Handicapper Tips & Picks

Both #3 MARK MY MEMORY and #6 RUMBLING fit as prime contenders in this spot. The two have shown their most competitive races at this level recording B- OptixGRADES with figures on par for the level and standing out a the higher in the field. The two share a similar runstyle and bring in tactical speed something key overall and to compete.

#4 BLAKELY’S BOY does not hold any strong edge though in terms of class found a change in this circuit last month. While that move projected to move them up they were compromised racing X_FLOW unable to show their best on the day. The lack of early speed could be problematic in terms of trip though other project improvement in this spot and second on this circuit even with the return to a sprint. 

#5 NIGHT BLUE will technically take a rise in class for this second start in against winners, though finds a lower par from the event three weeks ago. The change here is a further positive with the move to TURF and based on the others races to date those efforts, while not a strong edge fit in here.

#3 SPINNING GLORY looks to appreciate the break and the return to the sprint distance. They did not have the opportunity to make it to the gates until June firing fresh with the MSW win. Off that race they wheeled back in allowance company while racing WARM and perhaps not fully recovered where similar could be started along with the added ground in the July mile race recording a B- OptixGRADE all things considered.

#2 WILDWOOD ADIOS has shown tactical speed in their recent start, though those races around two turns. Back sprinting, they should take up a stalk and point trip, one she honestly appears to prefer, and can be upgraded while also holding value second off. The move back to the turf for #1 RACING THE LIGHT appears to be one also in search of a shorter distance. The rail/inside draw once again should assist in dictating that trip and use that natural speed.

#4 HARPER BRIANA has shown a solid late kick and competitive races this season. With that said she might have put herself “over the top” with the series and peaking on 9/4 where a return to a best is required with this group to win. Number wise she holds “faster” races than stablemate #6 TIZMEONEMORETIME one that has a level of consistency overall. 

Tough to argue #1 OEUVRE as the horse to beat in this race. She holds as the class of the field and consistent speed figures all around though in this case strong on the Hawthorne main track. She follows an “every other” pattern second off into this race where she has had further and repeated success.

While OEUVRE remains as the horse to beat she still must come running as this is a race horse bunch. #5 COMMISSION GULCH should be sitting on a peak effort – third off with progressive grades in this form cycle. She was effective with a similar pattern picking up the win back on 6/26 and not a one off following that cycle throughout her career. She has been knocking on the door at this stakes level in the two starts last season with the B-/show finish in the Third Chance and closing out 2024 in this very stakes race with a WIDE MOVE B-/place finish.

#2 BEEHIVE holds competitive numbers from last season and early speed to try and get the jump on those main rivals. Number wise she has sleeve races from last season that fit on the contender end and while she has not been able to run back to those numbers this year in the limited starts, she has them in here and for an always dangerous top conditioner, M. Boyce. 

Looking through the field on current form and paired with the Plot showing a Fire Contention and higher 63 SpeedRate the early pace should be honest and assist a tracking trip. Both #4 NEW YEAR SURPRISE and #5 HANDSOFFTHEGOODS fall into that role.

NEW YEAR SURPRISE makes their second start off the claim returning to the main track and while the recent figures sit on the lower end of par that can be countered with consistent B- OptixGRADES. HANDSOFFTHEGOODS holds a pair of wins under similar conditions level, surface and distance from last summer. This year, they turned in a competitive figure and B- OptixGRADE with a similar par back on 7/31. They needed a little time before returning on 9/14 might have needed the conditioning and as a positive was entered last week, likely looking for the main track and without hesitation here as good a time as any to return to a peak effort and winning ways.

In terms of early speed and current form #1 LITTLE STEVEN has an edge and while they project to deal with pace pressure they are not without a chance on the front end. The recent outcome and their early speed is clear and obvious with the public and should be reflected in odds. #7 VINO COURAGIO needs pace to target and make their late run (Q4 Square) something they did not have chasing inside SAVED TRAFFIC behind a Very Slow early and late pace on 9/14. To their credit and after a SLOG TROUBLE_S (lunged out took contact) they made a sneaky CLOSE credited with a B- OptixGRADE. 

RACE 5: A solid edition of the Carey Memorial with a full field.

Trainer M. Maker sends in a pair of runners with a strong edge on class: #6 PAROS projects to be higher of the two though that holds form and coming out of the recent graded stakes race holding their form and figures – something that might not be obvious on paper when looking at running line and outcome. Those G3 stakes efforts all chasing Fast/Very Fast early pace deserving of an upgrade. This marks their second start off the layoff exiting the $500k Tapit stakes last month at KYD racing SAVED against the course profile to move up on that front along with the conditioning and local rider, J. Loveberry.

#10 EMMANUEL is still a familiar name going back to his sophomore season with Derby Dreams and has since turned into a solid turf miler. The class was a hurdle they were unable to overcome for the majority of the 2024 season (following the G3 Canadian Turf win) ultimately to a sale and has regrouped for the current connections. The placement has been key landing in the right stakes spots, such as the strong stakes win at PEN on 8/15 and notable as they wheeled right back stuck with a outside post and WIDE trip in a $500k Handicap on KY on 8/31. That race should allow them to hold fitness here in a third start of the cycle.

