Handicapper Tips & Picks

In terms of race shape, #2 RACING THE LIGHT has the edge when it comes to early speed (Q1) even compared to others in the field that have had front running success. RACING THE LIGHT broke their maiden LONE setting a Fast early/late pace back on 6/5 something to note with the timing, step up on circuit while taking on winner on 7/4 at ELP. They returned to Hawthorne at this level, surface distance 18-days ago setting an honest pace from the rail and stalked by their stablemate well-intended winner, She Stopped Short. 

With RACING THE LIGHT potentially tough on the lead and could force the other front running rivals to contest or even take back something that would assist further the trip, #3 CHIQUITA REINA should find the right pace to come running on late. She bring in current (and buried) form returning to the claiming level and lower par than anything she has faced since taking on winners. She appears well-spotted and intended for this third start of the cycle and upgraded from the 7/28 HS Indy allowance noting the WEATHER impacted poor track conditions chasing an open length pacesetting winner in a race with minimal change in running order. 

This is a competitive race where a case can be made for many in this field. The lack of value in that case noted for ML favorite #5 MY LAST ESCAPADE (or any at too short a number for that matter) and going back to the route races earlier this season they finished behind with B- OptixGRADES and slightly lower figures than the B efforts recorded from #4 RAGNOW. 

#3 BLAKELY'S BOY will make a local debut though in terms of class appear the right move for them and placed according to their abilities. They raced for the $10k tag coming off the 108-day layoff at ELP back on 7/13, a figures that fits on par and overall effort recording a B- OptixGRADE as they encountered TROUBLE while making their MOVE. 

Both M. Perez runners in with a look: #1 BLACK RUSSIAN being the most proven overall and at the route distance; a surface versatile type back on the main track and making a CLOSE behind their stablemate winner, Money Agent on the turf earlier this month. In terms of #2 GAME SANTA they will be tested around two turns and tested to improve number wise once again. They showed run on debut after breaking SLOG/TROUBLE_S putting in a late CLOSE and GALLOP recording a B- OptixGRADE, a similar B- in the second start last month. For this third start and coming out of the sprints, they could as the Standard Plot suggests, show early speed. 

Starting the analysis with #2 SISTERSOUTTACHROME the lone runner in this field with a massive class edge and upgraded running in this condition. With that ABOVE+ class edge noted, they have other hurdles such as the lack of recency from the 172-day layoff and perhaps even trip given their runstyle and Plot position from Q4. 

In terms of pace, they are not completely compromised on trip based on the Plot dynamic however that does require they show up with a top effort as well as the off-the-pace racing luck. #3 LOVEYOULIKECRAZY also requires similar racing luck on trip though has things to upgrade while returning to Hawthorne where they have run well in the past and some current form flying under the radar with projected price compensation. 

The early pace as noted projects to be honest with both #1 LITTLE SASS and #7 ANNA AFTER MIDNITE not only in Q1 but in Q1 above the ParLine. Both runners as Circles (lack of finishing ability) could assist #4 WILDWOOD QUEEN, #5 WRITTEN CONSENT and #6 FAST N HAPPY with the right tracking trip. 

This is a competitive race where if looking at recent speed figures, there is not much separation with each runner returning to a recent top. In terms of pace, there is no real pace advantage/disadvantage when looking at the Plot. On class where are two runners that figures ABOVE and the edge on that front: 

#5 BRODY has shown up on this circuit in the past looking for the right level and has been successful with that placement. Even going back to last season on the turf they raced X_BIAS and the long layoff that followed. Returning from the layoff this spring, they were competitive off the layoff on 4/20 despite some in running TROUBLE- and ground loss/WIDE before securing the 5/11 MSW win. They have held their form and figures since however unable to translate that into a top spot given the much higher race par events at CD and both ELP events. 

#2 DICK BEST recorded a B OptixGRADE over this course and distance with the BLANKET finish place back on 5/22, a race with a higher par than today's event despite the same N1 class level. The class change, significant lower par on 6/19 moved them up and gained confidence with the B+ win. Stepped back up in class for both July races they held their own and given an X_FLOW upgrade part of the Very Fast (VF/F late) race shapes. 

#2 CLYDE'S GREEN GO obviously has the main track form should that come into play at the same time they could land the right time and place making a belated return to the turf. Their most recent turf start was last season, the 9/5 start late in the season and their campaign while also racing WARM and WIDE against the course profile and tough to take much overall given that trip and especially with the long 217-day layoff that followed. Going back to their early days the 2021 season they showed up on the turf sprinting competitively in open MSW at Arlington Park. CLYDE'S GREEN GO in those races was able to track and finish something that could be key with this race shape given four of the seven entered for turf sharing the E or EP runstyle. 

