Handicapper Tips & Picks

#1 LINE TO GAIN brings in upside and buried form. They follow a positive form cycle pattern with more time between starts along with a lower par returning from the 8/28 event showing run after the TROUBLE_S to make a WIDE MOVE in a race with minimal change in running order especially with the top three. LINE TO GAIN also removed the front wraps in that event and in this spot reunites with S. Gonzalez, a rider that has been up a couple of times this meet though subtle trips at the route distance.

Number wise LINE TO GAIN stacks up with the others in this field though perhaps their biggest hurdle is trip. Not only is the rail necessary to negotiate, but race shape needs also needs to work in their favor. That trip is not out of the question and necessary price compensation should be there as both #2 GABAGOOL and #3 FINDAWAY appear “more likely” and should get attention.

Both GABAGOOL and FINDAWAY bring in tactical speed and should look to track or contest pace along with #5 CAN MAN DO as shown on the Plot with those runner taking up Q1 and as tracking Squares neither GABAGOOL or FINDAWAY should have an excuse from a pace standpoint.

Rival #6 I’M YOUR CAPTAIN is the “wild card” that could create more pace. They have shown early speed in the past, given the assigned E Runstyle despite the Q3/4 Plot position. Even #4 CHAMPAGNE MIKE has shown tactical speed in the past and another that  has shown progression from the August starts with the equipment changes (removing blinkers, front wraps) and exiting that noted higher par 8/28 common race. 

#4 SADIE’S SWEET RIDE returns with the 39-day freshening for this spot and could also return with a change in TACTIC- for this event. In the two recent starts, the two statebred sprints, she was under a passive ride and forced to rate and with today’s group and what appears the only other front runner #6 HOT T’MATER on the outside, J. Felix should be more assertive and allow SADIE’S SWEET RIDE to run in the early stages, give their best chance to compete.

#5 WAHIDA OF MARDAN also could show more tactical speed today given today’s group and subtle flow upgrades. She was flattered keying off the June/July events behind winners Harper Briana and Wednesday Addams and from the open company 8/31 route with the Very Fast early/late pace. The 8/10 event was compromised with the rail and making a late CLOSE behind perfect trip winner, Tizmeonemoretime and BOS place finisher, HOT T’MATER.

#2 LAUREN’S WAR was given an upgrade with the move back to the TURF based on their visuals as well as the turf sprint back on 6/29 when brings SLOG and making a WIDE CLOSE showing more run than the running line and 7^th place outcome suggests. With that said, the pattern of SLOG not a one-off something that has carried in each start and still her own hurdle to overcome. The TURF Projection also carried to stablemate #1 COLLIE WRAYS KITTY last season and while on their preferred surface still must come with a career best effort today to compete. 

This is a competitive event and could project intent for all five and overall no knocks on the project two favorites in this race though willing to give an upgrade at the right number to #4 DISGUISED DEVIL. They find some changes coming back for this start including the 42-day freshening and rider change, first time with a journeyman, I. Hernandez taking the reins. That includes a change in post moving towards the outside and subtle change in distance back to the 6f for the first time since the dominant/B+ MSW win back on 5/15.

As far as the projected favorites, #3 LITTLE POISON looks to hold the chalk role if for nothing else where J. Loveberry ends up in this race and the public reading into that. LITTLE POISON brings in early speed and should be the BOS in here and how much pace pressure depends on the tactics of others, primarily #1 LALY given the rail and even #5 CLOEY ATTACK from the outside.

Neither DISGUISED DEVIL or #2 MISS MIKOS need to be too far off the early pace and likely need to utilize some tactical speed to track LITTLE POISON in here in order to win. MISS MIKOS has had some gate issues in her career and does appear to prefer racing outside horses. While that is not a given from the 2 hole, the speed on either side of her deciding to “go” could allow O. Mojica to shuffle off the inside and look to rack off rail behind that pair. 

Willing to take on #2 SIXWILLBERICH as the favorite in here. Not only are they returning from a PERFECT trip win on 8/28 but also finding a change in dynamic. They landed a Snowflake/low SpeedRate that day and notable change here with the Sun/40 that includes solid rivals in #3 DICK BEST (Class ABOVE+) and #4 BLURT one that projects a change in TACTIC- from 8/28 when forced to rate while also timing wheeling back two weeks following a win.

With that early Contention noted, a case can be made for #1 ICE AXE in this spot. Not only could they find the right trip/dynamic for their runstyle they bring in a positive form cycle pattern – a pattern that keyed the 7/3 win. While that race was a sprint the timing and Sun Contention noted on the day along with an inner post, something in play once again here.

Looking at the Plot, the position/shape for ICE AXE is not far off rival #5 RICKY BOBBY especially when considering the shift in projected odds. While RICKY BOBBY is more than capable, like the recent win for SIXWILLBERICH, RICKY BOBBY had the TACTIC+ in play for the 8/22 PRM win though does have the class edge noting the higher level events and consistent figures for both July starts.

