Handicapper Tips & Picks

The door can be open to a new face while respecting the two runners with experience. There is a contrast in runstyle to the pair with #1 BRIDGE CLASSIC one that has shown some early speed making a RUSH in both of their races to date though will be tested to take that to the turf and with the rail draw. #3 GOGH has a strong late kick though also with their pair of gate issues breaking SLOG in both start making up ground (MOVE/CLOSE) and physically capable in the right conditions to win sprinting though ultimately might prefer added ground/STRETCH.

The group of FTS show up for capable connections and series of works to compete first out. The series for #6 LIEUTENANT CHARM is progressive with the series of works starting off in late July with added distance and given the gate blowout on 9/7 to prepare for this race. Trainer J. Berndt has just a limited sample of FTS at Hawthorne over the past three with just one 2yo debut runner (off the board, though some excuse) and one debuting turf sprinter – that one was a winner, however a 3yo MCL filly. Overall that shows they are capable and of that sample of runners the majority show early speed and even that limited debuting sample on the grass show runners recording figures in line with the experience pair in this field. 

Trainer M. Quinonez sends out a pair and more established, logical type #4 STAR OF KODIAK returning to this level from a B- OptixGRADE in the 8/21 common race and moved up with the change in class on the day. Stablemate #5 MINNESOTA MOON makes their second start of the cycle and has races that fit on par along with early speed to fit today’s race shape. They will be ridden today by C. Herrera, a rider with just 6 mounts this year still looking for a first win and this is their lone mount on the card.

#6 ALTO ROAD appears strong in this spot when looking at the Plot and showing form in the two August starts. With that stated, they will be tested to return to their better efforts and another speed figure improvement for the connections. #3 HATCHET CREEK could fit today’s dynamic better than suggested when looking at the Plot – a position and shape impacted by recent trips and dynamics. The change in class and timing while finding a rider change could suggest a top effort here. 

It is reasonable to make the case with #4 MY LAST ESCAPADE as the most likely winner in this field. They hold competitive races at the level, figures on par and looking at the Plot their runstyle fits with today’s race shape. With that said, their overall record must be considered in what projects to be a shorter number and less exiting.

By the same logic, #3 BLACK RUSSIAN sits as a the logical alternative and even with the route distance the edge over #5 SAN ANTON around two turns here. Those runners returning from the 8/28 common race both positive B- OptixGRADES on the day.

#1 CRUZIN AND CURSIN requires a new top effort in order to win though should they, this would be the time and place. While they might not hold as much overall upside as a 6yo, they find a change in class and overall exiting races with strong Fast/Very Fast race shapes to move up in today’s condition. #2 BEST DRESSED MAN could also be sitting on a peak effort showing a progressive race-to-race pattern returning this season and now holds the route experience coming out of a higher par event than today’s par from 8/21. 

The change in class appears the right move for #3 ROAR OF SILENCE to compete. She showed some class weakness debuting in MSW company last year and off that first start broke her maiden at the MCL level to come right back with the $20k N2 win in their next start. That dominant effort was worth a chance at the allowance level though some class weakness closing out 2024 at that condition and even coming back this year off the layoff in June recorded a win with a lower par and finds a similar par to that event here. They also can be upgraded from the 8/14 trip breaking SLOG and racing X_BIAS off the inside (inside favorable) from off the pace on the day.

#5 FREEDOM LASS also placed to their current abilities and moved up with conditioning and class change on 8/7 – the 8/7 race par higher than the 8/24 race under similar conditions that others in this field exit. Some further intent followed FREEDOM LASS visually removing the front wraps for that second start off the layoff and recorded a competitive number with the B- effort behind a dominant Miss River Rat on the day.

#1 WHAT’S TO DO is not the most consistent with bringing a top effort though has the races in here to compete for the top spot. She brings in recency for this second start of the cycle, dismissed on the board in the 8/14 return and recording a B- OptixGRADE for that effort. This is a slight step up in class though could be a sign of confidence with that change and picking up S. Gonzalez as well – the two teamed up with a live runner in Euclid Avenue earlier this season in their lone pairing. 

#7 FRONTIER MARSHAL stretches out for the first time this season while bringing in consistent B- form from each of the four sprints. They have show early speed, often times by default given the surface/distance and complexion of the field, though does not appear a “need the lead” type and has some runstyle versatility noted with others in this field that has shown some sprint speed.

