Handicapper Tips & Picks

5yo #5 CHARLEY PRIDE is the right horse to start the analysis with as the favorite and logical type in this race. They hold consistent figures sprinting on the dirt and class relief from those California races has them with an edge in that category as well. Coming back today for the second start this season, they have recency second off and from the 9/21 turf sprint behind their stablemate winner, San Anton.

They will be joined by another stablemate here with #1 TONKA TROUBLE showing up for a belated second start. Going back to their debut last April at KEE visually they showed some MSW class weakness suggesting a DROP and less concerned with that move here given the time it has taken this one to start and return to the track while looking to place them reasonably and with a live rider as E. Gallardo picks up the call.

#4 MY LAST ESCAPADE brings in a level of consistency and racing today for the allowed higher claiming tag. While technically this would be considered a rise in class, looking at the race par from the events this year this is closer to a lateral move for them and should hold form and compete in this group. Perhaps some intent follows with a rider change, J. Felix taking over for the first time and a rider with success for this barn this meet. 

An interesting condition to bring this group of runners together as often horses at this level have faced off against each other and in this case many are meeting for the first time. In the case of ML favorite #6 MCMONEY they fit as an individual, however perhaps less ideal for today’s race shape to present value concerns.

The race shape could also present a hurdle for #2 POLTERER one that also fits overall especially if and projected for #4 EUCLID AVENUE (Q3) to contest the early pace. That scenario assists #5 STRONGER TOGETHER one that fits off current form, runstyle and has had success with this unique race shape – Snowflake + Higher (63) SpeedRate.

That similar consideration in race shape moves up both #1 LAND MARK DEAL and #3 ICE AXE both still long shots to win, though a scenario for that upset is not out of the question. 

#5 PHILLEEISRAEL is one of two for the H. Robertson barn and interesting runner to present overall upside in a belated second start and for today’s conditions. They met a competitive group for the level starting off the year at OP in January while adversity in running breaking SLOG and behind horses taking KICKBACK- showing a MOVE with overall PREP visuals. While they clearly needed some time after the published works since August have been consistent and progressive enough to come out race ready. Barnmate #7 YE OLE JOKER has the edge in recency and from the visuals appears surface versatile with the change noted here.

#1 SAELI fits well in this case as closer to a lateral move as far as class while racing protected in MSW company on this circuit. They debuted in a tougher spot from the outside post and asked for the two turn distance while adversity making a WIDE RUSH X_FLOW into a Fast early (Very Fast late) race shape. They could require a better break given the rail draw along with the shorter distance though things that based on the ML could be compensated for, though will see how the public reacts to the connections showing up on this circuit for the first time.

Similar with trainer W. Cowans shipping in homebred #4 BRIENNE OF SKYE to make their debut and in live local hands with O. Mojica aboard one that has been entered twice in 5f turf sprint races at HS Indy to show intent with placement. That is notable, as overall the barn is capable with FTS and the number in the standard past performances will be leaned on, however the numbers change with FTS one the turf winless since March 2020 debuting on the grass in a compact 13 horse sample. Only three of those at the sprint distance and while figure wise consistently on par for today’s group, there has been not much early speed from the sample and could project this one makes a late run. 

The most likely winner of this race should come from #1 XPRESSIR with early speed and some of the overall higher recorded figures in this field; or #2 BREAKING NEWS also with the higher career numbers and current form along with tactical speed for today’s race shape. Looking at the Plot, XPRESSIR should be looking to clear and find Surface/Distance separation though needs every bit of it with the Circle, to represent a lack of finishing ability. BREAKING NEWS drawing just outside of them should be tracking and looking for first run, a similar trip for #5 SHAMEN SEZ one that might require a new top, a faster race to run though not out of the question, rather will price compensation be in play is.

Looking outside the box, #7 LAVENDER EARL is the “wild card” with the distance change cutting back to a sprint for the first time in a long time, though does fit with the change in class, subtle buried form along with speed figures on par.

A return to a top or posting a new top is crucial for #4 CHAMPAGNE MIKE though one that has shown progression as of late and since the removal of the front wraps. Looking at the Past 3 Runlines they show improving OptixGRADES where following that pattern with a projection, if they were to run a “B” – a winning race for the level, this would be the time. 

It is an interesting dynamic with the Snowflake Contention and lower SpeedRate while at the same time brings 7 of the 12 runners sharing the E/EP runstyle. There is a RED PlotFit and a scenario with many stretching out the Contention/SpeedRate turns out to be higher.

