Handicapper Tips & Picks

A contentious race to start the card as any one of the six has races that can win and overall bring in similar form. Looking at a couple of runners to upgrade at prices and try to sneak by with creativity to start the card:

#3 ICE SHARD took the drop in class on 9/11 and given a look with the change on the day. Perhaps the timing had then not at their peak on the two week turnaround and given three weeks here along with a rider change along with the back races to fit as a contender.

#6 LINE TO GAIN finds some changes with distance being obvious though less obvious is post moving to the outside. That could be the key for this runner as they have held their form this season perhaps the time to put it together. The front wraps were removed on 8/28 and appeared a sign of positivity then added back on 9/18 and something to watch for here. 

#4 DEAL’EM AND WEEP takes a lateral move into this open claiming level following the races this season including the win last month. She also finds a similar type dynamic with the Sun Contention and lower SpeedRate to the three recent starts to suggest she can compete on trip.

The early pace should allow #2 DESERT GLOW their run up front and from the inside. Even the return to the slightly shorter 7.5f distance is a positive for their compact frame. The biggest test will be holding form and requiring a 9/13 repeat effort. #3 APRIL’S GEM and #6 LOTTA ROSES hold tactical speed and coming in off different style of “trips” to upgrade from the 9/14 common race.

That common race also showing with #1 GET N TIPSY one that should be overlooked on the board and while she must return to their top efforts and improve off the 2025 starts to win, that projection is not out of the question. She was showing progressive form with the improving Grades and figures into the 9/14 start, a race that could hold some excuse given a WIDE trip and NO_PUSH something that could change here with the rail draw and picking up A. Centeno, a rider with success for this barn to show intent. 

The race shape creates a different dynamic to the puzzle with the Snowflake Contention along with the lower 12 SpeedRate and at the same time showing five of the eight runners sharing an EP runstyle. Perhaps the pace does end up with a slightly higher SpeedRate in running with the post position and those EP runners drawn inside and outside of the field. One of those being #6 GOOD SCOUT perhaps overlooked off their recent 6^th place outcome and following an “every other” pattern there are reasons to suggest they can cycle back to a top. Today’s par is a slight change, slightly lower than the recent FP starter allowances to consider as a value play.

Trip should flatter #4 RACARINO on upgraded from the EX – EXCUSE on 8/31 and wheeling back in just over a week from the 9/21, a race with a slightly higher par than what they find here. The change in par and class is notable to #8 MON AMI FUZZIE returning to Hawthorne and under the conditions where they picked up a win back on 7/27. The outside post is ideal for this individual a change from the recent starts which had them climbing over the track while taking dirt and in both races showed late interest despite the running line and finishing position. 

Taking a stab with #2 SHAN’S QUEST as this would be the time they pop with a career best and the right price as the races to date appear “below” on the win end. While tough to argue that is not the case, this lightly raced 4yo presents plenty of upside and reason to suggest they have more to show. Going back to the debut here on 6/12 SHAN’S QUEST took notable early wagering support and notable for the tougher two turn first out conditions on the grass. While they did come up short (LONE, NO_FINISH) the effort was an X_FLOW upgrade with the top two from off the pace including the open length winner, Buttons And Lace one that has since paired up allowance wins in quality fashion. SHAN’S QUEST flattered the race strength coming back to break their maiden on 7/4 at PRM overcoming a TROUBLES+ to RUSH up and hold clear as the BOS winner. The two starts following also followed with gate issues (TROUBLE_S/S+) though showing run in spots despite the outcome considering the level of competition in KY for those N1 allowance events and the connections showing confidence to run for the $102-190k purses.

#1 SINE QUA NON fits as a contender right back under similar conditions. Despite the layoff returning on 9/11 in a first start on this circuit the had a strong look given a class edge and buried form from the races out in California with plenty of OptixNOTES upgrades. Their form and class carried last month posting the B OptixGRADE making a SAVED CLOSE to finish together with pacesetting winner, Sawyer Fox.

