Handicapper Tips & Picks

Starting the analysis with #6 SHEZ TWISTED making a return from the 69-day break and likely to be favored off the races to date for the connections. While she has shown early speed she has run the same race each time lacking a finish, something that is still a concern overall.

#5 THEN NOW ‘N ALWAYS showed run on debut while GREEN breaking SLOG/TROUBLE_S putting in a MOVE and overall should benefit from the start/PREP. While physically she appears capable of handling added ground, that opportunity will wait returning to 5f with the surface switch to grass.

#2 AVA ROSE gives up experience to the others as the lone first time starter, however in this case can be upgraded as a new face. She brings in steady works and in capable hands. Since 2020 trainer C. Rosin has just a limited 7 horse sample of FTS on the turf though showing a pair of wins and a place one of those wins with a 2yo filly springing 5f and those that had success showed tactical speed. 

An “inside-outside, front-to-back” style of selections in this race. The rail runner #1 DOCTOR OSCAR finds the change in Class (ABOVE+) running today for a tag presenting ABOVE on Speed/Plot to support as a contender. Their early speed should have then forward from the jump forcing others (#2 SIR STERLING and #3 MISTER KELLY) to run with them early if possible with the edge at the First and Second call with finishing ability (Square) looking at the Plot.

#6 CAMP DADDY is also upgraded and waiting for this change for them. Not only will they return to the $25k claiming level where they were competitive B- on 7/3, though a key change in post drawn outside horses, an potential edge not just for this race shape but for this horse overall as they prefer to race outside runners.

#4 TAHOE RUN is the wild card in here. One that must return to their top form to compete though has races to put them in the mix along with local experience. That gives them a look for “intent” if nothing else with the meet at the far turn heading into the stretch and for this IL-bred runner to race for the bonus with today’s placement in for this allowed higher $35k tag. 

The complexion of this field and with today’s par moves each horse up as a potential contender with speed figures on par to win. A lot of the public could land with #3 CAME UP ROSES possible the “safe” option with their tactical speed (flow upgrade from 8/31) and competitive B- OptixGRADE at the level with the 8/17 place finish, a trip with adversity start to finish. While no major knocks on that front, the potential for a shorter number creates a different reservation.

#5 ENTICING OPTION could be just as advertised in that case as she also finds the change in class from their two recent starts. While the C+ OptixGRADES at this level from earlier this season require a step up each race was not “bad” – a lack of “red” in the OptixNOTES and all at shorter sprint distance and perhaps as of late has moved up with the distance change as much as the surface.

#1 HELEN OF C’VILLE should move up if ever on the class drop and while projecting to move up on TURF and with number improvement on the surface switch, they will trade for class relief here. The main track figures from FP sit in line with the recent numbers to suggest she can transfer her current form. HELEN OF C’VILLE could land higher odds than #6 GOPHERS AXE finding a change in class and purse. One could reasonable make the “new face” case. though will also be tested over this main track and two turn distance for the first time.

When looking at the Plot with the Sun Contention and higher 67 SpeedRate, a reasonable “longshot” case can be made for #4 WAVE OF MEMORIES with more than half of the field above the ParLine, positioned in Q1/3 and WAVE OF MEMORIES with an off the pace Q4 Square brings in a buried solid late kick to compete. 

Following the Plot theme and race dynamic, the Fire Contention paired with the higher SpeedRate comes into play for this race and should have a say on the outcome. That change in dynamic could just the very key for #6 TALL GIRL one that has been stuck behind Very Slog/Slow early race shapes and compromised. She showed more tactical speed contesting the 9/14 Very Slow early pace though taken out of her runstyle something to add fitness here along with the post and return to O. Mojica today.

The winner of the 9/14 race, #1 LADY HELENA was able to run her race upfront assisted with both the Very Slow early and late race shape – something that looks to change here noting the Snowflake Contention on the day and now finds Fire. Looking at Surface/Distance, LADY HELENA and #5 LILY’S CREED overlap to suggest they could be in a duel right from the break.

Common rival and TALL GIRL stablemate #3 PASTA SALAD RHONDA wheeling right back once again and does present ABOVE on Plot and ABOVE+ on Class to fit in this spot. She could be asked for a more assertive ride today and perhaps some intent with a rider change mixing things up.

#2 DESSERT FIRST should have the pace to chase as a Q4 Square and that opportunity to run her race from that standpoint. With that said, she might not hold value with the recent finishing positions including the win two weeks ago and this is a step up in class that is not as obvious of a rise as it actually is. 

