Handicapper Tips & Picks

Starting the analysis with #6 SHEZ TWISTED making a return from the 69-day break and likely to be favored off the races to date for the connections. While she has shown early speed she has run the same race each time lacking a finish, something that is still a concern overall.

#5 THEN NOW ‘N ALWAYS showed run on debut while GREEN breaking SLOG/TROUBLE_S putting in a MOVE and overall should benefit from the start/PREP. While physically she appears capable of handling added ground, that opportunity will wait returning to 5f with the surface switch to grass.

#2 AVA ROSE gives up experience to the others as the lone first time starter, however in this case can be upgraded as a new face. She brings in steady works and in capable hands. Since 2020 trainer C. Rosin has just a limited 7 horse sample of FTS on the turf though showing a pair of wins and a place one of those wins with a 2yo filly springing 5f and those that had success showed tactical speed. 

An “inside-outside, front-to-back” style of selections in this race. The rail runner #1 DOCTOR OSCAR finds the change in Class (ABOVE+) running today for a tag presenting ABOVE on Speed/Plot to support as a contender. Their early speed should have then forward from the jump forcing others (#2 SIR STERLING and #3 MISTER KELLY) to run with them early if possible with the edge at the First and Second call with finishing ability (Square) looking at the Plot.

#6 CAMP DADDY is also upgraded and waiting for this change for them. Not only will they return to the $25k claiming level where they were competitive B- on 7/3, though a key change in post drawn outside horses, an potential edge not just for this race shape but for this horse overall as they prefer to race outside runners.

#4 TAHOE RUN is the wild card in here. One that must return to their top form to compete though has races to put them in the mix along with local experience. That gives them a look for “intent” if nothing else with the meet at the far turn heading into the stretch and for this IL-bred runner to race for the bonus with today’s placement in for this allowed higher $35k tag. 

The complexion of this field and with today’s par moves each horse up as a potential contender with speed figures on par to win. A lot of the public could land with #3 CAME UP ROSES possible the “safe” option with their tactical speed (flow upgrade from 8/31) and competitive B- OptixGRADE at the level with the 8/17 place finish, a trip with adversity start to finish. While no major knocks on that front, the potential for a shorter number creates a different reservation.

#5 ENTICING OPTION could be just as advertised in that case as she also finds the change in class from their two recent starts. While the C+ OptixGRADES at this level from earlier this season require a step up each race was not “bad” – a lack of “red” in the OptixNOTES and all at shorter sprint distance and perhaps as of late has moved up with the distance change as much as the surface.

#1 HELEN OF C’VILLE should move up if ever on the class drop and while projecting to move up on TURF and with number improvement on the surface switch, they will trade for class relief here. The main track figures from FP sit in line with the recent numbers to suggest she can transfer her current form. HELEN OF C’VILLE could land higher odds than #6 GOPHERS AXE finding a change in class and purse. One could reasonable make the “new face” case. though will also be tested over this main track and two turn distance for the first time.

When looking at the Plot with the Sun Contention and higher 67 SpeedRate, a reasonable “longshot” case can be made for #4 WAVE OF MEMORIES with more than half of the field above the ParLine, positioned in Q1/3 and WAVE OF MEMORIES with an off the pace Q4 Square brings in a buried solid late kick to compete. 

Following the Plot theme and race dynamic, the Fire Contention paired with the higher SpeedRate comes into play for this race and should have a say on the outcome. That change in dynamic could just the very key for #6 TALL GIRL one that has been stuck behind Very Slog/Slow early race shapes and compromised. She showed more tactical speed contesting the 9/14 Very Slow early pace though taken out of her runstyle something to add fitness here along with the post and return to O. Mojica today.

The winner of the 9/14 race, #1 LADY HELENA was able to run her race upfront assisted with both the Very Slow early and late race shape – something that looks to change here noting the Snowflake Contention on the day and now finds Fire. Looking at Surface/Distance, LADY HELENA and #5 LILY’S CREED overlap to suggest they could be in a duel right from the break.

Common rival and TALL GIRL stablemate #3 PASTA SALAD RHONDA wheeling right back once again and does present ABOVE on Plot and ABOVE+ on Class to fit in this spot. She could be asked for a more assertive ride today and perhaps some intent with a rider change mixing things up.

#2 DESSERT FIRST should have the pace to chase as a Q4 Square and that opportunity to run her race from that standpoint. With that said, she might not hold value with the recent finishing positions including the win two weeks ago and this is a step up in class that is not as obvious of a rise as it actually is. 

#6 MAUI STRONG appears a standout in this field and prime contender. They starter out their career on the turf moving up with route distance and last November a dominant B+ MSW win at CD. From there they have been on a quest for a second win though given the stakes placement and overall competitive races and figures still recording $137k in earnings. As far as their races in stakes company they paired up B- OptixGRADES in the two G3 stakes races and going back to February at GP recording a B OptixGRADE (winning effort for the level) in the Kittens Joy stakes, a race comparable on par and purse to today’s event to suggest they are placed to contend with intent. As far as trip, they are positioned as a Q1 Square and can certainly compete from that spot though throughout the other stakes races, has shown trip versatility, a testament to class where they can rate and finish – something that ultimately might be their ideal trip.

