Handicapper Tips & Picks

#1 COMISKEY PARK fits as a strong contender in this race. They find significant class relief and racing today for the $5k tag is something that will likely find attention from the neighboring trainers to consider a claim. This marks the second start of the current cycle and coming off a WIDE trip over the turf last month, a tougher trip on this course while also not quite their ideal distance at 5f. Looking at the OptixPLOT, the race shape should suit their runstyle with the Large tracking Square behind the Q1 first flight. While the drop could be taken as a concern at this point, this horse has been very productive for these connections; connections who picked him up for $12.5 back in the summer of 2021 (AP) and race competitively wherever placed and often in tougher allowance races. Those events appear too tough at this point and need to be reasonable with the placement for a horse that has been so good and good to them over the years. 

The edge in recency gives COMISKEY PARK the edge in this case from #2 LATIN CASINO one that otherwise stacks up well not just with that main rival but at this level and group. Trip appears better suited towards COMISKEY PARK as well with #5 SAND MOUNTAIN capable of keeping LATIN CASINO honest up front. 

Tactical speed and recency can also upgrade #4 GABAGOOL in this case. While they bring in early speed the Surface/Distance Plot position/shape suggest they can work out a trip in today's race shape. 

A contentious pace would be beneficial to #7 ALVIN in this dynamic. The Q4 Square suggests they will be running on late, while it could be tougher with that trip on the win end, they can be left in the mix at longer odds. 

#6 DIXIE PENNY fits as a contender in this race. Looking at the Plot, she brings in tactical speed and strong finishing ability as a Large Q1 Square. The outside post drawn outside of rivals #1 TIME BREAK and #4 MAMBA OUT could allow DIXIE PENNY to track that pair if needed and does not need the lead. On Speed (figures), she checks that box the lone runner in that field with that ABOVE designation in part to the three most recent numbers highlighted in green sitting on/above today's par. Form cycle suggests she might be the type that requires just a little more time between starts to run a top effort and has that here from the 40-day freshening. She had that timing after the two month break, 60-days into the 7/17 race and win/B and some regression (GALLOP-) perhaps after that effort and back with the just a little over two weeks. 

Of the two S. Childers runners, #3 REBA ATTACK with the progressive form cycle/OptixGRADES and local form holds the edge over #7 FREEDOM ATTACK despite coming in off a recent win. The Plot also validates that analysis with REBA ATTACK a Square (FREEDOM ATTACK Q4 Circle) in this race dynamic. 

#5 JAMAICAN TRAFFIC another with finishing ability (Square) in today's race shape and also from the recent OptixNOTES should benefit from the slight stretch in distance for this longer bodied type and subtle change in draw as well. 

The Sun Contention paired with the high 75 SpeedRate is crucial for the Q4 Squares, #7 TRINITYTHREEINONE and #8 CALLAS. The progression this season is key for TRINITYTHREEINONE coming right back in 11-days from the MCL win as she could require that pattern of improvement again if a faster race is necessary here. CALLAS makes a belated return to the turf, however, based on those prior grass races she fits on both speed figures and class and could be intent for returning trainer, B. Cook as well as noted placement looking for two turns and turf before the surface switch on 7/31.

Trip could be every bit as favorable for #5 POLSKA SUE in this spot and to come right back and pair up wins after breaking her maiden last month. POLSKA SUE has tactical speed which could be key on pace over some of her main rivals in this field. While she does not show as "favorable" on the Plot as a Large Q1 Circle, that is in part to the races shapes on 6/26 (Fast early/late) and again on 8/7 (VF early/late) playing a "lack of finish" role. 

#8 DANVILLE can be upgraded after the scratches as prime Q4 Square with Fire Contention and 50 SpeedRate with the other three in Q1 above the ParLine as Circles.  They wheeling right back in two weeks with a rider change after the TACTIC- trip compromising on 8/28.

#2 STRONGER TOGETHER holds tactical speed and positive timing (42-days) to suggest they are sitting on a peak effort. While they can make the lead and compete on the front end, the speed to their inside in #1 MIDNIGHT BLUE NOTE (flow downgrade) paired with the other Q1 speed to their outside in #4 ARGYBARGY BUCK and #5 FLYING SAMURAI could allow STRONGER TOGETHER to rate behind that group and secure first run. 

