Handicapper Tips & Picks

#3 MIDTERM comes into this race as the most experience and most accomplished and that edge could carry here. At times they have shown ability and upside off their trips while not always the most consistent. There has been intent for the turf and just the two grass starts with less than ideal timing, going back to last season with the layoff that followed and the layoff return coming back this year in July to suggest they have not had their best chance on the surface.

#6 FINAL COUNTDOWN showed run last season and progression in the limited two starts as a juvenile. They struggled with the gaps in works coming back later that season and this year show just limited published works though consistency and stamina moves in the three drills to suggest race readiness.

Trainer S. Childers has been sending out live runners as of late and land here with #5 MONROE ATTACK for their debut and on the grass where they have had that overall success.

A. Hernandez sends out a pair with both #1 TONYS KINGDOM and #4 ANTHONY THE GREAT. Both runners were entered on 8/10 though only ANTHONY THE GREAT the only one to start and some excuse as they were WARM and fractious in the GATE while facing the experience and class edge of the winner, Oy Gevald. Going into that 8/10 start it was notable with the smaller sample of FTS overall though majority of success on the dirt in IL and the pair scheduled for the turf today.

Trainer T. Tracy also with a FTS #2 PRINCE BEN has a 15 horse sample at Hawthorne of FTS older runners with one win and two place finishes on the dirt. This is not a higher percentage angle though not enough to dismiss and those runners with success or higher recorded figures often show early speed as something to consider in terms of race shape. 

Overall there are some reservations with the double 45/46 day layoffs in the recent two starts on #3 MISS SAIPAN though overall in the right spot to compete. She is at the right class level for her abilities with speed figures on par and in terms of pace a favorable runstyle with tactical speed – tactical speed when looking at the Plot to track behind projected pacesetter #4 ANNA AFTER MIDNITE and look for first run on a horse that has a NO_FINISH history and Large Circle to validate that here.

With A. Meraz represented not only with ANNA AFTER MIDNITE but with #6 WRITTEN CONSENT perhaps a bit on the PLODDY side though brings in current form under a similar par and the outside draw in this field can assist with their trip.

The opposite post position for #1 FAST N HAPPY also holding current form and progressive speed figures for this third start of the current form cycle. She has not has as much success from the inside/rail in the past however tough to hold the post as the lone hurdle as a higher class was often paired at the time and looking at speed figures that appeared a higher bar to clear than the rail.

Number wise #5 REBA ATTACK has select figures on par and form coming into this race from the races this year while also given a slight 38-day freshening since the open $10k turf sprint claiming event last month. While technically a higher class, the par lower than what she faces here and slight subtle rise on that front. 

#1 I’M HUNGOVER shows up on a different race pattern from others in this field and “new” face on that front. Placement suggests intent, looking for these MCL conditions on the turf last month for the second start on 7/20. She made a positive PRERACE+ appearance and TROUBLE making a MOVE in running with the race won by the lone MTO, Ballybay Beauty.

Looking at the group from the 8/14 common race: #8 WW BEST OF TIMES  comes into this race with the more established form and off the place finish under similar conditions last month, however, did have the course profile in their favor. In contrast, stablemate #2 HELEN OF C’VILLE (one that presented TURF visuals 7/15) suffered adversity with an X_WIDE trip racing X_BIAS and of the two did not have her best chance on the day. She still presents upside and at longer odds of the two can be easily projected while also perhaps some intent with the rider change to S. Gonzalez.

#4 TRINITYTHREEINONE compromised with the pattern of SLOG and lack of early speed racing against the dynamic put in a strong inside late CLOSE and should continue to give an honest representation here while trip from off the pace again should be considered.

#10 ENTICING OPTION is not from the common race last month though met common race on 6/26 with TRINITYTHREEINONE and ENTICING OPTION finishing in front of WW BEST OF TIMES in outcome. That effort at longer odds was not out of nowhere going back to the start of her career on the turf presented upside from the initial two grass starts and a repeat of the 6/26 effort can be projected here, however one that again might be a touch below of a top contender.

Similar status for (plot upgrade) #9 WAHIDA OF MARDAN (and #6 COLLIE WRAYS KITTY, #7 LAUREN’S WAR) in this spot though both on the TURF with the added ground suits their physicality; however softer on numbers and class, though longer odds perhaps runners to keep in the deeper underneath consideration. 

Most of the this field has been knocking around at this conditional $5k claiming level and “on paper” can appear similar in terms of outcome and figures. On class, #2 RACARINO has the edge of the group, a horse that has been running in higher par events and similar to today’s race giving them the edge in here on that front. They also fit today’s race shape; looking at the Plot they bring in tactical speed and finishing (Square) ability to track projected pacesetters #3 STRANGE ARRANGE, #5 SAND MOUNTAIN and #6 WINGING WAYS and RACARINO to hold first run.

