Handicapper Tips & Picks

Tough race to kick off the card as every runner in this field has some question marks attached. In terms of recency both #2 ANTHONY THE GREAT and #4 FINAL COUNTDOWN have that as their edge, though will find the surface switch back to the dirt and at the same time likely tested to step up on speed figures to run a faster race once again.

That could be in part to #1 ABUNDANCE one that has recorded the highest figures in this field and on that front the horse to beat. With that said they will be cutting back to a sprint and have the recent pattern of layoff lines.

There are some gaps in the return works for ABUNDANCE  since 6/8 return and gaps in the published tab noted for #5 PRINCE DAY, the lone 4yo in the field. In terms of race, the race they “ran” in has been productive though “ran” a relative term as they stood in the gate and even on the encouragement of the assistant starter was reluctant to even walk out. There are a couple of gate drills and getting horses out of the gate with the quickness its trainer L. Rivelli, though that still must be considered.

#3 ATTERSEE is the lone FTS in the field and while they arguably bring in the most consistent works of the group and for a barn that is capable all around; with FTS debuting on the main track does have a lower win percentage of the sample and smaller sample all things considered. 

On speed figures, the C. Rosin pair of #4 SAN ANTON and #7 CHARLEY PRIDE have recorded the fastest numbers in this field and the horse to beat on that front. Distance is a tested for CHARLEY PRIDE stretching out for the first time, however there was intent for a route of ground noting a scratch at a mile on 8/23 at PRM. As noted for SAN ANTON just a week ago the route distance is physically not their ideal, though capable with the right trip and in with the right group though does have that hurdle to clear.

#8 RAGNOW was running figures earlier this year (and in December at FG) that stack up with that pair and doing so at the two turn distance. He lost some form following the series in May and though despite the recent finishing positions seems to be cycling back forward and could be taken as a positive sign with O. Mojica jumping back aboard (the two pairing a show finish on 7/24) for today’s race with the return to the turf as well.

#2 KISS MY CHARMS brings upside from the two starts to date and intent for this level with a return to the turf noting a scratch under similar conditions when the races were moved to the main track on 8/28. They debuted over a good rated turf course, a tough task asked for the two turns as well and especially when factoring a WIDE trip. They went looking for grass right back for the second start and stayed in with the WEATHER impacted very poor track conditions on 7/24 and paired with another WIDE trip and arguably could make the case they have yet to show their best. And with just a slight step forward would be on the level of rivals #3 CASH APP MIKE and #6 BLACK RUSSIAN (even a best from #5 DYNO WAR) and KISS MY CHARMS could be overlooked of that set. 

Both #3 WINGING WAYS and #4 RACARINO had legitimate, albeit different levels of an EX – EXCUSE coming out of the common race on 8/31. WINGING WAYS was restless in the GATE and unprepared at the start as result forced to RUSH WIDE X_FLOW and naturally tiring. They bring in early speed and while they must deal with #2 PHILIPSBURG in that role, a rebound can be projected.

RACARINO with the place finish was compromised with TROUBLE+ forced to navigate around a loose horse and fallen rider while giving the winner, Strange Arrange first run. With A. Hernandez represented with PHILIPSBURG and the potential for a duel that scenario assists a tracking trip for RACARINO. 

The race dynamic is unique with the Snowflake Contention paired with the higher 72 SpeedRate and visually shown on the Plot with six of the seven runners positioned above today’s ParLine. That allows #3 I O FEDRO a the lone Q4 Square to track their other six rivals and should have pace to close into. They return under conditions from 9/4 recorded a solid B OptixGRADE (winning effort for the level) with the place finish.

Their stablemate #5 COOL LESTER SMOOTH will be tested against winner though appears based on physicality and intent on their preferred surface/distance despite this being the first time they will have the chance to run on the turf around two turns. Number wise they will be required to step up, though lightly raced and unproven in this category with others cannot be discounted.

#4 KINGSBURRY ATTACK also returning from that 9/4 common race and one that was giving up recency on the day from the layoff has the race in them coming back around in here. They should hold conditioning with that start under their belt and especially when paired with a WIDE trip on the day. 

#1 LICENSE TO STEAL also has a license to rebound in this spot. They follow an every other pattern and returning under similar conditions/par with the competitive race and figure going back to 8/17. They hold some excuse not just with the higher par 12-days ago at FP as they were restless in the GATE stumbled/TROUBLES+ out and made a RUSH before losing ground in hand late. While they have tactical speed, they are not a “need the lead” type and there are others “faster” to the first call especially when considering stretch out sprinters for O. Mojica to utilize a tracking trip if necessary.

#6 T LAW is a bit of a wild card on that pace front. They are another with runstyle versatility even at the route distance while looking at the Plot, they hold enough tactical speed to be on the lead should A. Bendezu take that approach once again. They tried that and to their credit and after a duel with #5 GUN IT AND RUN IT stayed on as the BOS, however a Very Slow early and Slow late race shape though perhaps they timing a factor on the day as they return with the 43-day freshening here.

#4 BYWORD appears to be at their best when they are allowed to make the lead and not get into a tug-of-war between horse and rider. That is likely the plan here stretching back out and first off the claim, an ambitious spot with the step up in claiming tag though in terms of race par there is minimal change from the prior starts this year.

#3 DASH TO THE CASH brings in conditioning and form third off though is is that prime sprinter “wild card” stretching out in distance. This will be just their second start attempting a route of ground and the first a long time back, a third career start in 2021. In that race they showed early speed and when considering class level and continued class level in most of their starts to date, they should be place to compete under claiming conditions keying off the B- returning from the layoff on 7/27.

