Handicapper Tips & Picks

This stacks up as a solid MSW event with the juveniles in this field as five of the six have a start under their belt and all showing run in their own ways in each race.

#1 BIG D recorded a B OptixGRADE in their debut, a race over the turf however was entered back on 7/20 for the main track and late GATE scratch restless in the gate. On 8/3, they stayed on as a the BOS tracked by the winner, Biagoddess the lone runner in the field with experience making a CLOSE/B+ win.

That 8/3 event, a race a common race with two others: #1 GOGH one that should benefit from the experience/PREP. The rail draw might not be the most ideal however GREEN first out breaking SLOG made a WIDE MOVE ultimately should handle more ground when given that opportunity. #4 THIEVER also GREEN in running especially from the break (SLOG, TROUBLE_S) and in running had TROUBLE as they jumped over and shied away from something inside. They appear to have come out of the race well working a half mile on 4/21 and mixing things up with a rider change.

The rider change has S. Gonzalez sticking with #3 BRIDGE CLASSIC coming out of the 7/20 event, a scratched down three horse field. BRIDGE CLASSIC was very fractious in the GATE, does hold a positive work since and by default had to RUSH stalked by the winner, Chi Town Prince finishing in a photo with the other L. Rivelli, Chief Morter.

Biagoddess, trained by L. Rivelli represented by a pair in here including another filly, #6 GOOD AND NAUGHTY a first start on this circuit though has been training at Hawthorne prior to the FP debut. The change in post could be appositive going off the 8/12 visuals with the TROUBLE_S and RUSH inside taking some KICKBACK- behind the pacesetting winner, Midnight Ms. #5 LAST MOON certainly has the first out trainer stats however does have some gaps in the works and outside of the recent half-mile 8/21 gate move, all other published moves at the 3f distance. 

The early pace should be contentious (Fire) though moderate pace suggesting horses that have some tactical speed can compete even under this dynamic. #3 NEW YEAR SURPRISE was B+/dominant at this condition $5k level back on 7/10 holding their own with the B- at the $12.5k level earlier this month, 8/10. Looking at the Plot they have enough tactical speed to track behind #2 FLYING SAMURAI and #4 BLURT and given the rail draw #1 CONTRABANDISTA (Q3 Surface/Distance) could be out looking to contest the lead here as well.

Sticking with the Plot, tough to dismiss the Large Square, #5 MCMONEY returning to the main track and slight 49-day freshening. Both factors could land them back in the right time and place, similar placement and timing with the 4/20 win and race they were claimed out of and stepped up in class after. Their held their own in the races given the placement all around and can be upgraded from the 7/10 trip racing TACTIC- (rider change here to journeyman A. Santos) racing X_WIDE with the NO_KEEP and NO_PUSH.

#6 ICE AXE also with Square on Standard (current form) from Q4 off-the-pace. They were asked to race closer to the pace on 8/7 and able to do from the inner post making a RUSH and the race shape Very Slow early and late. 

In terms of Class and Speed, there is not much between the two projected favorites, #1 LA REYNITA and #2 ACOUSTICAT. Looking at the Plot, both are capable of winning with their respective runstyle and trips.

#1 LA REYNITA will be tested to transfer their competitive races and Standard Plot form to the Surface/Distance though with just the lone two turn route MSW race back on 3/19 at the FG that race while a C raced at 60-1 and slight flow upgrade chasing a Fast early pace.

ACOUSTICAT finds a slightly lower race par here and numbers overall consistent to fit with today’s par and should have their best chance with those factors to clear the maiden conditions, however, does not project much price compensation.

#3 UNKEPT PROMISES can be upgraded from the 8/7 turf and common race. They had a legitimate TROUBLES+ taking significant contact at the break before making a RUSH Into a Very Fast early pace and was NO_PUSH through a Very Fast late pace. #6 ROARING VIXEN given a longshot look in that spot returning to the turf, something they find a change here back to the main track. Class is still a question mark on #4 TRIPLE MOON returning for a second start here. #5 CATNIP HILL also with the class test, steps up to the MSW level from the recent MCL events, events noted with an EX on 8/20 and rebounding on 8/14 both races a similar par to today’s event and slightly below on contender status. 

#2 RIETTA brings in consistent form and figures at the class, surface/distance to fit as a contender. They find a slight change with a lower par despite running under a similar conditions on 8/3. Not only a higher par on the day the outside post forced a WIDE RUSH, but often times also a tougher trip to overcome on this grass course. Stablemate #1 WEDNESDAY ADDAMS is lighter on figures though still lightly raced sophomore and overall one that likely has yet to run to her potential and racing will get her there.

#4 SURPRISE ME AGAIN like RIETTA is a legit contender for many of the same reasons and the class edge over #3 CHEVAL B and #6 MULSANNE stepping up in class/par. SURPRISE ME AGAIN brings in consistent form and figures from the common allowance races and the lower par here with the majority of the field IL-bred rivals. That includes #5 MADELYN ATTACK for the live connections picking up the upset win getting up over her stablemate back on 7/13 and reunites with S. Gonzalez following the 8/3 start racing as a 58.8-1 longshot LONE with NO_FINISH and NO_LINE.

The lone MTO #7 AUTISM COMPASSION moves up with that surface switch and should they draw in  with that change a major, major contender.  

