terms of early pace, #3 BYWORD projects to be in that first flight and their better races this season when forwardly placed and could look for them to be assertive here. Common rival #2 VINO COURAGIO could project intent as another returning from the 7/24 common race when stretching out on the dirt for the first time this season and impacted with the track conditions breaking SLOG and chasing WIDE might not have had their best chance on the day. A rider change in play while also on the one-week turnaround could further suggest intent.

In terms of #4 MOONRISE DRIVE they fit with this group and at today’s level however lack a real strong edge as something to consider with post time odds. #5 ZEE FIRE in just limited route starts appears at their best around tow turs. That keys off the figures (less so outcome) back at OP in 2024 and the maiden win last month. Those dirt numbers on repeat sit in line with others in this field including the recent two dirt starts for MOONRISE DRIVE and looking at the Plot there is not much between the two. 

The shorter 5.5f distance is the primary knock on ML favorite #7 CALLAS given their running style (Q4 Square)  while holding the edge on form and class and especially consistent speed figures. They will be supported by stablemate #3 RUMBRANDT a contender in their own right with a return to top form and arguably not the ideal distance at 5.5f though does have some tactical speed to work with in today’s race shape.

#4 TWO TIMER can be upgraded with their early speed and returning to the one turn distance and moving from the rail in their two recent route races. TWO TIMER was dominant/B+ breaking their maiden back in April at this distance and doing so on the lead as the BOS while pulling off the 15.7-1 upset on the day.

#1 ROSE’S WISH picks up the rail and distance change for this race. She has been effective making a late run in the recent two turn turf events and going back to the start of her career in 2024 was sprinting on the dirt at the shorter 5-5.5f distance. The recent pattern of SLOG from the four recent starts along with runstyle is something that must be considered at the least on value. 

#3 BERNIE LOMAX as the projected favorite looks to hold a pace advantage when looking at the Plot with their early speed, Q1 position and lone runner in this field above the ParLine. That appears key for their running style (Circle) to find separation on the others and look to hold while showing back up first time on this circuit and freshened off the claim for M. Quinonez/A. Bendezu.

Logical types in #2 GABAGOOL and #5 HATCHET CREET fit with tactical speed and hold for the minors but looking to get more creative with others in this field:

#1 LINE TO GAIN should present some value and one that could easily be overlooked from their “on paper” appearance despite following an “every other” pattern to suggest they are sitting on a peak effort here. The place finish two back sprinting par of that form cycle pattern and even from the others starts this season when considering overall effort (not necessarily outcome) at the higher conditioned levels. #7 CHAMPAGNE MIKE requires a turnaround though finds a rider change to L. Colon that could signal intent even more so with front wrap removal and does hold sprint efforts from last season under similar par and level that fit with the other more obvious types. The race shape is not the most ideal for closer (Q4 Square) #4 MALIGATOR on the win end though one that can be given an underneath longshot look. 

#4 I O FEDRO did not have an excuse on trip though the lack of recency of coming off the 291-day layoff last month though impacted with the WEATHER impacted surface switch and track conditions as well as trip forced to RUSH given the rail and slight change from their preferred runstyle. They should hold fitness while back on their preferred TURF surface and at the right level for their abilities. With the race moved to the main track while perhaps not their ideal surface they can look to adapt at the right level to compete and current second off fitness. 

Former stablemate #9 LICENSE TO STEAL remains on the turf though the change in class back to claiming company and moves up with that change. They also project upside from the TROUBLE trip making a WIDE MOVE in the 7/13 allowance and in live hands with S. Gonzalez aboard. Value is still required overall and number wise with the surface switch sits in line with #1 WOLF HUNTER one that could sneak away with longer odds of the two. 

#5 JR’S WISH brings in a level of surface versatility with this event moved to the main track. In addition, they show up as a new face and fits with the change in class and overall form as well as a TROUBLE trip in their most recent (6/5) CD start. They have overall surface versatility making the transition to the turf here and in the past did not appear an issue on surface alone, rather class with the 5 turf starts to date in allowance company and four of those at a higher allowance KY circuit class all with figures that fit on par for today’s event.

#6 PROFESSOR HIGGINS brings in current form and overdue for some racing luck. They return with a slight 42-day freshening and could be key running back on shorter rest in the June/July series those races less than ideal TACTIC- playing a role in outcome with in running TRAFFIC TROUBLE showing more run than perhaps the line and finishing position suggests. As far as the surface switch to the main track, they are not knock at the right number. Their previous dirt races were for the most part at the sprint distance and their highest figure to date was recorded last season (9/26/24) a N1 allowance moved to the main track contested around two turns. 