C. Block also with a pair of runners including #8 OUT OF DEDUCTIONS out for redemption and given the selection to upset. They raced in this event last year with significant TROUBLE+ impacting their outcome on the day. In terms of the form since they have held numbers and competitive races to compete here while looking for the first win on the year. Perhaps the closest to victory was the N3 allowance back in March at the FG with M. Pedroza aboard and getting the call today suggests intent. The timing and placement also suggests further intent, second off, back at the flat mile,, a similar distance trainer pattern while holding fitness from that 9/26 KYD allowance with the X_WIDE trip.

#5 ANOTHER MYSTERY won this race last year overlooked at 14-1. They were able to save ground and the right handling under regular rider O. Mojica on the better part of the course. The two are not without a change to repeat and at the least run their race coming in with current form, that well-established pairing though does require a top effort and that ideal trip to repeat for the win. 

#7 FREEDOM LASS projects to get overlooked in this full field and taking on open company once again. She brings in current form and is progressive in this current form cycle with a peak effort projected. She was given the PREP with the WIDE trip sprinting returning from the layoff in July and improved with the figure and outcome on 8/7 making an early MOVE. Freshened for the 9/14 race they were asked to show more early speed, taken ever so slightly out of their preferred runstyle something that should only improve conditioning here. Looking at the Plot, FREEDOM LASS should land a favorable tracking trip chasing an honest pace in part to Q1 stablemate, #6 CAT ATTACK.

The early pace should be honest something to assist projected favorite #9 WODETON on trip. With that said, they are others in a similar Plot position and shape to give a look to at longer odds. That includes the local pair of #1 VITALE and #10 WICKED SURPRISE one that could be overlooked off the recent outcome and wheeling back in a week with sneaky upside in this third start of the cycle.

Number wise #5 WELLSWORT and #11 COMMISSION OSCAR come in on the lighter end with their recent starts including the recent wins – not an impossible pair to make the case for, though require price compensation. Similar price compensation is required for #8 SILVER QUARTERS with their runstyle from off the pace (Q4 Square) and recent pattern of GATE/SLOG to overcome on trip. 

A competitive MSW event as part of the late sequence and start of the late P3. There is a strong mix of lightly raced horses with upside and capable barns showing up with FTS to use both categories in this case.

In terms of the FTS that includes ML favorite, #3 SPECIAL SAUCE for L. Rivelli and J. Loveberry familiar names and plenty of success in this category. They bring in some quick moves customary for the barn though does show a gap in the published work tab of three weeks between late August and the recent 9/21 gate move to consider with value.

M. Boyce has the homebred pair bookending the field with #1 ESPADA and #10 CULTURE SHOCK. The two fillies show a complete work tab with near identical times and dates into this race and should be race ready both in capable hands with the riders assigned for today’s race.

In terms of the group with experience: #7 MOTOWN SOUND showed run in their 9/7 debut following a TROUBLES+ was in hand (TACTIC- NO_PUSH) making a MOVE and not asked for their best in what appeared to serve as a useful PREP. #8 DREAM EAGLE also wheeling back from that 9/7 common race also with PREP visuals racing GREEN making a MOVE after the SLOG one to benefit from the experience and both look to have come out of the race well with a published work since. 

#6 CHEVAL B brings in buried form and intent second off while returning to the turf and the N2 claiming level. Those factors move her up on speed figures and class along with a positive runstyle for today’s race shape. Further intent looks to follow along with the second off conditioning and class change reuniting with O. Hernandez, the rider aboard for the place finish and MSW win back in April.

#1 POLSKA SUE holds a tactical advantage with early speed and an inside draw. They were unable to show establish the forward runstyle on 9/11 with the TROUBLE_S and rider TACTIC_ held up inside COVER up behind horses making a late MOVE behind front running winner, Regal Majesty.  #3 TRINITYTHREEINONE also recorded a B- OptixGRADE making her late CLOSE X_FLOW and perhaps some intent adding blinkers today.

The change in class can upgrade #4 DRAMA SPEAKER of the CBY shipping group into this race. A top effort is required though perhaps the timing wheeling back signals intent along with a return to “firm” and in good hands with O. Mojica aboard. 

The big race card closes out with a competitive group and full field of $20k open claiming fillies and mares sprinting 5.5f on the turf. The race shape must be noted and key with the shorter distance and could be considered a potential “extreme” dynamic with the Snowflake Contention (light Q1) paired with the higher 70 SpeedRate – more than half of the field above the ParLine.

In terms of the first flight #5 FROSTED ÉCLAIR and #9 MORE THAN A DIVA given their current form and post position in prime in running position to track and press both #2 MARY’S BOON and #6 RAMBERT both giving up some recency off slight layoffs.

#3 WANDA STRONG also returns from the layoff and could be overlooked following the recent running lines and finishing positions. A deeper dive into the races this season shows upside taking into account the PREP on 5/8 followed up with a legitimate EX – EXCUSE given the in running TROUBLE+ when making their move. While most of her turf starts have been contested around two turns, the BTL sprint last June gives her a look and especially when paired with price compensation.

By contrast #8 MISS RIVER RAT finds the change in distance shortening back up and while certainly capable and some buried turf sprint trips, price compensation is less likely. Looking at the Standard Plot, MISS RIVER RAT shares a similar Q4 Square position to #4 EMPIRICAL VIEW coming back with the key change in class and distance following the 8/14 start racing X_BIAS.