Handicapper Tips & Picks

With #6 WINGING WAYS drawn outside they will be forced to clear their other rivals to make the lead and as a Circle paired with the fire should be tested to hold late. Those rivals they must clear are not the same E “need the lead” though share the EP runstyle to sit close and look to finish. Upgraded clearly, #5 RUSSIAN TO WIN as a Large Square looking to set up a third straight win.

#4 STRANGE ARRANGE also looking for a third start win as well and from a slight 42-day freshening with numbers this season on par. A longshot case can be made for #1 UNCAPTURED PULSE – they sit is a similar position albeit a larger Circle; and some concerns on that front, however, is moving forward in their form cycle and should be sitting on a peak effort with those races sitting on par.

#3 MON AMI FUZZIE as a Q4 Square should be running on late and while the noted Fire Contention, the SpeedRate on the lower end could be tougher for their off the pace trip on the win end. 

This race brings one of the higher race par of the meet and on that front both numbers and class move up #4 OY GEVALD. Their main track form and figures fit on par and returning to this circuit and main track suggests intent keying back to the B+ MSW win on 8/10.

#2 RUN JALEN RUN also fits with numbers and class on par. They can be upgraded from the HS Indy race last month when forced to RUSH WIDE while contesting an early honest pace. Looking at the Plot, they are not the “need the lead” the FAN races might suggest as they can rate, and finish as shown sitting as a Q2 Square on OptixPLOT and tracking off projected pacesetter #1 WE MISS ARLINGTON from the rail. 

#8 URBAN RULER brings in foundation and local experience into this spot with fitness second off. They return from a top figure last month at KYD, the highest recorded in the field and competitive B- OptixGRADE for the higher MSW par/purse with a TRAFFIC trip. They also showed run through adversity on 7/3 showing a MOVE after the SLOG and on the day DQd from place behind a seemingly talented FTS stablemate winner called NO AH A – place finishing OY GEVALD running in Race 2.

Trainer E. West enters a pair in this race and the only race on the card the barn is represented in to suggest at least one of the runners has intent. #6 SAMDINI with experience put in a sneaky CLOSE in their debut, sprinting at CNL. While that race at the $40k MCL level, the pair was higher than today’s race and even than the 8/20 MCW PID sprint when recording a B- OptixGRADE. #5 UNBEATABLE could be out looking to run as advertised in this debut. The barn is capable in this category since March 2020 with a 9 horse sample of turf sprinting debut runners has two wins and three place with figures compete with today’s par.

#4 RIPTON’S MUSIC finds a softer race par showing up on this circuit and looking at OptixPLOT their runstyle could present a further pace advantage in this field. Going back to their turf sprint races earlier this year both class and timing appeared to play a greater role in outcome than surface. #7 ANTHONY THE GREAT could still be tested run “faster” with today’s group though has the surface/distance experience recording a respectable B OptixGRADE back on 8/31. 

#2 LONG TALL WOMAN has been looking for a spot since the two turn experiment back in August and back to the main track with class relief fits on par with today’s group. She also could suggest further intent with the rider change – J. Loveberry taking over today for the first time and has success in limited mounts for this barn though a notable upgrade since picking up the mount on Soul Coaxing.

Looking at the Plot, LONG TALL WOMAN shows a similar Plot position in Q2 though not as tough to ignore size Square as #6 AWESOME SUNDAY. They also return with a freshening and back to Hawthorne. While they drop back in for a claiming tag off a layoff and win to present some reservations, they did race at this level on 6/8 restless in the GATE making a WIDE MOVE with the B-place finish.

#5 WRITTEN CONSENT should look to rebound in this spot and keying off the races under similar conditions this season paired up B OptixGRADES – the first with the win back in May and more recently side by side with the winner, Fast N Happy on 8/31. 

The level and complexion of this field creates a competitive event and no real strong standout to accept a short price or make the case for a major horse to beat.

#8 SHE STOPPED SHORT physically presents on the TURF side and will make that surface switch in here for the first time. In addition to that potential positive change, her overall form and figures fit on par for this level, back at the right back to compete and finding relief noting a higher par on 8/24; with a subtle trip as well given a TROUBLE_S WIDE and NO_PUSH to factor when looking at the running line and finishing position.

#7 GEORGIA ON E’SMIND could be overlooked off the recent running lines and finishing position while bringing in for from those recent races back to the turf sprint distance. She has figures on par with competitive races over this course earlier this meet. The change in rider and dynamic should allow their best chance in this group.