#5 MARTINI MAN will get another chance at a start this season and looking for a rebate from the layoff return back on 6/26 under similar conditions here. They might not have been quite as ready as expected from the 280-days away both mentally and physically as they were WARM forced to RUSH into the lead and RANK before losing ground (NO_KEEP) and in hand (NO_PUSH) late. They took some time before returning to the work tab, first published move back on 8/20, and for this MN-bred the timing and the weather might have not allowed for CBY start and encouraging they return to Hawthorne post a work on 9/26 and land in this race.

#8 FRONT END must continue the progressive of speed figures though has shown to be most effective thus far in turf sprints and holds tactical speed. This is also the lone starter on the card for the connections, perhaps some intent on that front as well. 

With some extreme elements to the race shape (Fire/High SpeedRate) trip is key along with finishing ability. #3 WOLF HUNTER fits those parameters while bringing in current form and subtle flow upgrade from the 9/4 turf start returning to the main track. While reasonable to make a “top pick” still some price compensation is required and perhaps given their overall race record they will be dismissed to some extent by the public.

The Plot position and shape does not appear to flatter #8 OLIVERIO though the recent trips and timing can make a longshot case. They moved up with racing and placed at the right level for their abilities to score the maiden win in June. They worked HARD for that win and open score, something that recorded time before returning to take on winners in August at ELP. They were given a slight flow upgrade (RUSH DUEL) from that higher par and following a trip upgrade carried WIDE on 9/20 at PRM - those races impacting their shown Plot position/shape here.

#5 BYWORD wheels right back and from a subtle trip (TACTIC- MOVE) 11-days ago while taking a rise in class and noted DELAY to the start with a late scratch. While Byword could be compromised if the race is taken to them early with others in this field, at the same time the Q1 Square position has pace advantages.

The opposite end of the pace if there is the Fire/63 to play out, #1 TARPS STORM and #6 JUSTICEONEMORETIME could look to take advantage of that scenario – both horses still legitimate longshots. 

#3 EASY FAST would be so surprise to go favored for the connections and from the recent string of place finishes at this level. While those factors given them a look, they still must step up from the outcome and B- for the win and perhaps opens the door while trying to find an upset alternative.

#2 XAVI holds N2 competitive form while following a positive upswing in the current “every other” form cycle pattern. They find subtle class relief, something that might not appear “on paper” with the higher race par events in each start this year. They landed a similar par with the place finish and competitive in the 5/10 start at FP though at that time was racing above condition at the N3 level.

Looking at the Plot, #6 DOUBLE ECHO should have no excuse on trip and brings in consistent figures and level of class considered a lateral move from the CBY series of races. With that said, they cold still have to earn it at each call with #1 REGAINED POWER in this field and on the inside as the two project to duel.

Sticking with the Plot and the Plot position and shape for EASY FAST, #7 DASH TO THE CASH finds a similar position and shape with projected higher odds. DASH TO THE CASH also holds similar form at this level pairing B- OptixGRADE efforts at this N2 claiming level. 

A fun race to close out the card and to handicap especially if the race plays out as it suggests on the Plot. The higher Fire Contention/52 SpeedRate should let the horses have their say and trip  with pace making the race. The post positions in this case should assure that is the case especially with #9 DICK BEST drawn outside in this group and looking for early position.

That even puts the pressure on #5 POLTERER, capable with the ABOVE rating on Speed/Class though still must overcome AVERAGE- Plot/pace in the group. In that first flight, the pair of H. Rodriguez runners #1 MIDNIGHT BLUE NOTE and #8 SIXWILLLBERICH bring in tactical speed and given the upgraded as Q1 Squares.

A creative case was made for #7 REGIMENTAL two weeks ago and willing to push forward with that idea here. They were showing progressive in the cycle keying off the IMPROVE back on 7/20 and “trip” at FP on 8/30 and while the 9/18 figure is lighter the B- OptixGRADE counters on the positive. Further value consideration for REGIMENTAL as their Plot position/shape is a perfect overlap with rival #3 DANVILLE one that takes less creativity to make the case for.

Deeper closer #6 ROCKET HOTSHOT requires some racing luck with that deeper Q4 Square runstyle though has races that make them competitive and has had success with a similar dynamic in the past.