Handicapper Tips & Picks

Starting the analysis with the L. Rivelli pair: #1 BIAGODDESS has shown progression race-to-race on visuals and outcome though will be tested to take those efforts to the next level on the speed figure department here; #3 TIZ CHINA recorded the higher figure in the debut place effort and showing class with the maiden win and experience in 8/17 start giving her a look with that foundation and intent wheeling back against winners just three weeks apart once again.

#2 TUM TAP returns from a near two month freshening (56-days) to take on winners. They showed run on debut behind their well-intended stablemate winner, Kickin, validating the effort to find their own win on 7/10. Making an EASY_LEAD that day things could change here not only with the L. Rivelli pair but also including #5 MIDNIGHT MS one that was in a HARD_LEAD and LONE after acting restless in the GATE for their front running FP debut win last month.

#5 THEN NOW ‘N ALWAYS takes on winners as a maiden here and that hurdle to clear though to her credit showed run (B-) while racing GREEN and making a MOVE after the SLOG/TROUBLE_S one that should benefit from racing (PREP) and added ground/STRETCH going forward. 

#4 WILD DREAMS wheels right back looking for redemption after a legitimate EX – EXCUSE on 8/17. The trip was compromised at the GATE fractious in and broke in a tangle/TROUBLES+ with contact on her way out. WILD DREAMS was passively ridden and taken out of her normal front running runstyle – one she looks to hold a forward pace advantage with today shown as a clear Q1 Square the only horse above the ParLine. With that early speed the next flight of #1 TOUR DE’ PORT, #2 WAVE OF MEMORIES and #3 ILLY SIMZ could all be in chase mode.

In terms of ILLY SIMZ she had an EX – EXCUSE in her own right back on 7/13 and not quite an “excuse” on 8/3 though adversity with TROUBLE following a RUSH and NO_PUSH after the NO_KEEP (and NO_LEAD) late. The extended sprint distance should be respected here and where TOUR DE’ PORT does not hold any other strong edge she might be the best suited from the mentioned group to tackle the 6.5f sprint here.

Stamina and change in class could be the key for #5 LA MULA UNO one that has not shown much outside of the pattern of SLOG TROUBLE_S in the two races to date. Things change here significantly with the class drop, one turn distance and post nothing the outer draw in both race, both races with that higher par and should have her best chance to step up in with today’s group. 

#1 SPICY ITALIAN has struggled as of late to string races together and given the 24-day turnaround here figures a positive change. She does not hold any strong Class or Speed edge (AVERAGE+) though has some level of consistency throughout her days on the track and the rail draw in this case can assist on trip. That can be upgraded with today’s Surface/Distance an overlap with projected favorite #2 OH MACARENA with SPICY ITALIAN presenting value as the higher odds of that pair.

#5 DEAL’EM AND WEEP will also look to turn the tables on OH MACARENA returning from the 8/14 common race. In terms of form cycle, DEAL’EM AND WEEP was coming off a peak effort with the B+ win back in July and perhaps timing less than ideal along with the WARM_UP noted and OH MACARENA getting the right first run inside/SAVED tracking trip with the track profile/BIAS. 

Started to see a positive form cycle pattern with #1 ROSE’S WISE despite the change in class dropping down while taking on winners. The shorter 5.5f sprint distance paired with the rail and TACTIC- on 8/17 behind first run winner, Two Timer. Today’s SpeedRate slightly higher to track the Q1 flight and the extra half furlong of ground in their favor.

The same slight change in distance comes back into play for #7 KIND KISMET returning to Hawthorne for a belated second start this season. Their first go around was back on 5/11 coming off the 234-day layoff, shipping to CBY after and running in higher par events to suggest if there is a time and place to return to contender ways, this allows their best chance.

As far as early speed/pace, both #4 SHARP ATTACK and #5 RUMBRANDT project to take up that role. While SHARP ATTACK can be upgrade with the change in class, since taking on winners in the two August starts, RUMBRANDT can be given a flow upgrade – part of the Fast early pace in the 8/17 race.

A contentious early pace could assist their M. Slager stablemate #2 LIL CARRIE D one that will be tested to run back to her faster races from the past and step up from the recorded figures this season.  Similar hurdle on numbers for #6 JOYZELLA though to her credit has shown some number progression this season and less than ideal TACTIC- in the 8/17 common race with the 5.5f distance shorter than their ideal as well. 

The Sun Contention paired with the higher 58 SpeedRate requires finishing ability to upgrade the “Squares” in this field. #1 HARD TO FATHOM with the rail draw should save ground behind the first flight and projected pacesetters in #2 CODE NAME and #3 MAN ON ATTACK to sit first run. The change in class is closer to a lateral move and even the subtle change in distance to a flat mile, could be a further key and establishing first run.

