Handicapper Tips & Picks

While taking the “off the pace” approach could be risky leaving out front runners including #3 POLTERER, the outside three could find the right changes with the inside three setting the pace to work a trip.

#4 ICE SHARD makes the change to this restricted claiming level and real key change in race shape. The Fire Contention paired with the 43 SpeedRate has them under a different dynamic for the first time this season. They had a similar scenario back on 8/28 though a tougher ask with the higher class level that day. ICE SHARD also should be sitting on a peak effort showing some tactical speed in the 10/2 start to further fitness and even intent with the rider change to O. Hernandez, a rider that has not been utilized this meet though going back through the years shows a positive ROI since 2017.

#5 REGIMENTAL and #6 DANVILLE wheel back from the 10/2 common race with DANVILLE finishing as part of the top three together at the wire, a Larger Square and overall more “obvious” of the two. With that said, REGIMENTAL can be upgraded with the trip and perhaps some intent with the rider change O. Mojica the win rider from back on 5/29 reunites. In terms of trip, REGIMENTAL was off a step slog then some early KICKBACK- moving X_WIDE outside horses at each point of call showing a MOVE – all things tougher to see on the running line and finishing position. 

#3 ONE TIMER fits right back and upgraded with the fitness on their side. Even the extra half-furlong returning from the 9/18 start nothing compromised break (TROUBLE_S) and moderate opening ¼ leading them a lot to do while making a MOVE and ground loss (X_WIDE) to put in a CLOSE for show.

The 9/18 race winner #7 CONGRATS ON FIFTY was able to take advantage of the FLOW while staying on as the BOS – today’s Contention rating shifts from a Snowflake last month to Fire with a slightly higher SpeedRate and change in post shifting outside as well as that noted slight addition of ground.

The change in SpeedRate is in part to #4 BIG VINCE returning from the layoff, a sophomore sprinting with legitimate early speed. While their turf sprint form is not nearly as established as the 6f Tapeta early speed should still apply and intent for that tactic with J. Felix aboard.

The inside draw should be advantageous for #1 DARK VINTAGE one that scored over this course and distance back in June and stepped up out of town with the six-digit purses in KY since. While unable to secure a win in those two recency starts both races competitive B- OptixGRADE with improving figures, numbers on par here. Stablemate #10 LEADING THE CHARGE scratched from a route event last Sunday and fit for that distance while class a lateral change here. Holding for place in the 9/18 common race was an honest effort for them however still presenting physically STRETCH as far as distance. 

In terms of the trio with experience, each has shown run in their races to date while giving the edge to #5 GOGH with the foundation as well as for today’s extended sprint 6.5f distance keying off the STRETCH keywords and the shift back to the outside post could land a further positive.

#2 HEAVENLY BELIEFS has plenty of foundation with the steady works extending back at least since the beginning of July. Some questions with that level of added patience at the same time the connections are more than capable in this category with the added intent as J. Loveberry jumps aboard. A live jockey/trainer combination (43% win, 71% ITM at HAW in 2025, positive ROI) also pairing up with #4 EARL’S OUTLAW one that should be very fit off the recent distance drills including a mile move on 10/9. 

The way this race comes together on class makes for a tricky element with all stepping up. Things could also change as #7 LEMON DROP SHOT is cross entered at KEE on the same day.

As far as the race shape, #1 GENERAL ISSUE presents the edge as a Q1 Square though does not mean they will not be tested with the higher Contention and SpeedRate as the majority of the field is present in Q1/3.

#8 BOURBON LIFE holds the contrast as the lone Q4 Square while on a positive “every other “ pattern shifting back to the main track, a surface versatile runner and showed as much on the grass in the two recent starts – notably BLANKET/B- finish with the 6^th place outcome 10-days ago.

#3 MYSTIC POWER should hold enough price compensation to get creative with. While they are not as “strong” with the Plot edge, they bring in form and upside. Even going back to earlier this meet racing under a similar allowance condition on 5/25. They recorded a C+ OptixGRADE and upgraded making a CLOSE X_FLOW and a change in dynamic should assist as well as the timing and recent route conditioning. 

A very solid group lines up for the Pat Whitworth Illinois Debutante Stakes with accomplished juvenile fillies arguably some that have yet to show full potential.

In terms of established runners, #6 BIAGODDESS has that edge with the two wins progressive figures and already rose to take on winners with the allowance score on 9/7. With that on her side, she still faces a test here and with the two recent maiden winners including #1 THEN NOW ‘NALWAYS wheeling right back in two weeks.

#5 ZEE (like BIAGODDESS) recorded a B+ OptixGRADE with her MSW win back on 9/7 following a credible debut and also progressive figures and foundation to translate here. The barn will also be represented with #2 CULTURE SHOCK one that brings plenty of upside from a potentially productive open MSW event three weeks ago. CULTURE SHOCK showed run following a TROUBLE_S to make a WIDE RUSH behind the top two setting the pace throughout and should benefit from the PREP – one easily could take the step forward and on the level of their main rivals. 

#8 D’ARGONAUT clearly stronger on the grass just comparing the figures and efforts of the two turf starts this season. The effort and B OptixGRADE from back on 7/10 makes them a contender and the ML holding is a clear value opportunity.