#7 CONGRATS ON FIFTY could hold value and in that case preference of the Q1/front runners. They bring in form on the main track and shorter sprint distance while also presenting a slight upgrade with the change in post - they have had inside draws this season and a subtle change moving outside with O. Mojica back aboard. 

#5 MIDNIGHT SPECIAL also with a P runstyle despite showing some recent tactical speed to work out a trip for the live connections and rider with S. Gonzalez back aboard. In terms of class even exiting the stakes event last month does find a higher par here than the other races on the circuit this season. 

"On paper" #3 PHILIPSBURG is the horse to beat as they sit ABOVE on Speed and Plot and ABOVE+ when it comes to Class. In terms of form, there are some questions with the drop in class and despite on 8/5 staying on as the BOS they were NO_LINE drifting out while flipping leads and shortening strides. The Plot being ABOVE positioned as a Q1 Square though not alone with #1 ALTO ROAD also a Q1 Square and the presence of #2 OFF TO THE RACES (Q1 Circle) adds to the Fire Contention. 

Sticking with the Plot, #6 STAR OF KODIAK and #7 ALIBI IKE could be sitting in the right time and place tracking that Q1 first flight and looking to take advantage over tiring rivals late.

Closer #4 ANCIENT MAN finds a positive extra furlong of ground something they could have used earlier this month and overall a benefit though in terms of class this is a rise and number wise sitting on the lower end of par. 

Today's race dynamic is one of those unique pairings with the Snowflake Contention (light Q1) paired with the higher 86 SpeedRate (majority of the field above the ParLine) as shown on the Plot. That scenario upgrades horses with finishing ability/Squares. 

#2 PROTONIC POWER fits this race shape as a Q4 Square on both Standard (current form) and Surface/Distance. They bring in progressive form, figures and Grades for this third start back off the layoff, noting the common rivals in the 7/3 layoff return and facing their stablemate winner, Empire Builder on 7/31. 

#3 CALIBRATE also a Square on Standard and Surface/Distance to assist on pace (Plot ABOVE) and current Speed also in the ABOVE category. They are taking a step up in Class and while they lack "red" in the Past 3 Runlines they paired up top figures in their two most recent starts and could be required to do so a third time for the top spot here. 

#6 SOUL COAXING (one of two for F. Villa) returns to the main track and from a subtle trip last out (WIDE TACTIC-) picking up a rider change. They are upgraded from that trip and compared to stablemate #4 EYE DEE KAY (in form) SOUL COAXING has been placed slightly higher purse of the duo.

#2 UNCAPTURED PULSE peaked in their form cycle after pairing wins earlier this season and given time and a reset is cycling back to a top. They should hold value with the recent running lines and finishing positions despite fitting ABOVE on Speed and ABOVE+ on Plot and Class. Their runstyle with today's race shape fits positively given the draw and between Q1 pacesetters #1 LATE BLACKSMITH and #3 LAST MINUTE to track that pair and look for first run. In addition to pace they bring in upside from the recent starts; the timing and rise in class impacted the outcome along with the WIDE NO_PUSH trip tracking a Slow early and Very Slow late pace on 6/29. The trip was also subtle on 7/17 as they were restless in the GATE and lunged out chased behind horses taking KICKBACK making a MOVE - all things perhaps tougher to see with the running line and finishing position. They recorded a C+ OptixGRADE and flattered with place finisher Larry The Poet coming back to win and 5th place finisher #5 RED MOSCATO also recording a B OptixGRADE those two together at the wire in 8/3 common race. Today's race par is lower than the 7/17 event and timing wise a slight 35-day freshening also in play while back at the same level to suggest further intent. 

In terms of RED MOSCATO they fit here as well and looking at the Plot share a runstyle and finishing ability to UNCAPTURED PULSE while projecting to be shorter odds of the two. Shorter odds also look to follow #8 VERRAZANOINTHESKY the value/overlay winner of the 7/17 common race. 

Like UNCAPTURED PULSE, a positive form cycle pattern could be in play for #6 SOMNUS here. Their Class not quite as strong as AVERAGE+ and Speed ABOVE- though their runstyle Plot assisting (ABOVE) with the positive STRETCH? Projection in distance from the recent two shorter sprints. 

#4 REMEMBER THE FEAR holds the finishing ability edge over fellow Q4 rival #7 CANYON SHADOWS though the two share similar figures going back to their 2024 numbers and in terms of current form there is not much between the two even when looking at the C+/B- GRADES at this level in their most recent starts races with slightly different par and clear different distances.