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Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Fri October 10th, 2025

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Emily's Analysis

Keeneland Race 2

Post Time 12:32 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#8 CHAMBOURCIN brings in upside and familiar second off pattern into this race. They hold experience and competitive effort from the short sprint debut in April before validated that effort with their May MSW win at CD before the recent layoff. The layoff return on 8/31 was a tough spot all around - giving up recency first time, winners, stakes company, first turf/two turns and further compromised chasing part of a Very Fast early pace - a race shape with the top two flow-aided from off the pace. The race should add fitness for today's race; the overall conditioning and has show the ability to pass horses while holding tactical speed, something that should be key with today's race shape. 

Santa Anita Race 1

Post Time 3:00 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

Tough to completely trust #1 IMA JOKER (no value) at a short price in this field. Tactically IMA JOKER also could be put in a tougher spot from a pace standpoint forced to chase #4 PRINCESS SNOW (one that can shake clear to threaten gate-to-wire) and IMA JOKER does not have a clear-cut runstyle and left to rider tactics. 

#2 TIARAQUEEN should be sitting on a peak effort. They land third off from a TACTIC- WIDE MOVE trip off the bench on 8/8 only to follow up with an EX making a MOVE X_FLOW and WIDE CLOSE on 8/31 and return with a rider change today to at the least signal intent. 

Santa Anita Race 3

Post Time 4:00 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#9 ZOFFARELLI can be upgraded from the DMR series of sprints and proves a value alternative as a Surface/Distance Square to #8 JETOVATOR (Circle) with a similar runstyle/Plot position. ZOFFARELLI had a legit EX back on 8/17 and subtle btl making a WIDE RUSH and MOVE to finish in a BLANKET behind their stablemate off the pace closing winner, Sbagliato. 

#6 SIMPLEXITY also can be upgraded from the DMR race if not nothing else the change in class and key distance back to ONE_TURN. They also reunite with H. Berrios second off the claim to further intent. 

In the theme of "alternatives" #1 COMMANDER should hold value in this race and another with a similar runstyle and form to rival #2 AGENCY as they project to gate attention for the connections without any overwhelming edge in this group. 

Woodbine Race 5

Post Time 5:26 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#4 ETHNIC SOUL has been stuck at this N2 level for quite some time and demands value (ML at minimum) with that factor in play. With that said, if they are to clear the condition, this should be the time and place. They hold competitive B- races at the level, their runstyle fits today's race shape (something that could play against projected favorite #3 GOTME GOOD) and reuniting with S. Civaci suggests intent as a rider that has been aboard for the place finishes over the Tapeta.