MAUI STRONG also posted a C+ OptixGRADE in the Secretariat (G2) the same Grade as rival #1 ANEGADA on the day despite the change in outcome. M. Maker sending out the 1-2 pair last week in Carey Memorial and positive to see L. Colon with the mount here after giving place finishing Paros, a picture perfect pocket trip ride. They should be looking for a similar trip and bring in fitness chasing a Very Fast early (and late) pace in the $2 million Gun Runner stakes last month at KYD. 

#6 W W HOTSHOT won the River Bear Stakes last year and is a contender to repeat. They have held their form in 2025 and looking at today’s rating sits as the only runner in the ABOVE category on Speed and Class. That extends to ABOVE+ in terms of runstyle drawn ideally outside in this compact field and for today’s race shape.

W W HOTSHOT is a Q1 Square presenting the edge over #1 INDYVILLE and #5 FAST JACK both Circles in a similar position; and at the same time outside of the projected pacesetters #3 WILDWOOD SICILIAN and #4 RAVIN’S RANSOM both sitting in Q3 – again holding W W HOTSHOT as the lone Q1 runner with finishing ability Square.

A competitive allowance on the turf and notable with four of the seven sharing an EP runstyle and legitimate with that group showing their preferred trip often on the lead or near the lead. With #5 SHEZALITTLESTINKER trying the turf for the first time, they lack Surface/Distance data, though on Standard (current form) should be pushing #4 MY LADY SLEW (Q1 Circle) and even #3 MY BUDDY BROOKS drawn inside the other two with Q3 first call early position. SHEZALITTLESTINKER can be upgraded on that front and fits on par with speed figures and class despite the unknown change in surface.

With more than half of the field sharing that EP runstyle and looking at the Plot, the “obvious” closers with #1 ATOMIC HABITS and #6 JOURNEYIST as the larger Q4 Squares, the value sits with #7 YAMILE’S with buried form. YAMILE’S follows a positive form cycle pattern with speed and class on par. She looks to benefit from the race shape as well as a change in Plot position/shape for her coming back from the 9/4 start as well as a shift to an outer post while reuniting with O. Mojica. 

#1 BEARS’ D finds a lower race par than their prior grass races returning to this circuit. The races starter off the year reasonable could have been assessed as PREP as a MN-bred and waiting for the CBY meet. That presented upside on that surface and in the two recent grass efforts both within means to contend here.

Number wise they are right in line with #6 CASH APP MIKE one who just needs to find the right group and trip though competitive and progressive with the grass races this year. They have been consistent on speed figures while showing improving Grades topped off with the B effort closing the gap on first run pocket winner, San Anton on 9/21.

#7 BLACK RUSSIAN is right there on his best day and arguably his better, more competitive efforts have been run over this course at this MCL level. While finishing behind CASH APP MIKE two weeks ago, BLACK RUSSIAN was WARM and compromised by rider TACTIC- following the SLOG TROUBLE_S.

Looking outside that group for a “new face” a lot of attention could land with #3 RYAN’S SHADOW a belated second start and with all the changes in play could almost be taken as a FTS. They bring in a steady and progressive series of works through September and some faster times where showing early speed could be projected.

#2 BODADDY was very GREEN on debut and the type overall to appreciate experience. While they are taking the rise in class the rise is not too big as they lightly raced to suggest they are over their head, though still must show a much improved effort to compete. 

A tricky race to close out the card. Looking at the Plot, #4 SKY RAVEN looks to hold a first call pace advantage with some finishing ability as a Square, however, is also positioned in Q3 with the presence of Q1 runners #3 LOST SUNSET and #6 TWO TIMER to be kept honest and with a significant change in distance returning to 5.5f that must be factored into value.

#2 FOXY ZORRA also potentially in the right tracking trip (Q2/3 Square) wheeling right back and finding a change in class with the return to the main track with the shorter sprint distance experience on her side. Stablemate #1 HOLY IMAGE has races that fit, a solid Hawthorn record though does require a trip with the shorter distance in play. Perhaps they are in the right hands as jockey I. Hernandez on a strong trend with trainer C. Rosin at Hawthorne – positive $1.69 ROI with 29% winner and 55% ITM.

#5 HIGHWOOD requires a return to top form though looking at the Plot, they are very easy to get to and make the case for. Perhaps the time off after the series of races was required and with the 72-day freshening has the pair of September works at Hawthorne and potentially live hands with CJ McMahon in town to ride and just one of two mounts for them on the card – the other aboard PERRY COUNTY in the Hawthorne Derby  - another positive ROI ($1) jockey/trainer combination, granted outside this circuit.