#2 GAME SANTA will be required to step up in class and take on winners for the first time. They  also must take another step forward to compete though in each race to date has shown progression on that front while also showing run in each of the three starts all with subtle trips given the rail drawn in all three. 

#2 HAWKS CREEK is deserving of a look right back and under similar conditions noting the EX- EXCUSE two weeks ago. They SPACED dynamic coming into play with Code Name separating early and dominant on the front end taking the field gate-to-wire. HAWKS CREEK breaking a step SLOG made a slight RUSH had in running TROUBLE carried out X_WIDE on the first turn and overall unable to compete as their best self all things considered.

#5 DEL RAYO can present a threat even with other front running types such as #8 WICKED SURPRISE and #10 WHATDOYOUTHINKMARK in the field. DEL RAYO holds back numbers to fit, a slightly lower race par today with the X_FLOW upgrade as the 7/8 IND race was starting to slow late with the top seven within lengths of each other at the wire.

#7 CANYON STREAK should move up with the class DROP today as they have struggled to put forth a B “winning” effort at the allowance level. This move to claiming company was the play back on 8/17 however the surface switch and trip from the rail (WARM RANK) was also not the ideal plan. They should rebound there and hold fitness from the WIDE trip and subtle TROUBLE- two weeks ago.

Number wise they are consistent and something not always in play for #6 DAPPER DUDE though the two turf figures from the August races this season (and even the May event) all stack up on par and despite coming off the show/BLANKET finish outcome earlier this month at FP they could be overlooked in here and left in the mix at longer odds.#9 PROFESSOR HIGGINS also with the overall consistency to respect will be given a step up on class following their win earlier this month. 

#1 LUCY’S LOOKIN LEFT fits this condition perfectly and positive form cycle pattern. She makes her third start of the cycle and two sprints to a route pattern that has been used successfully in the past, including the two route starts from the April place to the May win. She fits today’s race shape (Plot) with tactical speed (Q2/3) and finishing ability – Large Square.

#4 DESSERT FIRST also with a similar Plot position/shape, however, gives up recency returning from the 56-day break and number wise lacks an edge, factors that must be considered with value compensation.

#3 ANNIE’S HOPE holds tactical speed and with a top effort a threat to take this field gate-to-wire. She stretches out while making a Hawthorne return in this second start off the layoff. The second off pattern also follows stablemate #5 SILKY WARRIOR one that fits on her best today though despite the in the money finishes prior to the break she returned from last week, looked to be losing some form, form they look to regain here.

#6 NO NANNETTE NO also will be looking to regain her top form though does find a change in class and back to the restricted $5k claiming level they were competitive under earlier this season. The change in class is subtle as is the timing and rider change, factors that could see her rebound while overlooked by the public. 

The change in class appears the right move for #9 TOWERING STORM looking to return to winning ways. As an IL-bred they will run for the higher $30k tag something that could see them remain with the connections while opening up starter opportunities going forward. TOWERING STORM paired up inside in their first two starts and stepped up in class in short order. They have held their own with the company lines, especially in the turf on this circuit though often struggled with class and timing of races. That changes here with the recent conditioning and slight flow upgrade from the Bucks Boy stakes and similar out of a strong August allowance at ELP.

Stablemate #7 EVEN THE WIND could be shorter of the two today given their recent finishing positions and what could be more appealing to the public. While there is nothing to knock from those races here and returning under similar conditions recording a B OptixGRADE in the three horse BLANKET finish at the wire on 8/7.  

In terms of the early pace, the contention and speed rate could be higher than what is shown on the Plot, given some surface changes and buried form though taking it for what it is, #3 ALL CHOKED UP drawn inside of their other pacesetting (Q1/3) rivals along with the change in class and 80-day freshening should be on the gas from the jump and utilize their early speed as a front end threat. 

#9 STAGFLATION finds some positive changes while returning from a two month break and back at Hawthorne. Physically she is a longer bodied type, something that did not pair well with the shorter 5.5f distance along with the recent inside posts. She moves outside today with some tactical speed and 6f while her runstyle (Plot ABOVE) fits today’s race shape from a pace standpoint.

#1 WRITTEN CONSENT finds a change in Plot position from their recent starts returning today as a Q1 Square and upgraded (ABOVE+) on that front and with current form. She has held her won all year and especially this meet, consistent speed figures and lack of “red” in the OptixNOTES/GRADES. Looking at the Plot, the consistent shape could give WRITTEN CONSENT the edge over #8 TWO TIMER with a similar Surface/Distance position through a shift on Standard (current form) while taking a big rise in class/par following a PERFECT trip win on 8/17.

While #2 TIME BREAK does not hold a pace advantage she has a buried edge on Class (ABOVE+) to give a look to on that front. Intent could also follow as she makes her second start off the claim and returning to Hawthorne and a condition where she has been competitive in the past. The recent finishing position could have her overlooked in contrast to rivals #5 HIDDEN SPIN and #6 LOST SUNSET given their recent outcomes and that trio showing similar position and Circle Q1 on the Plot.

The opposite end of the Plot with Q4 Squares (Closers) #3 WILDWOOD QUEEN and #7 HEAVENLY HASH both look to come running on late and while require a lot of racing luck with that runstyle (price compensation) they can be included at the least for underneath and with High Five finale wagering available.