Handicapper Tips & Picks

#7 GOPHERS AXE presented as a ONE_TURN type showing up on this circuit and MCL level on 10/5. Some intent should be in play with the conditioning and SHORTER distance with overall speed figures on par.

The 10/5 event a common race with other main rivals including #5 ENTICING OPTION the 4^th place finisher and coming back to improve outcome in the 10/19 common race, an effort in line with #1 D’ARGONAUT, another logical contender right back moving up naturally with the class drop on that day and here as well. D’ARGONAUT given the edge over their stablemate #8 ATRAXA with the higher figures while ATRAXA bringing in tactical speed could keep themselves in the mix.

While GOPHERS AXE arguable ran the more competitive race on 10/5 at their not ideal distance, both #2 TOUR DE’ PORT and #4 WAVE OF MEMORIES also presented more on the ONE_TURN side and make that positive distance change here, though both requiring to find top form. In the case of TOUR DE’ PORT they horse the higher figures, where WAVE OF MEMORIES working though pattern of gate issues (SLOG) should be running on late.

The lone FTS #6 SPIRIT TO INSPIRE could be given a look off that along as the new unexposed face in this field. They showed intent to run on this circuit with steady works and did scratch from a 10/19 off-the-turf $6250 MCL 5f event. 

This race is primarily represented by FOUR barns with a pair of runners making up the bulk of the field with the analysis starting by assessing that group:

E. Lopez sent out #2 TIA LUPE to debut here at Hawthorne back on 9/7 in MSW company showing run (TROUBLE_S MOVE) in spots while GREEN with most of their run on the GALLOP+ after the wire. They should be fit returning to this circuit and sprint distance from a slightly higher par/purse route $30 MCL event three weeks ago at KEE. #9 PROMESA DIVINA should benefit from the class DROP looking overmatched from their 8/17 debut, a race that has held form overall and turned out to be productive.

The L. Rivelli pair find some changes: #4 GREAT OWL was green in their local MSW debut back in July and ran just as evenly returning last month from the freshening at PID  racing in the strong downpour/WEATHER chasing the eventual open length pacesetting winner, Glancing My Way. Stablemate FTS #11 BATTLE WING was entered under similar conditions at PID on 10/9 to show intent for this type of MCL level though does not show a published work since 8/31.

S. Childers will ship in the pair from MSW events at FP also giving up local experience; #3 SHOW PAM perhaps going to be the more fancied with the running line showing early speed in a DUEL racing in a massive downpour/WEATHER – a common race with #12 JACK’S YELLOW ROSE. #6 GOOD NELLIE has been looking for a spot since their “learning experience” debut on 9/9 showing more than perhaps the running line and finishing position suggests.

The pair of H. Robertson runners have followed identical paths this season race-to-race: Going back to the 9/4 debut #7 MOLLY THE CAT fancied of the pair, broke SLOG appeared a PREP and found a similar (SLOG, TROUBLE_S) break on the grass earlier this month while also WARM. #1 ALLISON ROAD also appeared a PREP first out and should appreciate the slight STRETCH and class DROP overall. The class DROP should also benefit #10 AVA ROSE moving to an outer post coming out of the 10/5 common race; needing the experience racing GREEN while able to SAVED ground from the inside post to finish in a blanket for show with the top two together at the wire.

The 9/4 debut featured #8 LILAS OAK TREE turning in a competitive race on the day despite WASTED prerace energy and GREEN in running with a solid MOVE and GALLOP+. They make a positive return to MCL company just needing a race when showing up in the solid 9/28 MSW event - #5 ESPADA also from that race upgraded with the drop. 

#11 ONE TIMER can be upgraded in this second start of the cycle and from the “trip” on 9/18. The might have needed the race from a conditioning standpoint going in lacking a race in 78-days with the connections looking for and scratched from a pair of events (including a Graded Stakes at KYD) during August. That was compounded with the compromised TROUBLE_S making a X_WIDE MOVE and CLOSE behind front running winner and today’s rival, #8 CONGRATS ON FIFTY.