The main contenders #4 FAITHFUL RULER and #8 RUSSIAN TO WIN look well-spotted taking the class drop in this spot. RUSSIAN TO WIN has held their form and figures fits ABOVE on Speed and Plot/pace while that massive upgrade ABOVE+ on Class. The drop is less of a concern in this case with the lack of Red/negative keywords and even in the pattern this season going back to a TROUBLE trip on 6/29 from the rail and another rail draw on 7/31. A rider change also suggesting positive intent with L. Colon aboard for the win closing out the 2024 campaign in October at FP.

FAITHFUL RULER also with some changes returning to the Hawthorne main track for the first time since last summer. The races here in 2024 all at a much higher allowance level and consistent figures that fit on par here. That includes the races this season; a flow upgrade while returning from the layoff with the front wraps back on 4/26 and their early speed should be on display right from the jump with J. Felix back aboard.

FAITHFUL RULER could be the “bos” though projects to find contention with other E/EP runstyle types in this field. #5 RISKY BOY one of those though is not a “need the lead” type and given the complexion of this field, post position change and current form cycle could look for a tracking trip and preferred to #9 SONNYISNOFUNNY given a similar Plot position/shape.

An honest early pace not only should suit RUSSIAN TO WIN off the Plot visuals, though could find a better scenario for #6 LINE TO GAIN wheeling right back from the 8/17 race when forced to RUSH taken out of their runstyle on the day and can assist here on fitness. The trip could also move up #3 CHAMPAGNE MIKE one that has struggled to find where they fit and a top effort to contend though took the front wraps off on 8/17 and could be a positive sign they are moving forward all around. 

#2 OCEAN POINTE checks the boxes as a contender with Speed and Class ABOVE for this level and the right runstyle ABOVE+ on Plot/pace. If just looking at running lines and finishing position “on paper” they might appear a horse “off form” since returning from the extended 504-day layoff; however following those races visually (OptixNOTES) shows a pair of WIDE trips against a higher class/par at TP and caried to strong number returning to the turf at KEE and near “excuse” with the TROUBLES+ on 5/25 at CD, their most recent start.

Their Plot position in Quad II, above the ParLine suggests the slight edge on trip over the other Squares (Q4) #7 LEADING THE CHARGE for C. Block and #6 EVEN THE WIND to consider.

That Square (stronger finishing ability proportionally to Circles in today’s conditions) flight tracking where the early pace contested with those Q1 runners: #1 ALL CHOKED UP and #3 GOLDEN BANDIT return as a X_FLOW upgrades from the 7/3 common race they exit and freshened from the 56-day break though could find similar right back in against each other here. #5 LAMPLIGHTER JACK also given an X_FLOW upgrade exiting their most recent start three weeks ago at ELP in a solid allowance event. They are not a “need the lead” type and could sit off that pair though their natural early speed playing a role in the Fire Contention and honest 54 SpeedRate. It is worth noting overall with those Q1 Circle runners all X_FLOW that playing a role in their shape here. 

The lower Snowflake Contention and SpeedRate should assist the trip for #1 GRAND ILLUSION with their early speed and a massive threat to take this field gate-to-wire. They could find themselves uncontested unless the tactical change (TACTIC-) comes into play for #4 SLAVA UKRAINI from their most recent starts looking for more assertive handling.

Trip/pace will be key with main contender #5 DANVILLE returning with the change in Class (ABOVE+) and competitive figures while ABOVE on Speed. Some intent should follow here, second off returning to the level they were claimed back on 7/20 with a rider change also in play. While Plot/pace is just AVERAGE- with the Plot position/shape here they can still find the right trip though perhaps some price compensation can be required with that noted; and similar for #2 GLOBAL EMPIRE while sitting ABOVE on Speed and Class keying off the B OptixGRADE at this level back on 7/31.

#3 SIXWILLBERICH has early speed and by default again could be tracking the pace, something that has carried them in their recent starts with the Slow early and Slow late race shapes. A similar Plot position and shape for #6 ALVIN one that should be longer odds not only of the two but overlooked overall and bring in current form with that subtle change in Plot position shape here sitting ABOVE+ as a value include. 

Starting the analysis with ML favorite and new face in #5 COOL LESTER SMOOTH brings in upside with the changes for this race and third career start. From their debut breaking SLOG and showing a sneaky CLOSE while also suggesting they can benefit from a STRETCH in distance and even some class weakness. They will find the change in distance and class returning from the 8/10 MSW event while making a positive PRERACE+ appearance despite being WARM and in running did not handing taking KICKBACK on the dirt racing COVER behind horses, things that can clearly change here.

The STRETCH in distance was projected for #1 BLACK RUSSIAN back on 7/17 and stepped up with the B- CLOSE on 8/10 behind their pacesetting stablemate winner, Money Agent on the day. That 8/10 common race with others in this field with #3 CASH APP MIKE also making a late SAVED MOVE recording a the same B- OptixGRADE despite the change in finishing position from the pair. A touch higher than the C+ from #8 SAN ANTON though to be fair and even with the rail draw was parked WIDE making an early (TACTIC-) MOVE and NO_FINISH as a result. L. Colon sticks with #6 CANTARITO one that chased NO_COVER behind the Very Fast early pace of Money Agent before NO_KEEP and based on physicality might appreciate ONE_TURN.

#7 KISS MY CHARMS brings upside from the two starts to date. They debuted over a good rated turf course, a tough task asked for the two turns as well and especially when factoring a WIDE trip. They went looking for grass right back for the second start and stayed in with the WEATHER impacted very poor track conditions on 7/24 and paired with another WIDE trip, overall should continue to hold fitness and should be sitting on a peak effort here.