Handicapper Tips & Picks

#1 JOURNEY fits as a contender on class and speed figures. They could in addition hold a pace advantage. While coming out of the recent route races it is tough to translate that early speed to sprinting; however the race shapes in those events compared with the one projected here could see them flash early speed from the inside. #6 THREE AFLEET should be looking for the lead while coming out of the dirt sprints and looking to rebound following the SLOG three weeks ago a first start back in 42-days suggesting a reset to their form cycle.

#3 PONCHO ATTACK holds the established turf sprint form that is tough to overlook with many unproven over the course and distance in this field. PONCHO ATTACK arguably recorded their most competitive race this season when at this statebred level back on 6/12, with the higher recorded speed figure for them in 2025. That June race was second off and on a one week turnaround only to return with a little more time between starts picking up the 8/2 next out N2 claiming win.

#5 EL MUCHO brings in sprint and current form and limited turf form to consider. They were scheduled to race over this course and distance when breaking their maiden in 2023 in an off the turf race. Their first turf race was around two turns at the FG and set a Very Fast early pace before fading and then had the 2024 layoff lines that followed. Their belated return to the turf was back on 5/25 a sneaky good show finish given the excessive ground loss (X_WIDE) when making their MOVE.

#2 GUNNY SACK brings in solid form and figures with experience over this course as they take a slight rise in class though deserving of the test and today’s par is similar to the $20k N2 level they won last month. Form and figures also fit with #7 VERRAZANOINTHESKY however trip perhaps their biggest hurdle as they look to come running on late. Number wise #4 HOLDEN MICHAEL sits below the others in this field and today’s par though physically does present on the turf side where surface does not project to be their biggest hurdle today. 

A rematch looks to unfold for #1 AUTISM COMPASSION and #3 IZZY’S MONSTER as the two battled 1-2 at this level back on 7/13. AUTISM COMPASSION was dominant/B+ with the win on the day though taking nothing away from IZZY’S MONSTER (B) as she was giving up recency on the day while returning form TROUBLE trips in May and even lacking recovery from her dominant win back on 4/20 from the layoff.

The edge in recency and the common race victory sides with AUTISM COMPASSION here while IZZY’S MONSTER projects higher of the two and with a return to peak form can turn the tables. In addition to AUTISM COMPASSION the barn is represented by #4 MEMPHIS CASH QUEEN one that is not without a chance to upset. She must return to her best races in order to compete with the others though brings in early speed and progressive form in this current third start of the cycle. 

#7 LITTLE DIXIE is the most intriguing in this field and should hold value with the “unknown” as she makes the move to the turf. While she must transfer her form to the grass to compete, she has held her form and figures from other main tracks as well as number on the synthetic at Turfway. While the making the comparison synthetic to turf is a flawed 1:1 the ability to show versatility is the angle to lean on. As far as form and figures she stack up as a contender and for this level a fit. She finds a rider change with journeyman, I. Hernandez taking over following the 7/27 TACTIC- trip with LITTLE DIXIE showing inside/SAVED run and solid GALLOP+.

LITTLE DIXIE also brings in runstyle versatility and the ability to finish (Square) something that should be key in today’s race shape. The early pace projects to be honest with the 43 SpeedRate which includes the two CBY shippers #1 QURBAAN D ORO and #2 REGAL MAJESTY as E/EP types and should be kept honest with local runner, #6 MADELYN ATTACK - one that has front running speed she was unable to show with the TROUBLE_S at this level on 9/7.

#3 OH MACARENA just sneaks into this condition despite a three-time winner and brings current form and looking at the Plot and recent races presents a solid threat once again. She picked up the win in the 9/7 common race, a race with #5 SPICY ITALIAN one that did not have her ideal TACTIC- trip on the day and put in a sneaky CLOSE picking up a rider change capable of improvement here.

#4 CHURCH PEW also shipping in from CBY and their runstyle (Q4 Square) can be upgraded in today’s race shape. In addition, she holds Hawthorne form going back to last season breaking her maiden dominantly (B+) at the $20 MCL level and paired up wins coming right back in their next start $17.5k N2 before closing out the Hawthorne turf season in allowance company. 

Looking at the Plot, tough to deny #2 CENTRAL PARK as the most likely winner and the horse to catch and run down on the front end in what should be no excuse on pace sitting clear as a Q1 Square. With that said, there still is a “Fire” Contention with #5 FEVER NATION above the ParLine and horses likely #3 LARRY THE POET and #6 RUSSIAN TO WIN can bring in tactical speed if necessary. CENTRAL PARK will also be tested in their form cycle, something that looked to peak with the progression of CBY figures that require to hold here without regression, and at a projected short number.

#1 LUCKY SHOT could get their “shot” here today. They have held their form and figures this season and upgraded returning from the higher level 8/21 $40kOC conditions and STRETCH in distance from that shorter 5.5f sprint distance, not their ideal. LUCKY SHOT recorded a B OptixGRADE at this level on 6/29 under a higher race par than today’s event and not a one-off effort for them. Looking at the Plot, they are not without a chance to win and arguably the biggest threat in this group to upset CENTRAL PARK. 