#6 MAUI STRONG appears a standout in this field and prime contender. They starter out their career on the turf moving up with route distance and last November a dominant B+ MSW win at CD. From there they have been on a quest for a second win though given the stakes placement and overall competitive races and figures still recording $137k in earnings. As far as their races in stakes company they paired up B- OptixGRADES in the two G3 stakes races and going back to February at GP recording a B OptixGRADE (winning effort for the level) in the Kittens Joy stakes, a race comparable on par and purse to today’s event to suggest they are placed to contend with intent. As far as trip, they are positioned as a Q1 Square and can certainly compete from that spot though throughout the other stakes races, has shown trip versatility, a testament to class where they can rate and finish – something that ultimately might be their ideal trip.

MAUI STRONG also posted a C+ OptixGRADE in the Secretariat (G2) the same Grade as rival #1 ANEGADA on the day despite the change in outcome. M. Maker sending out the 1-2 pair last week in Carey Memorial and positive to see L. Colon with the mount here after giving place finishing Paros, a picture perfect pocket trip ride. They should be looking for a similar trip and bring in fitness chasing a Very Fast early (and late) pace in the $2 million Gun Runner stakes last month at KYD. 

#6 W W HOTSHOT won the River Bear Stakes last year and is a contender to repeat. They have held their form in 2025 and looking at today’s rating sits as the only runner in the ABOVE category on Speed and Class. That extends to ABOVE+ in terms of runstyle drawn ideally outside in this compact field and for today’s race shape.

W W HOTSHOT is a Q1 Square presenting the edge over #1 INDYVILLE and #5 FAST JACK both Circles in a similar position; and at the same time outside of the projected pacesetters #3 WILDWOOD SICILIAN and #4 RAVIN’S RANSOM both sitting in Q3 – again holding W W HOTSHOT as the lone Q1 runner with finishing ability Square.

A competitive allowance on the turf and notable with four of the seven sharing an EP runstyle and legitimate with that group showing their preferred trip often on the lead or near the lead. With #5 SHEZALITTLESTINKER trying the turf for the first time, they lack Surface/Distance data, though on Standard (current form) should be pushing #4 MY LADY SLEW (Q1 Circle) and even #3 MY BUDDY BROOKS drawn inside the other two with Q3 first call early position. SHEZALITTLESTINKER can be upgraded on that front and fits on par with speed figures and class despite the unknown change in surface.

With more than half of the field sharing that EP runstyle and looking at the Plot, the “obvious” closers with #1 ATOMIC HABITS and #6 JOURNEYIST as the larger Q4 Squares, the value sits with #7 YAMILE’S with buried form. YAMILE’S follows a positive form cycle pattern with speed and class on par. She looks to benefit from the race shape as well as a change in Plot position/shape for her coming back from the 9/4 start as well as a shift to an outer post while reuniting with O. Mojica. 

#1 BEARS’ D finds a lower race par than their prior grass races returning to this circuit. The races starter off the year reasonable could have been assessed as PREP as a MN-bred and waiting for the CBY meet. That presented upside on that surface and in the two recent grass efforts both within means to contend here.

Number wise they are right in line with #6 CASH APP MIKE one who just needs to find the right group and trip though competitive and progressive with the grass races this year. They have been consistent on speed figures while showing improving Grades topped off with the B effort closing the gap on first run pocket winner, San Anton on 9/21.

#7 BLACK RUSSIAN is right there on his best day and arguably his better, more competitive efforts have been run over this course at this MCL level. While finishing behind CASH APP MIKE two weeks ago, BLACK RUSSIAN was WARM and compromised by rider TACTIC- following the SLOG TROUBLE_S.

Looking outside that group for a “new face” a lot of attention could land with #3 RYAN’S SHADOW a belated second start and with all the changes in play could almost be taken as a FTS. They bring in a steady and progressive series of works through September and some faster times where showing early speed could be projected.

#2 BODADDY was very GREEN on debut and the type overall to appreciate experience. While they are taking the rise in class the rise is not too big as they lightly raced to suggest they are over their head, though still must show a much improved effort to compete. 

A tricky race to close out the card. Looking at the Plot, #4 SKY RAVEN looks to hold a first call pace advantage with some finishing ability as a Square, however, is also positioned in Q3 with the presence of Q1 runners #3 LOST SUNSET and #6 TWO TIMER to be kept honest and with a significant change in distance returning to 5.5f that must be factored into value.

#2 FOXY ZORRA also potentially in the right tracking trip (Q2/3 Square) wheeling right back and finding a change in class with the return to the main track with the shorter sprint distance experience on her side. Stablemate #1 HOLY IMAGE has races that fit, a solid Hawthorn record though does require a trip with the shorter distance in play. Perhaps they are in the right hands as jockey I. Hernandez on a strong trend with trainer C. Rosin at Hawthorne – positive $1.69 ROI with 29% winner and 55% ITM.

#5 HIGHWOOD requires a return to top form though looking at the Plot, they are very easy to get to and make the case for. Perhaps the time off after the series of races was required and with the 72-day freshening has the pair of September works at Hawthorne and potentially live hands with CJ McMahon in town to ride and just one of two mounts for them on the card – the other aboard PERRY COUNTY in the Hawthorne Derby  - another positive ROI ($1) jockey/trainer combination, granted outside this circuit. 