ONE TIMER has some tactical speed to put themselves in contention from the outside post and looking to take first run on #5 SINE QUA NON, a solid contender overall and bringing in consistent form from the races this season capable of pairing up wins. O. Mojica has shown to be a good fit and today’s race shape should allow at the least cover if not an inside run.

#9 DARK VINTAGE has been patiently waiting out a return to the turf noting a scratch from 10/19 with the races moved to the main track that day. O. Mojica was named that day and had been aboard for the N1 allowance win in June, though in capable hands with L. Colon given the mount and overall solid fit on Speed/Class with the ABOVE+ Plot rating.

Their C. Block stablemate #1 LEADING THE CHARGE looks to benefit from the rail draw and should be sitting on a peak effort third off. And while they have been consistent with the place outcomes, numbers this year have been on the lighter side compared to seasons past and in relation to DARK VINTAGE and other rivals.

Conditioning and intent are questions for #2 ALL JOKES ASIDE one that perhaps has been at their best at TP and while they have had some mini-breaks this is the first time since their debut in April 2023 coming off a layoff longer than 3 months. 

While #5 CHAOS REIGNS shows on the Plot, a Circle, that is in part to the 7/3 and 10/19 events – both of those races with Very Fast early paces X-FLOW upgrade. Today’s change in class and second off conditioning could be key to carry and with those recent running line and finishing positions offer some price compensation even with the connections.

The opposite runstyle, Q4 Square #10 DIAMOND DAVE returning to the main track and off the 49-day freshening with competitive form this season, their 10-yo campaign. There has not been a “bad” race from them this season even the dirt races given the “trips” racing against the dynamic, a projected change on that front could assist here.  

Looking for first run, #7 JET FLIGHT looking to regain their peak form from earlier this season and back second off with the WIDE trip returning from the 46-day freshening on 10/9. #8 STRONGER TOGETHER on a different path of timing wheeling right back on shorter rest once again, the two showing a similar Plot position and shape. That is also in line with #6 EUCLID AVENUE one that showed some NO_LINE, something they had done in their past; also wheeling back from the FP start 12-days ago in the 10/18 common race with STRONGER TOGETHER.

#4 BASSCOAT brings in current form though number wise must step up coming in lighter (AVERAGE) for today’s par and in with today’s field. Value could be short given the presence of J. Loveberry while coming off the win and recent in the money finishing positions. 

#1 DEVIL is interesting coming back in this spot late in the meet and on the TURF. Going back to their early race days presented with the physicality to handle the grass and in the lone grass race last September turned in a solid figure with a strong CLOSE into a Snowflake Contention race. A. Bendezu takes back over today for the first time in a long time, they were aboard with an assertive ride to finish second in the 2023 Debutante at FP and could see a similar tactic in play here from the rail. DEVIL might not be as quick to the first call with #3 MARY’S BOON and #7 GRAY LIGHTNING (even #8 SAMARITA back to her top form) though with the rail could establish inside position, save ground and look for first run.

Stablemate #5 R KATIEBUG has the recency and turf foundation though less proven at the sprint distance. This will be their first race sprinting on the turf – the other career sprints over the main track during their sophomore and early 4yo campaign.

Another layoff returnee with #2 KANT BELIEVE IT also presenting TURF visuals in many of the main track starts. They have just the lone grass race, that event a higher level N1 allowance at KEE (5.5f sprint) in 2022, the sophomore season recording a number that fits with today’s group and since them and with maturity has run faster races and those top efforts valid of contender status here.

Their former stablemate #10 EMPIRICAL VIEW could be just as competitive coming off the claim and win last month. They will step back up in class though turned in a win/B on 6/26 in allowance company and upgraded racing X_BIAS on 8/14 while also around two turns. Sharp rider E. Gallardo takes over with O. Hernandez aboard last out sticking with today’s J. Divito runner.