#9 W W BEST OF TIMES also holding their own on the turf and figures a flow upgrade (X_FLOW0 part of Very Fast/Fast early (and late) race shapes while contesting the pace.  She is draw outside of #4 ESCOVEDO looking to set the pace coming back from the 101-day layoff and holds turf sprint experience.

#1 ULALUME projects to be one of the longer if not the longest on the board and a legitimate longshot to win. With that said and going back to the 2024 late season debut, presented surface versatility and while it could have been more encouraging following the layoff return in July back quicker than 98-days, perhaps a reach but at the same time something for underneath to get creative with. 

#5 TAP THE LINE returns under similar par and N2 conditions off the claim and cutback to a sprint. Looking at the Plot she brings in some tactical speed (Standard Q3) though a strong late kick compared to others in this field represented by the Large Square. Some intent could follow given the rider assignment – utilizing the new OptixEQ jockey/trainer tool on Plot, shows success with a positive ROI since 2022 to suggest intent.  

In terms of the early pace, tough to knock the Q1 Squares #2 THE LAST THRILL and #6 KIND KISMET both project similar odds and preferred in this scenario over #7 CAME UP ROSES as the favorite. The timing all around can upgrade KIND KISMET (Speed/Plot ABOVE+) for the second start of the meet and wheeling right back for the 9/7 start perhaps a role in outcome now give 42-days recovery.

#1 JOYZELLA has some longshot hurdles to clear on the win end, though positive change in timing as well and shift on the Plot. The Surface/Distance Q2 Square position is at the least worth underneath consideration. 

#2 KEEN GAL has look from the debut last month and should benefit from the experience while racing GREEN. Despite the hurdles going out around two turns from the rail on the grass she showed run while inside/SAVED of horses making a MOVE and strong GALLOP+. She appears to have come out of the race well working to hold conditioning from the gate in the 5f move on 10/12 retaining live rider in L. Colon here.

#6 RESORT FEE also upgraded from the 9/25 common race with a subtle trip/TACTIC- after breaking on top took back rated inside/SAVED with TROUBLE in running and impacted their outcome. She brought upside into that start from the two WO starts both strong race par and still given the opportunity to step up on this circuit.

#3 I’M HUNGOVER had the local and overall experience edge on the day (9/25) though had some class concerns at the shorter odds taking the rise following the two MCL starts and still those factors to consider – especially on the win end, however capable.  

#1 HEAVENLY BEAR makes the transition to Hawthorne and the turf and the route distance while bringing in current form and B OptixGRADE from the 9/17 CBY start. They showed run against the dynamic (Slow early/Very Slow late) to close the gap on front running 1-2 chalk winner, Red Volta. They will trade the “B” edge for Surface/Distance experience, something on the side of #4 MIRACLE MINDED one racing the turf/route events at CBY and upgraded from the “trip” on 9/25 getting a local start and scenic X_WIDE route on the day compromised their chances to compete and following the TACTIC- a reasonable expectation with the rider change.

Notable last week with E. West debuting winner Unbeatable on the turf in a sprint a key angle for that barn. Things change with #9 NELLY K debuting around two turns and while similar intent could follow, the overall record not as strong with 1-for-17 three others finishing 3rd though perhaps more impactful in this case are the overall figures for the entire sample in line with many of the runners in this field. Similar trainer stats follow the connections of #5 MAJORING IN GOLD one that has been on the Hawthorne grounds training this season and now in this late season debut. 

Projected favorite #11 CLIFF DIVER could present vulnerable in this spot without a strong edge (Average/Average-) in all categories. That includes pace with Q1 Standard giving the edge to #9 CHAOS REIGNS as a Square. This will be their first start over the turf though should be able to transfer their form and not showing up in this race would be tough to pin on the surface switch alone.

Q1 also has the presence of #1 CAMP DADDY one that could be overlooked off both the dirt races and current outcome. The change in class is massive; the timing is positive and in terms of Surface/Distance they began their career in two turn turf races breaking their maiden at the 8.5f distance by open lengths at HS Indy (2022) and holding their own with competitive figures in KY the remainder of that season and has not really had a change on the grass since.

Stablemate #8 HAWKS CREEK brings in the established turf route form and while this appears a drop, the open company claiming change actually shows a slightly higher par, though closer to a lateral move. That is especially when considering the races and par from last season where they should hold their form and capable of competing, even repeating in this spot.

#12 SONIC SPEED was slightly taken out of their runstyle to contest the 10/9 pace WIDE outside of horses. That tactical change and ground loss playing a role in the NO_FINISH while still holding ground late in a BLANKET finish at the wire. Returning to a tracking trip as suggested on the Plot should have them right back in the mix. Their Plot position shape similar to #3 COMMISIONER OSCAR holding form and in capable hands given the two wins and TACTIC+ including the 9/28 recent from A. Bendezu. 

