Handicapper Tips & Picks

#7 ARMY HERO had a legitimate EX - EXCUSE at this level going back to 7/26 at ELP and off that race held their form around two turn with the rise to $50k N2 and two turn distance last month (8/16) at ELP. They return to the $30k N2 level and one turn of the EX should hold value with the recent running lines and upgraded ABOVE+ on Plot. 

#2 MISS COMPLICATED is still a maiden though recorded B OptixGRADE with the place outcome last month at ELP. That trip (SLOG TRAFFIC MOVE WIDE GALLOP+) can be upgraded especially when paired with their debut number at CD back in June and should be sitting on a new top today. 

#5 MYSTIC SPIRIT brings in current form, figures and two turn dirt form to fit on par with today's field in this stakes event. They will be tested on class though can be given a flow upgrade with the outside post and Very Fast early/late pace on 8/30. As they come off the recent turf finishing position and step up in class along with the barn change should hold projected price compensation. 

The class drop moved up bit #5 STARVIN and #7 RUN MATTEO RUN in this spot. Of the two STARVIN given slight edge as one could project upside second off - a similar pattern and rider change back to L. Salles keying off the late season 2024 pattern, the juvenile season. 

J. Campos was aboard STARVIN last month returning from the layoff and shifts over to #3 BEACH FACTOR today. Upside could also be projected here in this second start off the layoff and especially with a more assertive rider given the TACTIC- and MOVE in the 8/17 two-turn turf debut - a race that has held form including two next out winners. 

#2 HAY HAY PAULA holds competitive form under similar conditions going back to 2024 and should land in the right time and place with the return to the extended one turn sprint distance. This change comes following a TROUBLE trip on 8/15 and rider change back to R. Hernandez the rider aboard for the win last December and B- OptixGRADE returning from the layoff this year in May. HAY HAY PAULA has some tactical speed, which will be crucial in today's race shape with #7 LOIS LEN one that will look to use their speed and recent conditioning to attempt to take this field gate-to-wire. 

#4 HOLIDAY WITH AMY does not hold any Class or Speed edge, however their form this season and for the course and distance sits in line with projected ML favorite (remains to be seen if that holds) #5 HARD TO CAPTURE one that would be no surprise though showed NO_FINISH on 8/29 and lacks value in that role. Favoritism could land on #6 KATHERINE'S GEM with the recent place finish and holding a win at this level going back to 5/29, though a lower par on that day that should be factored in value as well.