The surface switch comes into play for #6 SWEET MUSIC coming in off a three race win streak along with a change in class presenting some hurdles – hurdles not impossible to overcome though require price compensation and with the “1’s” on top public attention could follow. Stablemate #9 GRACE DARLING consistently placed on the turf and competitive B- OptixGRADE at this level on 10/5 can be left in the mix and could be longer odds of the two while cutting back to a sprint. 

#3 HAY MOON can be given a longshot look in this race. They hold turf form from CBY with races on par, those races with today’s rider E. Gallardo in the saddle to project positive intent. In addition, the odds should hold with the most recent 10/9 running line and finishing position, something to take with a grain of salt given the outside post chasing WIDE behind a Very Fast early (and Very Fast late) race shape.

#5 BRIT BLITZ most recently at CBY though has very competitive races at Hawthorne to stack up as a contender. In addition, they could hold a subtle class edge, N3 eligible though has been racing at a higher level than many of today’s rivals, other N3 runners or horses meeting the eligibility racing at a lower level stacking up wins. Perhaps a similar class upgrade can be made for #2 LICENSE TO STEAL though in the speed figure department, they must run faster to win.

#6 NEW YEAR SURPRISE finds a lateral change in class from their most recent starts and overall competitive series of races. That includes the two B- show finish outcomes on the grass and intent for the turf on 10/19 – a race they had front wraps added and something to look for today. Former barnmate #7 SLAVA UKRAINI has found their peak form as of late and reasonable they remain with the rise in class here. They really caught the eye PRERACE+ on 10/2 a positive physical appearance matching the performance on the track. 

#1 SHACKLEFORD STRONG is a major player at this level, a class drop late in the season, placed for the win as they are perhaps just as high probability to find a claim. They bring in current form noting a legitimate EX – EXCUSE back on 6/29 the layoff that followed returning with a B- OptixGRADE despite the 5^th place outcome two weeks ago. The turf-to-dirt move has been used in the past and similar success over this course with the extended sprint distance.

Apprentice O. Mojica, Jr. takes the call on #4 PLAIN OR PEANUT and could be a live mount. They should be fit coming back to this circuit and from the recent route races. Hawthorne form also decent, even this year with the show finish returning off the 105-day layoff and that followed with a TROUBLE trip EX- EXCUSE on 8/14, this being their first start back in Stickney since.

Cycling back to the Plot and horses outside of SHACKLEFORD STRONG (strong Square Q1/2) trip should suit #8 SHAMAN SEZ and #12 GABAGOOL both Q1 runners with bringing in current form and figures to compete. #7 RED MOSCATO also in that flight wheeling right back from a less than ideal trip forced to push the pace from the inside one week ago (10/23) and perhaps the connections feeling similar as return here.

#11 CHAMPAGNE MIKE is a longshot to consider as they have been coming forward in their recent starts and could be the time and place for them to pop with a peak effort. They gained fitness making a RUSH into the DUEL on 9/18 and subtle trip with the TACTIC_ making a late MOVE and GALLOP+ in the 10/9 common race.

#3 LAVENDER EARL will need some racing lick though a solid good effort despite rider TACTIC- playing a role in a valid DQ (unofficial show) and overall handling that might have cost an unofficial better position if not the win on the day. 

#4 MIDNIGHT SPECIAL has clearly had some setbacks odd for 95-days one that has not been seen since July and with a pair of scratches in August. The drop off the layoff has some concerns attached while at the same time could be a function of finding a spot to run at the end of the meet, taking what becomes available and looking for success on the track while a claim is possible. MIDNIGHT SPECIAL has the Class and Speed figure edge over stablemate #1 NEON DEION, one that might not be as strong in those categories though an honest type that shows up and runs their race, no reason to project otherwise today.

They might avoid the taking as that has been the case for #6 ZOOMBIE one that has just the one win this meet though consistent check earner and competitive when accounting for the B OptixGRADE back on 8/10 at the 5f distance and more recently on 10/16 finishing alongside #11 JOE THE TAILOR (trip from outside post must be considered today) those two together and clear at the wire.

