Handicapper Tips & Picks

#1 TALL GIRL has a big look with an improving form cycle pattern leading into the 8/10 event and projects to hold form even a move forward for the new connections and rider change. The outcome was impacted given the TACTIC- X_WIDE trip into a Very Slow early/late pace was compromised there and upgraded once again here. In addition to For, Speed, and Class they fit today’s race shape (Q4 Square) looking at the Plot with Fire Contention and higher 63 SpeedRate.

On Surface/Distance TALL GIRL can “trip” even with the likes of the potential main rivals such as #3 PASTA SALAD RHONDA one that fits ABOVE on Speed/Class and for today’s pace/PLOT ABOVE+ in part to the change in class and recent figures. #6 RAINY MOUNTAIN also with competitive form and putting in a solid MOVE and GALLOP+ in the 8/10 common race with TALL GIRL.

Those runners should find an honest pace here with four of the six sharing the E/EP runstyle positioned visually with more than half of the field above the ParLine and in the case of #4 LILY’S CREED shipping back and stretching back out looking to still present controlling speed. 

Like Race 1, a similar pace dynamic could play out with three  of the five “bunched” together in Q1 contesting the early pace and all above the ParLine. #3 UNCASHED with the edge of that trio though still must run their race to hold off the late run from the other two.

#1 NAVY SEAL returns with a slight 51-day freshening and sneaky btl making a CLOSE as the lone runner to make up significant ground in their more recent start, the Iowa Sprint stakes last month at PRM. They hold form over this course and as recently as this season finishing a game CLOSE behind pacesetting winner, #5 KING CAB in the Work All Week stakes back on 5/25.

That race a common race with the other Q4 Square, #4 DEVIL’S TOWER not quite as strong on class (C+ v. B-) on that day though overall ABOVE Class and fits on speed figures. In terms of race shape with the Fire Contention and SpeedRate this is a scenario where they have had success in the past and would not discount here at the right number.

All IL-bred runner lining up in the feature, the Buck’s Boy stakes on the turf. In terms of Plot visuals and also Above on Class and Speed, #2 KATIE M’LADY and #3 ANOTHER MYSTERY stand out as the horses to beat and the start of the analysis assessing those main contenders. KATIE M’LADY draws well given their forward runstyle (Q1) and to the inside and inside of her main pacesetting rivals (stablemate #4 JOURNEY and #6 MAN ON ATTACK) and strong finishing ability as shown by the Square. That should allow the jump on the other main rival and fellow Square ANOTHER MYSTERY also drawn well to save ground and look to capitalize with their late kick.

C. Block also represented with #1 TOWERING STORM one that has shown improvement this season and in terms of speed figures. They bring in upside for this second start of the cycle, a quick 16-day turnaround from a competitive N2 allowance event (higher par and purse) last out at ELP to hold fitness landing here.

The three outside drawn runners: #5 LONE RETURN and #7 HARPER BRIANA for F. Alonso and #6 MAN ON ATTACK for S. Childers all bring in form and competitive types in their own right; however find a class test here and number wise on the lower end for today’s par. 

#4 MISS MIKOS fits this race on Class sitting as the lone runner ABOVE in the field for that category. They return with a slight 42-day freshening and should appreciate that change in timing while returning to the main track, 6f distance and claiming company.

#6 END OF INNOCENCE fits ABOVE in the other categories Speed and Plot/Pace while also finding the 59-day freshening and change class, surface/distance. She brings upside not only with those factors in play but also the recent 6/26 trip with the TROUBLES+ (lunged out broke in a tangle) and from there chased WIDE ran on late with a GALLOP+ behind the top three together at the wire.

In terms of pace, she can be upgraded on Surface/Distance while the overall race shape is a tougher read given the controlling speed (Q1) runner #1 BLUE LILY returns from another long 290-day layoff while also finding a slight change in class. Given those factors and even with the rail draw they could project to find company with #2 LALY just to their outside as well as #5 SHE STOPPED SHORT with tactical speed (Q3) and even #3 BEADS with W. Rodriguez aboard and Q3 Standard position would be no surprise forward at the first call. 