That trip could be key not only with deeper Q4 Square closer #1 LAND MARK DEAL, but perhaps more dangerous their stablemate #4 HURTS SO BAD – one that does require a return to top form though fits at this level, finding a class  change and timing coming back on this circuit and can find a similar tracking trip Q2/4 however closer to the ParLine and should not be far off leaders at the first/second call.  

#3 WINGS OF GOD makes their local debut, though in the right spot for their abilities and in hands with the connections involved to compete. They moved up on the turf earlier this year following the claim on the turf at TAM – an EX on 3/23 and BTL/TRAFFIC on 4/6 and consistent numbers since. They had slight adversity earlier this month at HS Indy with the SLOG TROUBLE_S, also their first start in against winner with a much higher par than today’s race to move up naturally on that front.

Class wise this is a slight change for #4 A P BLAZING GREEN one that is established overall and projected to get attention from the public especially with the 8/3 recorded speed figure sticking out on top of the past performances. The 53-1 on the day and higher odds throughout most of their career could see them favored for the first time since their maiden score last June.

Number wise #5 MONEY AGENT is right there with A P BLAZING GREEN for the most part and even when isolating their turf sprint races. They will be tested to repeat outcome coming back from the maiden win while taking on winners, though given their overall foundation they should run consistently with the other starts this season and puts them right in the mix.

Longshot #8 FREEDOM EMPIRE is worth a mention coming back from the 8/10 race. They raced erratically and need to clean things up on that front though could be a combination of factors on that day that change slightly here. They were just one of two sophomores against older and physically WARM as well acting up in the GATE. The rail draw seemed to force the hand with a HARD_LEAD and brief duel and after backing up out of contention in running continued to run on GALLOP+ after the wire. A rider change comes into play with F. Reyes back aboard and change in post moving from one extreme on the inside to the furthest outside here. 

The contentious Fire dynamic paired with the 96 SpeedRate brings pace into the race as a prime handicapping factor. Seven of the eight runners sit above the ParLine (#8 READTHECLIFFNOTES the lone runner below) along with five of the eight sharing the EP runstyle and position to the left of the y-axis.

That upgrades the tracking Squares with #7 HOODLUM capable of pairing back to back wins. They held back class and key timing off a slight freshening. They raced closer to the pace (POCKET) on 8/10 due to the rail draw and dynamic with the Very Slow early/late race shape. Their back class and consistency suggest they can repeat here. They have had success with today’s Fire/SpeedRate giving them the slight edge over rival #2 C F V BULLET in this scenario.

Looking at the Plot, the overlay with HOODLUM and #2 C F V BULLET one that brings overall and current form returning from the layoff with consistent speed figures on par. While today’s race shape, they figure, however trip and tactics will still be key to rate and finish. 

Even with the Sun Contention in play, it is paired with a lower SpeedRate to suggest some tactical speed is key along with finishing ability. Looking at both Standard and Surface/Distance Plot, #9 MIDNIGHT SPECIAL should have this race set up ideally for their runstyle. They bring in current form this season on the grass, while taking a slight rise with a higher par in play from the two other grass starts.

Keeping with the Plot theme, Surface/Distance upgrades #5 CYCLONE ATTACK one that can be left in the mix with that positive in play on Plot as well as Class ABOVE for this group. Some price compensation should be required with the long 332-day layoff in play, though the barn sending out live is a positive trend in this case. Their stablemate #7 MAJESTIC ATTACK does not have those same advantages while also returning from a long layoff landing BELOW- on Speed, Plot/pace and Class.

#2 ALL ABOUT TONIGHT could be hoping for a surface switch which would be a key upgraded to their Standard (current form) Plot position as a Q1 Square, a lack of Surface/Distance data in this case with the two turf sprints being their debut at SA back in June 2023 and last June (2024) still over a year ago, here at Hawthorne also in MCL company racing X_FLOW on the day, playing a role in outcome.

Both D. Reid runners #6 DEVILS RED and #10 GRAND HIDEWAY could have hurdles on trip though not out of it on that front and in terms of current form both fit – a lack of “red” with consistent figures and Grades to endorse here – again with price compensation.

#4 JOE THE TAILOR does not hold a pace advantage "on paper" though many times that can change with tactics as the gates open. On class and speed they can compete here and surface versatile should that come into play. In addition, they suggest positive intent with the 45-day freshening, similar timing with the 7/6 win for a horse that appears to appreciate a little more time between starts.