6-SHEZ TWISTED will get a lot of play and might deserve it but she, like most in here, is making her turf debut. will race without blinkers for the first time. She has been running out of gas late but racing on turf is a whole new ballgame. Slim pick. 5-THEN NOW ‘N ALWAYS raced evenly to finish third, on dirt, in her career debut. Loves her series of drills since that race. Moves to the lawn which isn’t always a strong point for runners from her barn but those works suggest that she deserves the chance. 4-ALROSA finished fifth in both her starts but her second race was much better than her first. She’s bred to like the lawn. Might be able to challenge top choice on the front end.  

Interesting conditions on this race. None of these runners have won a race in 2025. 1-DOCTOR OSCAR looks like the quickest of these. He has won more money and won more races than any of his rivals, but he hasn’t scored in at least two years. However, he is dropping in class and just might outlast these rivals. 2-SIR STERLING, like top choice, ships in from Minnesota. He did beat that rival in a restricted stakes race last year. But he’s had 12 races this year and is another without a win. Might be vulnerable again. 4-TAHOE RUN hasn’t been in the best of form but he could turn out to be the best closer in this compact but speedy field.  

Someone in this race will be a maiden no more. Wish I knew who. 6-GOPHERS AXE has the highest dirt speed figures and she’s dropping to her lowest level ever. 5-ENTICING OPTION also drops. She showed little on turf in her last couple but raced far back on dirt prior to those turf races. The switch back to the main track can certainly help. 4-WAVE OF MEMORIES has never been close but she did finish third in her last two and seemed to want more distance in those races. The stretch in distance could help.

1-LADY HELENA was able to wire the field in her last start because she never faced much early pressure. There doesn’t appear to be any more speed in this field. It wouldn’t be too big of a surprise if she wired them again. 2-DESSERT FIRST improved in every start since getting claimed by this barn. She crushed the field in last but, like top choice, she has had only the one recent win. Could be tough.  3-PASTA SALAD RHONDA drops back to the right level. She was a non-threatening fourth in last, beating only one, but that was a far tougher field. Reawakens now that she’s back where she belongs. 

Wide open and a good betting race. I guess the safe pick would be 6-MAUI STRONG. Although he has only the one victory, he’s been facing far stiffer competition than most in here. If they send him to the lead, he could have an issue because this field is filled with other speed. But it’s his versatility and the ability to come from off the pace that makes him dangerous here. 1-AMEGADA is certainly dangerous. He has only a maiden claiming win to his credit but he’s a very good closer and the pace of this race will set up perfectly for him. The fact that he had a strong third-place finish in a mile and three-sixteenths race lets you know he can handle the distance. I was so tempted to pick 2-BUTTONS AND LACE. She's a filly meeting the boys but love that she has gotten progressively better with every passing start. She is a pure closer. But she has never raced beyond a mile. Not sure the nine-furlong distance of this race is in her range. 4-TAUNTING flew late and just missed in a mile and a sixteenth event. He’s meeting his toughest field so far but, with the way he closes, the distance of this race could give him the advantage. 7-PERRY COUNTY has had two races at the distance, one on turf and the other on dirt, and he ran very well in both of them. But there is just so much other speed in this field that he could wind up fighting for the lead from start to finish.  

6-W W HOTSHOT, like so many of his rivals, is loaded with speed. However, he’s one of those that doesn’t need to be on the lead to win the race. He’s a 16-6time winner, including a score in last year’s edition of this race, and he’s approaching $500k in earnings. Think he’ll be tough once again. Not sure 2-MIDNITE ALEX is up to facing this group but he is the lone closer in this speed-filled contest and he did win his last two races. 4-RAVIN'S RANSOM won five pf his eight races, including his last three. He will be fighting it out of the front end. 

Interesting spot for 5-SHEZALITTLESTINKER. She never ran on turf and she’ll be meeting many others with speed but think she’s still going to be the quickest member of the field. Plus, she’s going to be a price shot in a wide-open field and you almost never get a price on a runner when Catalano and Loveberry team up. 6-JOURNEYIST was a decisive winner over most of this field in her last start. She was able to track the pace and run by late. Should find a similar scenario in this race. It can yield the same results. 1-ATOMIC HABITS could be the best closer in here. She is taking on tougher in her local debut but things could set up her way.  

It could be graduation day for 1-BEAR'S D. He’s dropping out of Minnesota-bred maiden specials and he finally seems to have an idea what to do. The slight cutback in distance should enhance his chances since he’s been tiring late. Should be on or near the lead throughout. Not in love with 6-CASH APP MIKE but he’s had four turf races with similar rivals and finished in the money in three of them. 5-MORE MONEY MO is in better form than most in here. Those races have been on dirt but he’s had two previous turf races, both versus better, and he finished third in both.