Handicapper Tips & Picks

Lightly-raced or unraced babies to start the card, I’m going to go with 2-BIG D. He ran well enough to finish second in his career debut. That race took place on turf but he’s bred to handle any surface. Runners from his barn going from turf to dirt win about 26% of the time. 3-BRIDGE CLASSIC, another racing for the second time, sports higher speed figures than top choice. His lone race was on dirt and also finished second, overcoming trouble at the start. 5-LAST MOON has been training well for his career debut. His barn wins with 35% of their first timers, 32% with 2-year-olds and the barn often utilizes Mojica as pilot. Together that have been winning at a 30% clip.  

This race could be tougher than it looks at first glance. 3-NEW YEAR SUPRISE seems like the obvious choice. He crushed the field the last time he raced at this level and he came right back to finish a distant second, though well clear of the third-place finisher while meeting better. But his best efforts could be when he doesn’t have to fight too hard for the lead and there is plenty of other speed in here. Toss out the last couple races of 5-MCMONEY. Thet were contested on turf. Recently he’s been better on the main track. He’s been a good closer and there will be plenty of pace to set things up for him. 4-BLURT and 2-FLYING SAMURI could be fighting it out for the front end but if either gets loose early, he could be hard to catch.  

This does look like the right spot for 2-ACOUSTICAT. Her only money finishes to date have been on turf but she showed dirt ability on tougher circuits. She’s versatile and can either display good speed or display a good closing move. Can finally graduate. 1-LA REYNITA finished in the money in all four Hawthorne races. She finished a distant third as the favorite on turf in last but she had been closer in her prior local starts. She’s probably the best of the speed but she has faded late in her two-turn races. 4-TRIPLE MOON finished well back and only split the field in her debut but she got off to a terrible start and pretty much stayed in the same position throughout the race. But she worked well since and goes from turf to the main track, an often-winning move for this barn. Don’t ignore.  

The weatherman is calling for rain so just to be on the safe side, I’ll select 7-AUTISM COMPASSION. She’s entered for the main track only. She isn’t a lock by any means, if this race does get moved to the main track, but the rest of the fillies and mares in here are primarily turf runners. On turf, you would have to figure 2-RIETTA will be tough. She just never fired in last but she finished second, narrowly beaten, in her prior two races. 4-SUPRISE ME AGAIN finished a bit ahead of Rietta in last but a head behind that rival in their previous race. She closes well at times and the pace of this race promises to be brisk. 1-WEDNESDAY ADDAMS stretches out. She’s probably the quickest of these but she’ll have to carry her speed much farther today.  

8-RUSSIAN TO WIN drops in class. He’s been competitive against better so the size of the drop raises some questions but if he just runs the way he has been lately, he should romp against this field. 4-FAITHFUL RULER tends to run out of gas but he is quick and he probably has only one to beat to the lead. 5-RISKY BOY could be as quick as Faithful Ruler. Like that rival he tends to fade late but there’s always a chance he could hang on if he manages to secure an uncontested lead.  

7-LEADING THE CHARGE has been meeting some tough rivals. The last four winners he faced all came right back to win their next starts. This Indiana bred has had only one previous local start, a third-place finish here last year. He’ll be trying to run them down late. 1-ALL CHOKED UP is a threat to wire the field. He got caught up in a speed duel in last and tired a bit late but that was his first start of 2025. That race could be the perfect tightener he needed. 5-LAMPLIGHTER JACK was outgunned when he was sent to Ellis for his last start but that race was against better and featured an insane early pace for a race at the distance. However, he was a sharp stalking winner in his previous start here, racing for this trainer for the first time. The pace of this race will be brisk but not overwhelming. Guessing he’ll bounce back with a big effort. 

3-SIXWILLBERICH has been an incredibly consistent runner that simply doesn’t win often. He’s had eight races this year and finished in the money six times without winning. In his career, he’s had seven races at the distance and only won one, while finishing in the money another five times. But that could be about to change. He was claimed from last by a barn that wins with over 40% of their first-time claims. Maybe his luck is about to change. 2-GLOBAL EMPIRE, on the other hand visited the winner’s circle often before this year, despite usually racing over his head. He was claimed two starts back and finished third in last, his first start for this barn. He went off as the odds-on favorite in that race. Has a great chance to make amends. It is worth noting, however, that he raced with front wraps in last, something he hadn’t done in at least a year. 4-SLAVA UKRAINI is probably the best of the speed. He’s been taking on better lately and having little success but he did finish second the last time he ran at this level.  

Without having a clear idea of how this race will set up, I’m happy to defer to a Chris Block runner that is dropping in class. 5-COOL LESTER SMOOTH drops and stretches out. He appears to hold a substantial pace advantage over his rivals and he gets the right rider to utilize that speed. 3-CASH APP MIKE finished in the money in his last two turf races. Late runner should get plenty speed ahead of him. Could roll by. 8-SAN ANTON showed some ability in Ireland when he was younger and he ran well in his first US start but he hasn’t shown much since. But he is always eligible to wake up.