The projected odds could be on the shorter side for #2 SASSY WALKER though overlaid would upgrade especially with the belated return to the turf. She stepped up in her MSW days on the turf while winless, improved on numbers projected TURF in the races that followed and has not been on the grass since those three sophomore starts in KY.

#8 GOLDEN NOTE also is interesting with the return to turf. She started out on the turf and the three grass races to date were all contested at the MSW level and two turn route distance. Those races on a different circuit also carried a higher par and purse, a big contrast especially when compared to today’s race. Their current form and figures fit in line with this level and making a return to Hawthorne. The rider change to A. Centeno could also signal intent – the jockey/trainer combination this season 29% win and 64% ITM with a solid 14  race sample.  

#10 REALTA also holds some buried turf sprint form from back in the NY statebred conditions. Those figures and overall level of consistently line up with where she is at currently to suggest she can transfer form into this spot. As far as class, this is closer to a lateral move if not a touch lighter with progressive third off  at the N3 level. 

#5 KING OF THE PALACE likely needed (PREP)  the return race coming off the layoff on 9/7 though this type of class drop creates a new question mark. The 9/7 race was an extreme race shape as Code Name SPACED out the field on the front end to score gate-to-wire and flattered as Hawks Creek returned last Sunday to win from that common race. KING OF THE PALACE has more than one race that makes them a prime contender and while the drop is not the most positive move they still can be given consideration. This is also the only mount on the card for jockey D. Sanchez and just a third mount on the year, selective to say the least.

#4 HATCHET CREEK is still looking for their first win on the year and fits that condition on that front. Their form and figures have held consistent on the year and while the change in class could be taken as more of a lateral move some intent should be in play landing in this spot scratching from a similar condition on 9/14 with J. Taveres back aboard.

#1 SOMNUS also finds a change in class (and rider) returning to this circuit. They show up on a quick turnaround and must turn things around with the quickness. They showed form with a similar pattern starting off the year on 3/30 with racing and with the class drop and timing, 10-days between starts with the 5/20 win. The gate issues since have been their hurdle since the win/place outcomes and with the rail and 5.5f distance there is little room for error at the start. 

#2 RESORT FEE finds a significant change in class with today’s much lower race par than the two starts to date at WO. Their debut earned a figure on par while compromised with the TROUBLE_S and subtle in running TROUBLE- with a Very Fast early and late pace in that 8/2 turf start. They showed more gate speed in the second start on 8/21 while overall a positive to suggest they stepped forward in a second start, it was to their detriment chasing a Fast pace before losing ground, the winner, Spirited from off the pace and the form from that event has held with one next out unofficial winner, Mew N Me DQ from their 9/6 MSW win.

#5 BRAVE SAMANTHA projected to move up on the TURF from their first six starts on the dirt however also at the time (and since) projected to move up with the class DROP something they find here on this circuit. That placement appears key, where she finds a lower par/purse and at the same time can still run protected looking for the right conditions for that first win.

#1 KEEN GAL is the lone FTS in this field and while giving up the experience on the others she will land rider L. Colon, a rider that has been riding lights out as of late, especially on the turf saving ground and with the rail they should have that path here.

L. Colon was aboard #7 I’M HUNGOVER in the first two starts with O. Mojica taking over on 8/31 and remains up today. They will step back up to MSW company following the TROUBLE and late CLOSE finishing together at the wire with first run winner, Trinitythreeinone back on 8/31. Mojica sticks with I’M HUNGOVER shifting S. Gonzalez to #6 UNKEPT PROMISES one that has held her form and figures this season. The TROUBLES+ with chain reaction at the break and then making a WIDE RUSH over the turf on 8/7 could have some “excuse” attached and quickly rebounded with the place finish through TROUBLE on 8/28. 

#6 ETERNALLY GRATEFUL has been on a tear this year and fits right back in this spot looking to pair wins for the connections. A. Bendezu fits this horse well in four starts two wins two place and their runstyle paired with the right handling can work a tracking trip – looking at the Plot, ETERNALLY GRATEFUL tracking behind the projected pacesetting #4 LITTLE STEVEN and #9 REDFIELD looking for first run.

That first run could be the key with the four Q2/4 tracking Squares all capable in their own right: #3 C F V BULLET has been knocking on the door and right there at this level should be right back in the mix and with racing luck getting their picture taken. F. Villa returns with the pair of #5 SOUL COAXING and #7 EYE DEE KAY with timing second off for EYE DEE KAY following their every other pattern to upgrade and overall in this spot – a Plot position and shape similar to ETERNALLY GRATEFUL.

#2 SYNTACTIC is certainly capable though requires a top effort one they can often be not ask consistent bringing. They had a lot of public support the day of their win on 8/16 bet down from a 12-1 ML and the right ride after breaking a step SLOG SAVED ground with first run. They need to repeat that here and could be shorter number as projected and with that race sitting towards the top of the pp’s and lack value.

#8 LUCKY BOSS requires plenty of price compensation as they can be tough to back off the Plot and another that requires a return to a peak effort - though has those races good enough in them. Some intent could be in play wheeling right back and back under similar conditions to the race (WIDE NO_PUSH) one week ago when suggesting some intent remaining protected on the day. 

