Handicapper Tips & Picks

5-CHARLEY PRIDE didn’t show much as the favorite in his local debut but he was racing around two turns for the first time while making his first start outside California. Turns back in distance and goes from turf to dirt. Has a great chance to make amends. 4-MY LAST ESCAPADE has been knocking at the door. He finished in the money in last four. He’s another turning back in distance. Could finally graduate in his 16th start. 1-TONKA TROUBLE didn’t show a thing in his lone start but he was in a $100,000 maiden special at Keeneland and got a fair amount of play. That race took place almost 18 months ago. He’s been training well recently and finds a far, far easier group in this spot. Deserves a second look. 6-LUCKY SEVEN is fresh off a second-place finish at Fairmount. He went off as the odds-on favorite in that spot. It’s been four months since that race and he’s meeting a bit tougher but it wouldn’t be a surprise if he was a major player in this spot.  

6-MCMONEY drops back into straight claimers. He was a convincing winner the last time he raced against rivals similar to these. Can be again. If 5-STRONGER TOGETHER runs his race, there’s a good chance that he will win this one. Came up just a little short in last when meeting some old hard-knocking veterans but he won a couple nice races earlier this year. He’s going to face a lot of pressure on the front end but might be able to put them away. 1-LAND MARK DEAL stretches back out. Think he’s better sprinting but he has had some success at this distance.   

2-D' ARGONAUT finished up the track in three of her four races but she just missed in the other, her lone race on the lawn. She came from off the pace in that race, though she displayed speed in the rest of her starts. But think they’ll have her coming on late this time. Have some qualms about 1-SAELI but think she holds a considerable speed edge at this distance and think it’s possible she’ll lead from start to finish. 4-BRIENNE OF SKYE is a well-bred first timer with good workouts from a barn that has had a lot of starters and maintains a high win percentage. Getting the top local rider doesn’t hurt. 3-TRIPLE MOON turns back in distance, a 21% winning move for runners from this barn. 

Pretty sure 1-XPRESSIR will grab the early lead. Just not too sure how long he’ll stay there. He tired badly in his last two starts but one of the races was his turf debut and in the other he got caught in a speed duel while coming off a layoff. Think he’ll be unchallenged early in this spot but it might not make enough difference. Slim pick. 5-SHAMAN SEZ has been in good form all meet. He finished in the money in his last five, including a daylight victory in last. But he’s taking on somewhat tougher and more successful rivals today. Might not be able to repeat. 2-BREAKING NEWS is often tough on this track. He’s coming off a narrow loss but he finished up the track in his previous three races. Hard to gauge. 

3-Not in love with 3-GRAND ILLUSION but he’s been in good form for months and he just missed in last when making his turf debut. There’s a good chance he’ll be even better with experience.  9-CANYON STREAK finished behind top choice in last while going off as the favorite. They are both dropping in class. For this runner he’s dropping to his lowest level ever. With Rivelli and Mojica in his corner you know he will draw plenty of action. Could make amends. 7-BRIT BLITZ is another dropping to a new career low. He hasn’t been in the best of form recently but this Canterbury shipper has had a couple good races here in the past.  

4-SUPRISE ME AGAIN should be a major player. She finished in the money in all three turf races. She has been an even runner who is likely to track the pace with her connections hoping that the many speed runners in front of her come back to her. 3-MO PICS PLEASE has had only one turf race and she only managed to split the field in that one but her tough turf debut came at Kentucky Downs, with their monster purses. This usually quick runner hopped at the start and raced near the back of the pack early. But she came on strong when they turned for home. Stretches out for this race. Would expect her to be on or near the lead quickly. Late-running 1-ATMIDNIGHT had had 19 turf races with three wins but she only finished second in her previous two local starts. The pace will set up for her. Should be right there nearing the wire. 6-OH MACARENA might be in too tough but she won three of her five local races and has been a factor in nearly all her grass appearances.  

There are a few others in this race with speed but not sure they are going to be able to keep up with 3-GENERAL ISSUE. It’s always possible that he’ll be caught but if he gets out of the gate cleanly, the rest will be chasing him in the early going. If top pick doesn’t break cleanly, 7-WORDS OF WISDOM will be right there. He’s in the midst of a good year with two wins and two seconds in five races this year. He just missed going seven furlongs in last at Canterbury. If that race had been at today’s distance he probably would have won it. 1-PRINCE RAMA will be coming late. He won three of his last five and five of his 13 races this year. He was in too tough in his last at Canterbury but fits this spot perfectly. 

4-HARD TO FATHOM has a couple first-place finishes against rivals similar to these this year but he was disqualified from his last and placed third. Still, he showed that he can beat runners like these. He’s equally adept on or off the lead. Will be a major player once again. 5-EVEN THE WIND comes from far back. He finished behind top choice in his last two but if the proper pace sets thing up, he could be closing fastest of all. 7-SONIC SPEED went through a bit of a dry spell but starting four races back, he came back alive. He ran very well in those last four in Minnesota. He’s generally good at similar distances. Figures prominently.