That first run likely key and key for where prior rider S. Gonzalez with #6 HAWKS CREEK – a legit contender. They find the change in class and running for a tag for the first time this season. The most is less concerning after picked up last season for $30k and has been entered twice under similar claiming conditions since the 7/3 allowance however scratched both times with those events taken off the turf.

Their stablemate #4 SHARP STICK also can show early speed and perhaps takes up that role. Though at the same time, they are worth keeping in the mix at higher odds. They have been given a 35-day freshening since the 8/3 start, a race with a similar par and in the past SHARP STICK has been competitive under similar conditions especially in the local two turn turf starts.

#5 KING OF THE PALACE fits overall though has some question marks returning from the long layoff while also running first time for a claiming tag. While they did break their maiden off the layoff last July, number wise it was not one of their higher figures and improved in that speed department with racing after that start – a similar pattern when starting off their career as a juvenile into the sophomore season. 

#5 CANTARITO moves up as the “new face” at this level. In addition to the change in class, the return to the ONE_TURN distance appears a positive for this individual based on their physicality. They can be upside keying off the sprint back in June; a first start following a 225-day break which was run under poor WEATHER impacted track conditions. To their credit, they recorded a B- OptixGRADE with adversity from the break (SLOG, TROUBLE_S) with the rail draw and shorter 5.5f sprint distance.

#7 MARK MY MEMORY also finds a change in class and distance while also making a belated return to Hawthorne. They wheel right back in a week and slight flow-upgrade as part of the Fast early pace on 8/30 at CBY. WARM on the day and perhaps not their ideal distance while also racing off Lasix that day as well could have factored in outcome and visuals.

As far as the local group, #3 RUMBLING brings in the most consistent and competitive form for the races at this level. With that said, they have come up short on the win end or a winning effort without much in terms of excuse though could find the right group today.

The R. Rosas barn also represented by #1 KUZ I CAN MAN one that debuted under similar conditions to today’s race back on 7/6 and not quite as race ready running GREEN and missing the break/VSLOG while racing as the only FTS in that race. #2 BODADDY was also very GREEN in their 7/27 debut with their race over at the break (SLOG, TROUBLE_S) and also noting the track conditions impacted by earlier WEATHER playing favorably towards horses forwardly placed and many on the day not handling kickback. 

#1 TAUNTING ran a “winning” race with the B OptixGRADE recorded a this level on 8/7. They made a positive PRERACE+ appearance despite getting a little WARN and in running had to start-and-stop making a RUSH for position getting SHUFFLE and late MOVE into a VS/Very Slow early pace to finish together at the wire with pacesetting winner, Journey.

#2 IRIS’S DREAM also recorded a competitive race at this level on the circuit last September in a race with a higher par than today’s event and slightly higher par then the 8/7 race to upgrade their B- OptixGRADE on the day landing here. While they will again give up recency returning from the long layoff, number wise the all around consistency makes them a fit and returning from a mildly productive event back in March at GP.

In today’s race shape, TAUNTING holds tactical speed and likely to track behind #4 TIME MUSE one that will be tested more so on Class than trip/Plot in this race shape. Class, paired with value is the prime knock on #5 BETTERA as a prime contender. Number wise BETTERA has run “faster” in their allowance races compared to #3 CANYON STREAK while both pairing B- OptixGRADES. 

From the group with experience #8 ZEE holds a strong edge and near 10+ Speed figure advantage over those other rivals coming out of the 8/17 common race and even with #7 GOOD AND NAUGHTY stepping up on this circuit from the FP debut. ZEE should benefit from the racing experience and change in post nothing the TROUBLE_S and RUSH while making an inside/SAVED MOVE for place behind pacesetting chalk winner, Tiz China with ZEE closing the gap on them at the wire.

FTS #5 MOTOWN SOUND worked an efficient 21.3 back in the June same and has consistently since. They bring in a positive, progressive series in terms of distance with mix of both speed and stamina to come out race ready. This will be just the third runner this season for trainer D. Poulos – both Baladine and Professor Higgins (picking up the win on 9/4) have run consistent all meet. In terms of the FTS category, this is not an area the barn has mess around with much in the last five years, though a deeper look back has shown success to suggest capable here in this category.

#6 DREAM EAGLE also appears well-prepared for this debut. They bring in a progressive published series in terms of speed and stamina picking up a live rider for this barn in I. Hernandez – a pairing that has had success this season while often showing early speed in those runners as well.

The board could be a tell for #4 TIA LUPE as the E. Lopez barn is capable with FTS and appeared live taking strong wagering support on Thursday with a debut runner, one that was an unfortunate late scratch. #9 DIFFICULT DECISION worked 10.1 back in April. The work tab is light even for M. Perez; the debuting runners often show up with limited and shorter distance published works.