1-JOURNEY was overmatched in a stakes race in his last start but he won his previous three turf races. With his good tactical speed, he should be laying right off the early pace, ready to take over when they turn for home. 6-THREE AFLEET never ran on turf but he looks like the best speed in a race filled with closers. If he takes to the lawn, he might not get caught. 2-GUNNY SACK rides a two-race win streak. This will be his toughest task yet but he could be up to the challenge.

This isn’t a match race but it almost looks like one on paper. 1-AUTISM COMPASSION has been good much of her career but she has been on fire since getting claimed by this barn. She has had six local races, winning four of her last five while finishing in the money in the other two. She beat Izzy’s Monster, her most logical competition, the last time they met. Good speed will have her close from the start and she could easily be on the lead by the time they turn for home. 3-IZZY'S MONSTER, like top choice, has loved this track in the past. But she doesn’t seem quite as sharp as she had been in the past and she’s coming off a 10-weel layoff. She was favored the last time she raced but couldn’t hold off the late run by top choice. Maybe today. 2-PASTA SALAD RHONDA could be the best of the rest. She’s been in good form against easier but she raced competitively against the top pair in the past. 

 2-REGAL MAJESTY improved dramatically after moving to the weeds. She wired the fields in two of her three turf races and ran in second all the way around in the other. Even though there are others in this race possessing early speed, her ability to last under pressure makes her the choice. 3-OH MACARENA could find the perfect pace scenario. She is capable of displaying good early speed but it’s her ability to close well that makes her so dangerous in this spot. 4-CHURCH PEW figures prominently. She finished second in three of her last four races at Canterbury but he only two victories were scored on this course in the summer of 2024. She’s another likely to be coming on late.

There are quite a few runners in here that possess early speed but think that 2-CENTRAL PARK could be the quickest. He dominated in last when dropped to this claiming price after finishing second in his first two races of the year. Meets somewhat tougher in his local debut but could achieve the same result that he had in last. 1-LUCKY SHOT is probably more versatile than top choice. He owns decent speed but is equally adept when coming from off the pace. He was overmatched in last and ran into a runner at the top of his game but the drop back to this easier level makes him a top contender. 6-RUSSIAN TO WIN looked extra sharp beating rivals at a lower level in last. Although he’s taking on tougher here, he could be the best closer in this speed-filled field.  

Interesting race. It will take place on grass but many in here have no turf experience and even most of those that have raced on the surface have never been successful. The lone exception might be 2-SASSY WALKER. She ran two very good races against maiden specials at Ellis back in June of 2023 but then ran up the track when facing maiden specials at Churchill off a layoff that September. For some reason, she never raced on turf again. She’s been in very good form at Fairmont, and Turfway, so far this year but if she can emulate her Ellis turf races in this spot, she’s going to dominate this field. 5-ANNA AFTER MIDNITE is the lone turf winner in the race; a feat she accomplished here last summer. She is quick from the gate but she’s been running out of gas in recent races and she’ll be taking on tougher today. 10-REALTA isn’t in great form but she looks like the best closer in this speed-filled race. Might be able to grab the show dough as she passes tiring speedsters.

2-IDEA MAN could be dropping into the winning spot. He’s been racing downstate and has had some recent success versus better. He finished second in his lone local race this year, his first start of 2025, but has also done well here in the past. He probably won’t be going for the early lead but he’ll certainly be close in the early going. 5-KING OF THE PALACE drops many levels. He has raced primarily on turf but he did beat allowance company on dirt here a year ago. He’s been in poor form but the drop in class could be the great equalizer. 7-BREAKING NEWS meets a bit easier. He owns good speed but is comfortable coming from off the pace. 

Like the versatility of 9-MIRACLE MINDED. She has a good mix of speed but also the ability to rate. Makes her sixth start on turf while making her local debut. It could be graduation day. 7-I’M HUNGOVER moves back into maiden specials but she just missed in last, against maiden claimers, and most of the runners from this barn improve with experience. There should be more than enough early pace in this race to set up for her big late move. Could mow them down in the stretch. 5-BRAVE SAMANTHA is hard to gauge. She is shipping from a tougher circuit but she has never been exactly competitive, on turf or dirt. Guess I wouldn’t be surprised if she won but wouldn’t be at all surprised if she didn’t. 

Tough race with a good mixture of speed and closers. Could make a strong case for virtually every member of the field. But I think I’ll go with 6-ETERNALLY GRATEFUL With the exception of his race two starts back, when he had a ton of early trouble, he’s been in good form for over a year. He’s had two local races, winning one and barely losing the other. He’s not as quick as some in here and doesn’t close as well as some others but he is in the hunt in almost every race. 5-SOUL COAXING tries to make it two in a row. He just beat many of these rivals after finishing second to the red-hot Calibrate in his previous race. 9-REDFIELD could be the best of the speed. He wasn’t able to hold off the late move of top choice in last but he was easily the best of the rest. Could turn the tables if he can grab an easy lead today.