Whose turn will it be today? Most of this group has faced each other multiple times and they seem to take turns running well. But 1-MIDNIGHT BLUE NOTE seems slightly more consistent. This 12-year-old finished in the money in his last four, winning once. He runs well on or slightly off the pace. 6-DANVILLE will be coming on late. The pace, as it always seems to in his races, will set up for that late run. Can get there. 3-POLTERER might be the best of the speed but he, like the other front runners, is vulnerable to a speed duel. 

No real idea if this race will be on turf but looking at the forecast, and after watching it rain on and off all day, I’m thinking not. But we’ll see. I think 7-CONGRATS ON FIFTY will be tough on either surface. He hasn’t been good on “off” tracks but our main track dries out quickly and one of his two turf victories was scored on a “good” turf track. 8-ORANGE DIABLO was entered for the main track only. This Canterbury invader won his last two starts and his speed figures compare well with any of these rivals. 4-BIG VINCE showed little when making his career debut on turf but he’s been running well on synthetic since and has been stakes-placed twice. Although he never ran on dirt, he’s been popping bullet drills, and his pedigree suggests that he should be good on turf, despite his lackluster effort in his debut. 3-ONE TIMER doesn’t seem as fast as he once was but he did win a $200k turf stakes and just missed in a Grade 2 turf sprint. He’ll have dead aim late.  

Not a lot to go on here but 1-FIGHT THE POWER displayed good speed and held on fairly well in his lone start and he’s had a couple long workouts since. Experience counts, especially at this long spring distance. 5-GOGH is easily the most experienced. He’s had three decent races and only one has been longer than five furlongs but he could be most prepared to get the distance. Can never ignore runners racing for Catalano. Homebred 2-HEAVENLY BELIEFS has been training well at Keeneland coming into this, his career debut.  

Love the speed and consistency of 1-GENERAL ISSUE. He’s been a front end force all year. He doesn’t make the lead in every race and he doesn’t win every time he makes it to the early lead but see few of any of his rivals likely to keep up with him today. 7-LEMON DROP SHOT might trail early but he’s likely to come flying in the stretch. He won two of his last four at Fairmount but it was his fourth-place finish at Churchill in last that makes me think he’s a legitimate threat to win this. 6-INDY FREEDOM wired his last two fields at Canterbury. His last was on turf but his previous start was on dirt. These Minnesota shippers have been doing quite well here since Canterbury closed. This colt might be the only one capable of giving top choice a serious early challenge.  

5-ZEE looks like the one to beat. She just missed in her career debut and then came right back to wire a maiden field while going off as the odds-on favorite. Meets better and possibly faster runners in this spot but think they could have a hard time catching her. 6-BIAGODDESS could offer the stiffest competition. She won her last two starts; the last on dirt and the previous race on the lawn. Like that she has shown the ability to race competitively on or off the pace. 1-THEN NOW N ALWAYS finished behind top pick in their career debut but came right back to score a win of her own when moved to the lawn. She’s back on dirt for this but she ran well on this surface in her debut and could display continued improvement today. Just like Heavenly Beliefs in the first, 3-MO TOWN RENEE will be making her career debut in a stakes race for Wayne Catalano. Ignore at your own risk. 

8-D'ARGONAUT drops. She narrowly missed in her turf debut. Showed little in last but had severe traffic woes. She’ll be meeting other droppers today but this is still likely her easiest field yet, though I only like her chances if this race stays on the lawn. 4-ESCOVEDO finished fourth in all her races but, like top choice, this will be her easiest field yet. I would probably make her the top pick if this race did get moved to the main track. 9-W W BEST OF TIMES will be gunning for the lead on either surface but do think her chances are better if this race stays on grass. 

6-KIND KISMET finished second in both local starts. She has decent speed but think others are quicker and she’ll have to try to run them down. 7-CAME UP ROSES has made considerable progress since moving to this barn. She romped when trying two turns on dirt for the first time and she’s turning back in distance for this but she also finished second in her lone dirt sprint since moving to this barn. 3-LIL CARRIE D had some traffic issues in her first start against winners and showed little but she did beat Came Up Roses to break her maiden two races back. 

9-NELLY K is a well-bred first timer with sharp connections and strong drills. Seems ready for her debut. 3-I'M HUNGOVER ran well in her last two turf starts. She has been coming from a bit off the pace but that could change with the addition of blinkers for this race. 1-HEAVENLY BEAR has had the best dirt race of any in here. She’s not necessarily bred well for turf but guessing her connections were looking at the weather forecast when they entered her in this spot to make her turf debut. 

Not sure if the old guy has much left but 13-READTHECLIFFNOTES takes a substantial drop in class. His recent races haven’t been that sharp but his last three starts were in what turned out to be “key” races from which multiple winners went on to win their next start. He will only start if this race comes off the weeds. 3-COMMISSIONER OSCAR won his last two and four of his last five races and five of his nine this year. He never wins by much but just seems to constantly get up in the last couple strides. 9-CHAOS REIGNS hasn’t raced in a few months and has had only limited drills since his last start but he’s likely to be one of the top contenders if this race gets moved to the main track. Neither 11-CLIFF DIVER nor 12-SONIC SPEED showed much in their local debut but both were in good form in Minnesota prior to their Hawthorne races and both are eligible to bounce back with good efforts, though Cliff Diver has been far better than Sonic Speed on the main track.