#2 ANNIE’S HOPE should appreciate today’s SHORTER distance and back to sprinting on the turf. While she has sprinted as of late and run on the grass, this will be the first time since her races when back on the SoCal circuit sprinting on the turf with those efforts on par.

Also tough to completely discount #4 MADELYN ATTACK arguably back on their preferred surface/distance and reuniting with S. Gonzalez, a rider that has had suggest with the show and win outcome back in July. 

The early pace should be honest and then some with the Fire Contention paired with the high 85 SpeedRate and shown visually on the Plot with more than half of the field to the left of the y-axis and above the ParLine. That scenario upgrades the Q2/4 Squares under this dynamic.

A pair of those represented by C. Block: #6 ANOTHER MYSTERY wheels right back from the Carey Memorial and while unable to repeat on the day they still showed run following the SLOG to make an inside, SAVED CLOSE with an improved number now in their third start of the cycle. #10 LEADING THE CHARGE also in their third start of the cycle with a positive pattern to suggest they are sitting on a peak effort. While the return numbers this meet are on the lower side, that can be contributed to the lack of recency and main track on 8/28 and the sprint distance on 9/18 shorter than their ideal and now has the STRETCH returning to the grass.

#8 PROTONIC POWER also has shown progression coming back this year off the layoff and returning to the grass and route distance with the conditioning on their side. Some intent for this spot could be projected scratching from a starter allowance last month at PRM to stay local while reuniting with J. Felix, a rider that fit this horse when the two paired up last April with the place finish. 

A longshot case can be made for #6 OLIVERIO once again. The connections might feel similar wheeling right back from the 10/2 start upgraded graded racing WIDE X_FLOW. That race should have them fit and to hold their conditioning. Trip will be key with the cut back in distance, though countered with the fitness, along with change in Class and numbers that fit on par.

#5 BEGGIN’ FOR TROUBLE also could be sitting on a peak effort from the same 10/2 common race. They find the key SHORTER distance in this second start and upgraded with that change as well as flow chasing in part of the Fast early pace from the rail. Their sprint races from the sprint at HOU fit on par perhaps this spot suggests intent making the rider change to O. Mojica and perhaps could even see the wraps wrap removal.

In terms of pace, reasonable to see #8 REGAINED POWER taking their spot up front and with similar intent wheeling back with the class drop to attempt to take the field gate to wire. They are the only E runstyle horse in this field and with five other rivals in this group sharing the EP runstyle they must use their speed to try and clear, or those others (including tracking Square #9 CANTARITO) will be right there looking to stalk and pounce.

#1 GABE’S CHOICE is another tracking Square and with the lighter speed figures coming into this race could (and should) hold value. They improved second off with their MSW win back in June and following that pattern another new top can be projected here. They turned in an honest effort in against winners last month and chasing their stablemate winner, Shaman Sez through a Slow early and late pace. 

#5 MAN ON ATTACK has been knocking on the door for a win this season and with consistent figures on the grass should have their best chance today. They bring in tactical speed with finishing ability something that could be key with today’s race shape (Fire/31 SpeedRate) to work a trip. Further intent on that front could follow while not fault of the recent rides, S. Gonzalez takes over today and could be looking to just mix things up.

First run might be key with #8 I O FEDRO a contender right back and with consistent form and figures on par for this level. They have also consistently shown some gate issues (SLOG, TROUBLE_S, RUSH) in their career and translate to a lack of early speed though brings a late kick (Q4 Surface/Distance Square) and the noted dynamic gives them a chance with that off pace trip.

On that note, #4 MARINARA SAUCED also brings in a late kick with any number of races that fit on par to compete and picking up a live local rider in L. Colon. They should present value here for lower profile connections and coming off the recent running line and outcome from the layoff. Both factors are not necessarily knocks; starting with trainer the barn last 5 years holds a positive ROI with 13% winners and 35% ITM and the race off the layoff could easily be a “prep” noting a TROUBLE_S and NO_PUSH while protected on the day. 