J. Rednour brings back the pair from the 8/3 common race with #4 JAKES CHANNEL likely to gather the public interest of the pair though would not ignore #1 CHEF RAY WILEY altogether. CHEF RAY WILEY showed up on this circuit last month for the first time and perhaps part of their 8/3 race was lost restless/MANIC in the paddock and something to follow today. In running, they raced “GREEN” first time on the surface though showed run raced inside/SAVED put in a late CLOSE and continued to GALLOP+ out after the wire.

#5 DAISY MAE ATTACK shifts out of F&M company for this race and while giving credit to the improvement on the turf, she will require another move forward from just a number standpoint would require to make up at least 10 points on FRONTIER MARSHAL though figures in line with many others. #6 GOOD YEGG has recorded by far some of the highest figures in this field and while those numbers not too far away this season, they still require that top effort given their overall recorded to belatedly clear this maiden condition. 

#3 TALL GIRL should provide enough price compensation to give a look right back in this spot. She held intent for this level with the change in class on 8/10 and compromised with the trip on the day (TACTIC- X_WIDE) and Very Slow early/late dynamic. The rail draw and Slow early pace also compromised making a WIDE MOVE with the show finish on 8/24. The timing for that race also noted, first off the claim and two week turnaround and now has had more time with H. Rodriguez. The change in race shape also notable and doing back to their most recent win, the 2/22 TP race, they had a similar near identical dynamic with the Snowflake/45 SpeedRate.

TALL GIRL should hold longer odds and longer odds over their stablemate #1 PASTA SALAD RHONDA coming off an open length win and that win at this level three weeks ago. That day PASTA SALAD RHONDA was taking the class drop moving up on that front (along with a PERFECT trip) and noted similar change in class for #4 LADY HELENA on 8/10. LADY HELENA also races today with a barn change though more time between starts and following a positive form pattern, something playing against her in that most recent 8/10 start to rebound to a top here.

In terms of ML favorite, #2 ROYAL LAUGHTER they return with a change in class in this third start of the cycle. While that move technically presents a solid class edge, the par is closer to a lateral move and requires a top effort. Trip wise she did not have the ideal and upgraded from the TACTIC- X_FLOW on the turf last month and reasonable to suggest a lack of conditioning starting off the cycle on 7/27.  

While #4 STAR BLESSING has the test in this spot taking on winners she has shown ability with speed figures on par to suggest they can compete right back in here. The 6/14 debut was sneaky good and upgraded with the Very Fast early/late pace and similar with a subtle “excuse” with the quick timing and far outside post unable to overcome with the WIDE trip at ELP on 7/3. Those efforts coming together and avoiding any “trips” taken to the lead/LONE with a RUSH and separation gate-to-wire though a Very Fast early/late pace.

Many of the others in this field hold competitive races at this similar N1 allowance level and par. That includes #2 SUPRISE ME AGAIN the projected favorite though at higher odds #5 VISIONISTA has the same B- and numbers on her best day comparing the two to make a value case.

#6 RIETTA also recorded a B- OptixGRADE at this level and two turn distance with the BLANKET finish back on 7/13. That race par a touch lower than today and the two C+ OptixGRADE and figures from August require a return to a top to win. Number wise their stablemate #1 WEDNESDAY ADDAMS comes in on the lower end and much improve. As a lightly raced sophomore she holds the upside to do so, though still has those hurdles along with the change in distance and class taking on open company though arguably back on their preferred surface. 

Looking at the Plot, the early pace should be contentious with the Fire rating paired with the higher 70 SpeedRate. The three runners (Standard) in Q1 all present as Circle (lack of finish) to set up for tracking Squares. That sets up ideally for ML, projected favorite #6 SOUL COAXING, one that comes in with current form and upgraded off their open $20k turf claiming event given the TACTIC- WIDE trip back on 8/7.

By that same reasoning in race shape, #3 HANDSOFFTHEGOODS shows up in a similar, near identical Plot position/shape to SOUL COAXING and presenting value of the two in that case. Their current form has been consistent this season and in terms of the surface switch holds buried form, that form shown on OptixGRID though also represented in the Surface/Distance Plot.

The dynamic on 8/17 set up for #2 VINO COURAGIO and a case for them to run on late once again. The close behind the other two requires some racing luck on the win end, though not without another longshot look for a share. That can also carry to #5 REMEMBER THE FEAR one that is Below on Speed figures though from a physical standpoint presents in line with today’s surface/distance and has in their career just limited opportunities, the lone career start on the grass back in May putting in a sneaky CLOSE in that 5^th place.