The notable rider change for #3 APRIL’S GEM with S. Gonzalez back aboard. She fits on current figures for today’s par and while improvement is required for this level she is an X_FLOW upgrade from the 8/7 event and slightly positive distance change for this mare. She is drawn inside the other pacesetting rivals when looking at the Plot, both #5 MY LADY SLEW and #6 UNION DOLLY respective Squares in their own way into this race and also consistent figures that fit on par.

#4 GET N TIPSY brings some upside for this third start of the cycle and subtle changes along with the progressive Speed figures on par for today’s event. She holds sneaky back Class (ABOVE) and looking at Surface/Distance Plot could find the first run tracking trip behind that Q1 flight and jump on rivals #2 LOTTA ROSES and #7 LONG TALL WOMAN – one that will be stretching out in distance around two turns for the first time in her career. 

Willing to make a longshot case for #1 PALACE MAGIC in this spot. Their current form makes them a more legitimate longshot, however, brings in some upside with the change in distance and subtle form cycle second off pattern. They turned in a competitive race recording the B- OptixGRADE under today’s conditions and long start at the course and distance back on 5/4, a race that fits on par. Going back in previous seasons she fits on this circuit and level with many career wins (10x winner) sneaks into this race with the “not won a race since April 25^th eligibility.  

The number should stay high in the double digit category given the recent finishing positions and numbers for PALACE MAGIC and the complexion of this field. That includes class droppers: #7 MOMENT TO SHINE with the big change and logical DROP however massively noted from the most recent allowance though looking to find where she fits and given the recent figures since returning from the layoff this move is reasonable, though still needs to run an improved race here. #4 HONOR HIS HALF quickly reclaimed and back to the level with the place finishes during the first part of July coming up short late at the shorter 5.5f distance and back to 6f here – likely to find pace company with #2 LOST SUNSET as well.

The class DROP is reasonable for #3 TIME BREAK one that finds the overall change in class despite closer to a lateral change from the recent FP races when looking at par from those June and July starts. The change in par is noted for #6 RUNNERS HEAT one that finds a lower par than her two most recent starts and while a reasonable “longshot” to win could be upgraded on that front while also slightly under the radar to be dismissed by the public. 

Another race shape projected contentious with the Fire rating and above average 58 SpeedRate. Both #4 LAVENDER EARL and #7 MAHONEY ROAD bring in early speed while #6 CONI’S COUP tends to be at the best with an assertive ride and could see that tactical change here. Those runners contesting the early pace (Q1 Circles) should set up for a first run tracking trip.

#1 WOODCOCK FLIGHT perhaps the most “obvious” in that role and returning from the show BLANKET finish at the higher $20k claiming level earlier this month. Looking at the Plot they share a position and shape to #2 RIVER REDEPTION bringing in current form and figures to compete in this spot with a live rider in L. Colon aboard.

#5 DAPPER DUDE likely overlooked of that set and similar on the Surface/Distance Plot. They return with form for this second start of the cycle  and remaining on the turf arguably their preferred surface though limited starts on the grass especially when considering finding the right placement for their abilities at the same time. Similar could be stated for #3 DIAMOND DAVE returning to the for the first time this year and just a second time since 2023. 

Tricky race given the complexion of the field and many unproven at the course and distance. #1 SHADY MCGEE has that covered and while they have some physical distance limitations when in the right spot with the right trip they can overcome. Those factors could fall into place here returning to the turf and O. Mojica jumping aboard, a rider that has fit them well in the past.

#3 TEMPER TANTRUM the most obvious of the current form surface/distance runners and capable of pairing wins right back in this spot. They bring in a strong late kick with the Square shown on the Plot, however the early pace is one of those tougher reads given the surface/distance changes. One of those “wild cards“ being #7 NEON DEION stretching out for just a third time in their career and stamina remaining a question mark.

S. Gonzalez has been aboard NEON DEION in the recent starts (and live mounts for Simonovich) notably shifting to #5 BAKENAKO another with early speed and proven turf form while looking for their first win this season, this could be the time and place for this individual while also given a flow upgrade part of the Fast early/late pace in the 8/3 event.