Four of the six runners in this race won their last start. Two of them won their last two. While they haven’t exactly been taking turns beating each other up, they have, for the most part, been running against similar rivals. I like the versatility of 5-RUSSIAN TO WIN in this spot. Like most of his rivals, he owns good early speed but it’s his ability to finish with authority that makes him the pick. 6-WINGING WAYS might hold a slight quickness edge. He wired a similar field in last. But it’s likely that he’ll be hooked early and could tire if forced to fight for the lead. 4-STRANGE ARRANGE, like top choice, won his last two races and also like that pick, is versatile enough to handle any pace. 2-NEON DIEON also rates high on the versatility scale. He came from off the pace to score a longshot win but he also wired the field the previous time he ran on dirt.

4-OY GEVALD pretty much proved that he isn’t a turf horse in two of his three recent starts. However, in that in-between race, he dominated runners in his lone local dirt start. He might not be first out of the gate in this race but think he’ll have the lead by the time they turn for home and could hold it the rest of the way. 2-RUN JALEN RUN showed little in a recent pair of Indiana races but he dominated in his two Fairmount starts prior to that and he had been running well at Oaklawn this spring and in Kentucky late last year. His speed figures suggest that he’s as fast as top choice. Could be an interesting race. 1-WE MISS ARLINGTON jumps in class to take on this group and he might simply be in too tough but he has been so good on this track, winning five of nine local dirt races, including his last five, that he has to be worth another look.

The short sprint distance of this race makes it a bit more interesting. If this race was at five and a half, I think 8-URBAN RULER would be a standout. However, this distance could be too short for him. However, he just finished third in a maiden turf sprint at Kentucky Downs, after finishing second in his prior start here. Still think he’s the one to beat but he might run out of real estate. 7-ANTHONY THE GREAT and 4-RIPTON’S MUSIC could be fighting it out for the front end. Anthony the Great just missed when making his turf debut at this distance two races back, while Ripton’s Music displayed good speed in all his races, especially his turf debut at Gulfstream in February when his first two fractions were :20.3 and :43.00.

3-LOST SUNSET can surprise again. He won last Sunday and paid about $47 doing it. He appears to be the best of the speed ion this spot. Might take the lead quickly and never look back. 6-AWESOME SUNDAY takes a pulling drop. He’s been in good form for months and beat allowance company downstate in his last start after he narrowly lost against the same kind of company in his previous start. But he took over three months off after that last win. Sparse drills since and a drop to the basement raise all kinds of danger flags. 5-WRITTEN CONSENT finished second in his last two starts. He’ll be tracking the early pace and should continue to make up ground throughout the stretch run.

7-GEORGIA ON E’SMIND should get an ideal pace ahead of her. She has had five races at this distance and finished in the money in four of them. Gets into a straight non-winners of three. Tracks early, pounces late. 3-HIALEAH HOTTIE goes for her third in a row. Quick mare seldom fails to grab the early lead. If she is left alone to coast on the front end early, they aren’t likely to catch her. 4-MADELYN ATTACK is another likely to come on late. She’s dropping in class and turning back in distance. The last time she turned back from a mile to a race at this distance she came on late to win and paid over $55. Wouldn’t ignore.

Nine-year-old 6-ANOTHER MYSTERY might have lost a few steps but the probable pace of this race could make him feel like a youngster once again. He isn’t the only closer in this speed-filled field but his back class could reassert itself in this field. Takes them late. 10-LEADING THE CHARGE, stablemate of top choice, is another that will be flying late. He finished second in his last three starts. It wouldn’t be a big surprise if he was first to cross the wire. No guarantee that 5-DEVIL’S HARVEST will be ready after a 11-month layoff but he has always been awfully quick from the gate and his barn has a knack for bringing runners off layoffs back ready. 

1-GABE’S CHOICE is the slim pick. Lightly-raced runner finished second in last, his first start against winners. That race came after a brief layoff. He should be fitter with that contest under his belt. Maybe. 4-TWO STORMY OCEANS has been knocking at the door. Canterbury shipper finished third in his last three races. Might get over the hump today. 8-REGAINED POWER will try to lead throughout. He tends to run out of gas but he’s dropping to his lowest level ever. Might last on the lead.

5-MAN ON ATTACK could get the trip. He has had a lot of starts and not a lot of success but he has been in good form recently and could prove best in this wide-open race. 8-I O FEDRO has suddenly turned into a pretty good closer. Winner of last should get more than enough pace ahead of him in this spot. Can make it two in a row. 1-DINO’S DIXIE will try to wire the field. Not sure he can get the distance, all of his recent races have been at five or five and a half furlongs, but he could build a commanding lead and forget to stop.