Taking that into account, consider upgrading runners “outside” that box and even in the case of “longshot” #4 STORM’S REFLECTION. There is upgrade for this runner with back numbers/class on par and for the two turn distance. Their current form cycle also with positives keying off the STRETCH on 9/4 and making a positive PRERACE+ appearance on 9/18. They will find that belated distance change and rider change as well with J. Felix taking over and perhaps some further intent with all the changes in play in what should be plenty of price compensation.

#6 SHARP STICK also brings in current form and competitive races on par. They were compromised with the extreme SPACED dynamic with race winner, Code Name and similar but different from the 9/21 X_WIDE trip making a MOVE showing run behind their stablemate winner, Hawks Creek. That race a common race with #9 CANYON STREAK recording a solid B- OptixGRADE and logical in this race with their form this season, change in class and potential race dynamic to fit their runstyle.

#7 BRIT BLITZ also fits today’s race dynamic and well-spotted making their return to Hawthorne. They have held their form and figures at CBY including their most recent start on 9/17 with the TROUBLE_S and finishing in a BLANKET while not asked for their best late.  In addition to checking the boxes on Class, Pace/PLOT and speed their Form cycle presents a further positive on the upswing of an every other pattern. 

#1 ATMIDNITE should appreciate every bit of today’s Fire Contention paired with the higher 59 SpeedRate for today’s race as a strong Q4 Square. That upgrades her as well from the 9/13 race when making a CLOSE (along with other trip adversity as shown in the OptixNOTES) into a Very Slow early and late pace. Even as ATMIDNITE holds as a contender in this race, their value should hold given the depth of this field.

#4 SUPRISE ME AGAIN would not be any surprise they bring in current form from the races this season and at this level; however, she has come up short not only in finishing position but the string of B- OptixGRADES at the N1 allowance level without a change in par. That is noted as ATMIDNITE recorded a B OptixGRADE at this level course and similar distance back on 6/1 finishing together with another C. Block runner, Roar of Silence.

#3 MO PICS PLEASE would also not be any shock though does not appear to present value in this race and while they are unlikely to battle SUPRISE ME AGAIN on the lead they could for favoritism given the connections and recent KYD effort. Trip will be key for MO PICS PLEASE and could find competitive company forwardly placed with #7 STAR BLESSING towards their outside. Overall to win MO PICS PLEASE could require recording a repeat top effort while tested doing something new with the change in distance and circuit to factor on value.

#2 SPICY DELIGHT is a reasonable longshot in this race though on Standard (current form) Plot lines up nearly the same as MO PICS PLEASE. In addition, SPICY DELIGHT will get her chance today to run on TURF, a surface she has physically presented for since the start of her career. She had success on the main track and tough to change what was working at the time and has held her form since along with some turf placement intent last season to note. 

#5 DOUBLE THUNDER does not appear to hold any strong pace advantage looking at the Plot, however some of that could be “dirtied” up with trips and the sprint races. They land positively in the upswing form cycle pattern and with the key STRETCH in distance returning to two turns at Hawthorne. Their race on 9/13 was solid as far as maintenance noting a public dismissal from the 3-1 ML and in terms of trip, a slight lunge out of the gate and lacking early speed with the Fast dynamic while making a late MOVE, a sneaky close.

The pair of T. Rengstorf runners complement each other in this race with #7 WORDS OF WISDOM (Q1 Square) and #1 PRINCE RAMA (Q3/4 Square) coming in from CBY. While both are capable at this level, preference to PRINCE RAMA for value and with today’s race shape. Their most recent running line, a higher level spot at the end of the meet, still recording a C+ OptixGRADE and BLANKET finish at the wire and continued to run out past the wire to suggest they will appreciate the two turn return. 

A competitive race to close out the card and tough to put any strong knocks on any in this group. #3 WOODCOCK FLIGHT should find a favorable trip as they are drawn well to save ground and between rivals #2 REDFIELD and #4 HARD TO FATHOM to track and look for first run. In addition to sitting ABOVE+ on Plot they are backed up  with the ABOVE+ Class rating as well. That trip is key with another main contender #5 EVEN THE WIND one that will be running late where WOODCOCK FLIGHT will look to secure that first run.

As far as HARD TO FATHOM they return looking for some redemption following, in my opinion, a controversial DQ on 9/21. With that said and the result, take nothing away from #1 BOUBON LIFE promoted and one that has been consistent and surface versatile should that come into play.

In terms of redemption #6 RIVER REDEMPTION should hold with price compensation looking to cycle back to a top in their third start of the cycle. Value is key in here, while not the most ideal Plot position, has on more than one occasion run fast enough to win and the B OptixGRADE win on 8/24 with a nearly identical par keeps them in the mix. #8 CAUGHT OFF GUARD brings in enough current form and can be mentioned for underneath especially with the 8 horse field offering High 5 wagering in the finale.