The change in class also comes back into play for #6 REGIMENTAL and another worth value considerations. They raced at this level on 7/20 nothing a WIDE RUSH X_FLOW and projected to IMPROVE off that effort and outcome. Following that race, they were given the 41-day freshening into the 8/30 FP event making a MOVE (after the TROUBLE_S) into a Slow early/late pace and upgraded from that dynamic and second start of the cycle. 

#1 ZOOMBIE is going to be a heavy favorite in this race and logical in that role. They can be their own biggest hurdle at times with some gate issues though now second off a cleaner break and POCKET trip under similar conditions on 9/4 with consistent numbers is reasonable in here, though again likely no value.

#8 RACE DRIVER ships back to Hawthorne and with the rise in class following a consistent series of races and the 8/30 win. Going into his past, he has plenty of races that would make them a prime contender including turf sprints. They have yet to run back to those number since the layoff return both late 2024 and showing up in April, however with some regained confidence with the recent placings this could be their time and place – price and prerace visuals to finalize that assessment.

#4 CYCLONE ATTACK brings upside with the change in class and timing second off the layoff. They hold tactical speed, something key with today’s dynamic (Snowflake/low SpeedRate) and looking for any advantage on their main rivals. #5 NEON DEION also looking to take advantage of that pace as they hold early speed – tactical speed they were unable to show on 9/4 with the TROUBLES+ taking a legitimate stumble at the start.

The trip is key for the D. Reid pair of #2 GRAND HIDEAWAY and #3 DEVILS RED two in-form (lack of Red in the Past 3 Runlines/OptixNOTES) runners though for today’s surface distance tend to stalk-and-pounce/Q2 Squares. 

#3 CALL ME CHRISTINE caught the eye big time breaking her maiden on debut. The B+ OptixGRADE suggested she could take the step up in class and compete and did just that with the WIDE move and show finish, nothing the top two raced forward throughout and four finishing together at the wire. She continued to run on after the wire galloping out in front of her rivals and noted with that post race energy along with her physicality to handle today’s added ground and extended sprint distance.

#8 SULTRY KITTEN comes in fresh since the 7/13 PRM start a race under a similar pair recording a B- OptixGRADE making a CLOSE for place following a SLOG TROUBLE_S from the rail. The time off was not necessarily the plan noting they have been looking for the right spot with a pair of scratches last month at ELP and holds a local work on 8/2 before shipping up to CBY to train and then back at Hawthorne for the most recent move, an easy maintenance 3f breed on Sunday, 9/14.

#1 SECRET OPERATION is a legitimate longshot to win though at longer odds can be left in the mix. She paired up B- OptixGRADE at this level/race par (5/22 and 6/26) with subtle trips in both. She has been allowed a little more time between starts (only 14-days into the 8/17 race) and the extended sprint distance is one she holds experience and success with. 

#6 ONE TIMER holds a class and speed figures edge over today’s field and the horse to meet on that front. They are racing today first time for the claiming tag and notable as there could be some takers as not often a G2 winner and multiple stakes placed runner with current form shows up for a tag. Perhaps some contender on that front at the same time the connections certainly know what they are doing and running for the $50k tag today regardless of connections going forward opens up starter allowance races that this one up to this point is not eligible for.

#3 LEADING THE CHARGE lacked value coming off the layoff into the 8/28 race and should see a major change on that value front here with the distance change. They are unproven at tone turn as this will be their first time sprinting, though fit on Speed and Class and now could even make the case for form second off and on the positive three week turnaround.

#2 INDYVILLE will make their turf debut here as there has been perhaps intent for grass with the placement on 8/21 and going back to last year when they started late in the juvenile season might not have had the timing to run on the grass at the end of the Hawthorne meet and certainly no option at FP closing out 2024. This season, they have shown progression as a sophomore all around and class as well stepping up to open company. That includes the most recent something that could have been an excuse with a legitimate stumble/TROUBLES and never quit showing GRIT to the wire in a battle with winner and today’s rival #4 CONGRATS ON FIFTY. 

Looking at the Surface/Distance Plot the lighter Q1 (Snowflake) could see #5 POLTERER and #6 GENERAL ISSUE contesting the pace and even a scenario where those runners separate and hold the top two spots late.

Tactically that will requires some others to allow that scenario to develop and especially in the case of #8 HOODLUM one that should be tracking behind them though still must not allow too much separation. That same type of trip should land favorably for #7 GOLD SMOKE one that was allowed that ideal trip back on 6/21 at FP where they have had their success and less so here at Hawthorne.

#4 MILLARD’S SMILE returns to Hawthorne and could be well-placed and clever claim now second off and protected here. They were claimed for $10k back on8/9 and wheeling back for that first start for S. Manley on 8/30 was compromised with the Slow early race shape making a late MOVE unable to show their best on the day.

#9 LUCKY BOSS had the right running style for today’s race and numbers on their best day to fit as a contender. While this year, they have been less consistent running those peak efforts they showed they can pop with that race good enough to win. This could be the time as they have been allowed a little more time between starts and since the win back in July. Some intent could follow that timing and placement as they continue to race protected here and one could make the case after the 8/19 start to run for a tag – and since they remain protected and with S. Gonzalez aboard the placement can be taken positively. The 8/19 race has held form including one next out winner.