Handicapper Tips & Picks

Whose turn will it be today? Most of this group has faced each other multiple times and they seem to take turns running well. But 1-MIDNIGHT BLUE NOTE seems slightly more consistent. This 12-year-old finished in the money in his last four, winning once. He runs well on or slightly off the pace. 6-DANVILLE will be coming on late. The pace, as it always seems to in his races, will set up for that late run. Can get there. 3-POLTERER might be the best of the speed but he, like the other front runners, is vulnerable to a speed duel. 

No real idea if this race will be on turf but looking at the forecast, and after watching it rain on and off all day, I’m thinking not. But we’ll see. I think 7-CONGRATS ON FIFTY will be tough on either surface. He hasn’t been good on “off” tracks but our main track dries out quickly and one of his two turf victories was scored on a “good” turf track. 8-ORANGE DIABLO was entered for the main track only. This Canterbury invader won his last two starts and his speed figures compare well with any of these rivals. 4-BIG VINCE showed little when making his career debut on turf but he’s been running well on synthetic since and has been stakes-placed twice. Although he never ran on dirt, he’s been popping bullet drills, and his pedigree suggests that he should be good on turf, despite his lackluster effort in his debut. 3-ONE TIMER doesn’t seem as fast as he once was but he did win a $200k turf stakes and just missed in a Grade 2 turf sprint. He’ll have dead aim late.  

Not a lot to go on here but 1-FIGHT THE POWER displayed good speed and held on fairly well in his lone start and he’s had a couple long workouts since. Experience counts, especially at this long spring distance. 5-GOGH is easily the most experienced. He’s had three decent races and only one has been longer than five furlongs but he could be most prepared to get the distance. Can never ignore runners racing for Catalano. Homebred 2-HEAVENLY BELIEFS has been training well at Keeneland coming into this, his career debut.  

Love the speed and consistency of 1-GENERAL ISSUE. He’s been a front end force all year. He doesn’t make the lead in every race and he doesn’t win every time he makes it to the early lead but see few of any of his rivals likely to keep up with him today. 7-LEMON DROP SHOT might trail early but he’s likely to come flying in the stretch. He won two of his last four at Fairmount but it was his fourth-place finish at Churchill in last that makes me think he’s a legitimate threat to win this. 6-INDY FREEDOM wired his last two fields at Canterbury. His last was on turf but his previous start was on dirt. These Minnesota shippers have been doing quite well here since Canterbury closed. This colt might be the only one capable of giving top choice a serious early challenge.  

5-ZEE looks like the one to beat. She just missed in her career debut and then came right back to wire a maiden field while going off as the odds-on favorite. Meets better and possibly faster runners in this spot but think they could have a hard time catching her. 6-BIAGODDESS could offer the stiffest competition. She won her last two starts; the last on dirt and the previous race on the lawn. Like that she has shown the ability to race competitively on or off the pace. 1-THEN NOW N ALWAYS finished behind top pick in their career debut but came right back to score a win of her own when moved to the lawn. She’s back on dirt for this but she ran well on this surface in her debut and could display continued improvement today. Just like Heavenly Beliefs in the first, 3-MO TOWN RENEE will be making her career debut in a stakes race for Wayne Catalano. Ignore at your own risk. 

8-D'ARGONAUT drops. She narrowly missed in her turf debut. Showed little in last but had severe traffic woes. She’ll be meeting other droppers today but this is still likely her easiest field yet, though I only like her chances if this race stays on the lawn. 4-ESCOVEDO finished fourth in all her races but, like top choice, this will be her easiest field yet. I would probably make her the top pick if this race did get moved to the main track. 9-W W BEST OF TIMES will be gunning for the lead on either surface but do think her chances are better if this race stays on grass. 

6-KIND KISMET finished second in both local starts. She has decent speed but think others are quicker and she’ll have to try to run them down. 7-CAME UP ROSES has made considerable progress since moving to this barn. She romped when trying two turns on dirt for the first time and she’s turning back in distance for this but she also finished second in her lone dirt sprint since moving to this barn. 3-LIL CARRIE D had some traffic issues in her first start against winners and showed little but she did beat Came Up Roses to break her maiden two races back. 

9-NELLY K is a well-bred first timer with sharp connections and strong drills. Seems ready for her debut. 3-I'M HUNGOVER ran well in her last two turf starts. She has been coming from a bit off the pace but that could change with the addition of blinkers for this race. 1-HEAVENLY BEAR has had the best dirt race of any in here. She’s not necessarily bred well for turf but guessing her connections were looking at the weather forecast when they entered her in this spot to make her turf debut. 

Not sure if the old guy has much left but 13-READTHECLIFFNOTES takes a substantial drop in class. His recent races haven’t been that sharp but his last three starts were in what turned out to be “key” races from which multiple winners went on to win their next start. He will only start if this race comes off the weeds. 3-COMMISSIONER OSCAR won his last two and four of his last five races and five of his nine this year. He never wins by much but just seems to constantly get up in the last couple strides. 9-CHAOS REIGNS hasn’t raced in a few months and has had only limited drills since his last start but he’s likely to be one of the top contenders if this race gets moved to the main track. Neither 11-CLIFF DIVER nor 12-SONIC SPEED showed much in their local debut but both were in good form in Minnesota prior to their Hawthorne races and both are eligible to bounce back with good efforts, though Cliff Diver has been far better than Sonic Speed on the main track.