#8 TIZ CHINA made a positive PRERACE+ appearance in their debut three weeks ago though was restless in the GATE and might have impacted to some extent on the day while finishing second to Boom Boom Bell the lone runner with racing experience in the 7/26 field. They have the edge of the group from the 7/26 common race and from FTS stablemate #7 COOSA – one with a long series of works and should be fit off the series.

As far as the FTS: #2 ZEE caught my eye physically as she was schooling in the paddock on Thursday. She was a little green (screaming) though fit and athletic and appears race ready and surface versatile.

With the M. Perez pair both #4 ALROSA and #5 SHE’S TOPS were set to debut in the 7/10 event though SHE’S TOPS was a late scratch unable to get a shoe repair in time for the start. SHE’S TOPS appeared to the intent on the day of the two and now wheeling back from the 7/27 common race showing some run making a WIDE MOVE after the SLOG in a race with minimal change in running order. 

From a race shape standpoint, there is a scenario for #3 MAN ON ATTACK to present a pace advantage with their early speed and threat (at a price) to take the field gate-to-wire, Surface/Distance Q1 Square. Their rival #2 HARD TO FATHOM rider S. Gonzalez has been able to recognize race shapes and adjust with the quickness and might not allow MAN ON ATTACK to get too loose and lone on the lead. HARD TO FATHOM with the live rider noted, has some other challenges with the rise in class wheeling back in less than two weeks from the TACTIC+ win on 8/7 and while value earlier this month they could bring shorter odds here today.

With MAN ON ATTACK out (scr off turf) the lone MTO runner #7 BIGFOOT SIGHTING should look to take advantage of the surface switch and their early speed, while the other portion of the analysis holds especially in regards to HARD TO FATHOM potentially contesting pace as that should be the case with #4 ICONICUS bringing in dirt sprint form.

The rail draw and drop in class for #1 CANYON STREAK could also see then attempt to track closer to the pace and the class drop following the pair of B- efforts (and TROUBLE trip on 8/7) appears the right move here looking for the top spot outcome. They hold an off-track win and competitive speed figure from back in May at LS, a slightly higher purse with a slightly lower par. 

A. Hernandez has a capable pair: #5 HAWKS CREEK also taking the class drop, a move they had considered running for $25k on 7/24 though scratched when the races were taken off the turf and moved to the main track. They are also looking for the right level for the win with some upside returning with a rider change from less than ideal TACTIC- and SLOG back on 7/3. #6 BOURBON LIFE taking advantage of the 7/24 surface switch and their buried form and class with the win. They wheeled right back holding their own two weeks later (8/7) with the B- OptixGRADE and noting the top three (including HARD TO FATHOM) in a BLANKET at the wire with the next two (BOURBON LIFE) right off the tails of that set. In terms of HAWKS CREEK unlike last month they will stay in this race and past on prior dirt (for prior connections) those numbers consistent with their current turf form and numbers that sit in line alongside BOURBON LIFE. 

#1 BLACK GINGER makes a belated Hawthorne return. She broke her maiden over this main track in the late season 10/3 debut with gate speed/POP from the rail and going clear late. She has yet to win since, though has been in tough company and trips along the way and despite the outcome has held their form and figures. The return and freshening could present intent and a regain of some confidence as well.

While BLACK GINGER showed speed in that debut win and could do so here there is other confirmed front running speed primarily with #4 THERDGOESONFORVER and #7 SHE’SINTHEARMY NOW for S. Gonzalez to have some options with trip though the rail is in play. #6 OMAHA STAMP and #8 SHE STOPPED SHORT also could flash early speed while overall are lighter (Average/Below) in the Speed figure department to consider as contenders.  

#5 CANTOO is one that also makes a belated Hawthorne return and could be the right time and place for that move bringing in improved form and figures in this current form cycle. She showed some ability in their early days with the local starts as a juvenile in stakes company while running some BTL efforts returning as sophomore in the spring breaking her maiden against older company.

The recent TACTIC- turf trips have not been ideal for #3 SECRET OPERATION and return to the main track here where she has run well in the past though does require the combination of the right trip and a top effort to win, and the right number to play. The distance change and class rise noted for #2 AUTISM COMPASSION though one a win streak and game as they come cannot fault the connections for making those changes stepping up the class ladder.