#3 ICE AXE brings upside and following a positive "every other" form cycle pattern should be sitting on their peak effort. In addition, could look to stalk-and-pounce where trip could carry might be what they require as number wise overall they are a touch light.

#8 COMMISSIONER OSCAR finds a change in class and timing coming back in this spot. They make a return to Hawthorne and with what could be assessed as the first time intent. Earlier this year they needed the race chasing WIDE NO_PUSH in what appeared a PREP from the layoff on 4/13 and followed up with some similar "PREP" look in the $25k N2L in May behind their stablemate winner, Brit Blitz. Those conditioning races proved effective for the CBY meet with a three win season. The win on 7/26 could have been the peak of the cycle with just enough to hold in a photo/BLANKET and off that race could have been still lacking recovery along with the class rise on 8/27. 

There does not appear to be a strong public wagering favorite, a role that #1 WOODCOCK FLIGHT could fall into based on their overall and recent form/finishing positions. they fit today's race looking at the Plot as a horse that could be considered the one to beat. 

Their Plot position on Surface/Distance is in line with #5 MAASAI WARRIOR the two returning from the 8/24 common race recording the same B- OptixGRADE. On that same note, #4 DIAMOND DAVE also recording a B- OptixGRADE putting in a CLOSE and with the SAVED late run for show. 

COMMISSIONER OSCAR could look to take first run on that pair (and #10 TEMPER TANTRUM) looking at the Plot with Q1 Square position on Standard. That position could allow then to track the projected pacesetting pair of #2 VITALE one that looks to hold value based on the ML as a Square over #6 BAKENEKO (Circle) in a similar position furthest left (first call) on the Plot. 

#4 ICE SHARD takes a big drop in class and that change along with the races this season should allow them their best chance to compete. Their form might appear "off" when looking on paper at the running lines and finishing positions, even on numbers. With that said, they turned in a sneaky close after the SLOG returning from the layoff on 6/29 and following that race was against the Slow early/late dynamic in less than ideal WEATHER conditions with rain/poor track conditions - the winner, Bourbon Life from off the pace. While they presented upside off that pair of races, the step up in class on 8/28 had them in deep water and unable to compete under those conditions; yes, even with the three horse field. 

#6 GRAND ILLUSION could hold a pace advantage with perhaps their biggest hurdle being the two week turnaround after a HARD fought battle and tough beat staying on as the BOS X_FLOW in the 8/28 common race.

A pace advantage could assist to overcome in this case and perhaps the that being the edge to get separation on common rival #5 GLOBAL EMPIRE one that race X_FLOW taken out of their runstyle on 8/28; and "new face" in #1 SHADY MCGEE returning to this level from the open $5k claiming even on the turf on 8/24. 

#4 SINE QUA NON might be the best horse in this race and could be tested to prove that here with the hurdles returning from the long layoff and shorter sprint distance with their off-the-pace runstyle. Their class could assist on trip (along with the experienced hand of O. Mojica) and when looking at the Plot there are closer to Q2/Q4 border and not far from the ParLine to suggest they might not be the miles back they would appear to be in here when looking on paper. 

#3 BRODY checks the boxed on class and speed to compete in this field. They could get overlooked with this race on the turf and the public shying away from that "unknown" or even the one start. Their one grass race last year was between long layoff lines and in terms of trip was compromised racing WIDE X_BIAS and despite the 5th place outcome still posted a B- OptixGRADE. 

#1 SAWYER FOX will look to use the rail and early speed (and even a MTO scr of #9 GOOD TO BE PRINCE) to their pace advantage. They were B+/dominant in the win over this course back in June off the layoff and in statebred company. The class and distance change came into play on 7/13 and to their credit they held their own pairing figures and B OptixGRADE despite the place outcome. The connections did enter on 8/14 in a $25k claiming event (was entered for the higher tag) and scratching from that race land here to remain protected.