The two D. Reid runners can be upgraded from their efforts this season and with the change in race dynamic to suit both #9 DEVILS RED and #12 GRAND HIDEWAY. Both horses bring in current form and competitive similar numbers even in the case of DEVILS RED coming of the 7^th place outcome in part to the WIDE trip on the day. 

Willing to give #2 DREAM NAP a look right back as they wheel right back from the 399-day layoff return two weeks ago. Perhaps they needed the race, though perhaps more not their ideal trip or race shape with the winner Sultry Kitten moving up to push the pace and hold for the win with DREAM NAP parked WIDE. DREAM NAP should hold conditioning and perhaps even intent though tough to know the full reason for a rider change, though I. Hernandez riding strong all meet including a pair of wins last Sunday – one of those on FTS Candy Talking ($42.20) for H. Robertson.

J. Loveberry aboard DREAM NAP two weeks ago shifts to #3 TRE DITA from that 10/16 common race. One that suggests some intent as they had the option to run the following day at KEE ($80k N2 - $78k purse) staying home and also returning from the layoff encouraging they are back with the quickness for this race. Overall she must run faster though lightly raced with just the two starts and reasonable speed figures projection from the juvenile debut at DED would have her on par here.

H. Robertson also wheeling back with #9 KELLY’S GIRL the place finisher on the day and honest effort tracking that noted winner, Sultry Kitten. Number wise she has shown consistency to keep in the mix and could even carry for the win while the others mention could still have the move forward in them.

L. Rivelli also with #1 SMOKED in this race and one that could get attention off the overall race record. While that is tough to deny the outcome, today’s par is a rise once again and with projected early speed from the inside could find pace pressure with today’s Fire Contention, 5 of the 9 sharing the E/EP runstyle and Surface/Distance “bunched” group around Q1/3.

That bunched up scenario could assist #5 SPICY DELIGHT one that ran a bang-up BTL effort on 10/9. Perhaps some of that was due to the TURF projection and surface switch on the day at the same time has been consistent number wise on the main track and at the least can be kept in the mix. 

#3 UNCAPTURED PULSE fits this condition perfectly and upgraded with the change back to conditional claiming company. That follows a positive “every other” pattern when looking at OptixGRADES with the B- efforts recorded on both 8/21 and place finish on 9/21. Today’s Sun/SpeedRate 10 is similar to the race shape when recording their career top figures with the win on 6/8.

#4 RACARINO also could project an every other pattern of improvement though will be tested again on shorter rest. They caught a competitive group for the level last week, 10/23, forced to RUSH stalking the pace making a MOVE and NO_FINISH as the winner Mon Ami Fuzzie ran from off the pace and the race starting to slow late - #10 OFF TO THE RACES finishing second/B- (TROUBLE_S SAVED) also from off the pace.

#9 STABLILITY has not always been at their peak on the main track though should hold price compensation to get creative with making that surface switch. As far as current form, they can be upgraded off the recent efforts primarily the 10/16 “good” turf event with the WIDE trip, racing against the inside favoring course profile.

Tough to completely dismiss #7 IDEA MAN from looking at the Plot and similar for #2 FULL MAGAZINE runners that at the same time have hurdles in other departments and need the right number and a look on the track/board for further clues. 

Intent did not appear in play for #1 PRINCE RAMA back on 10/9, a race won by their stablemate and again rival, #2 WORDS OF WISDOM. Perhaps PRINCE RAMA needing the start over course and conditioning along with a change in race shape. They find that here moving to ABOVE on Plot and ABOVE on Class. That ABOVE Class gives PRINCE RAMA the edge over WORDS OF WISDOM (Class AVERAGE+) one that still sits ABOVE+ on Speed and Plot/Pace.

H. Rodriguez also represented by a pair in this race to consider as contenders: #5 CODE RUNNER makes a return to Hawthorne with form from the races this season. They can be given a flow upgrade in the four starts following their dominant B+ won on 6/29 – a closer (Q4 Square) was upgraded Very Slow/Slow early/late races shapes in those four starts running competitively along the way. #6 LUCKY BOSS was upgraded fractious in the GATE and taking KICKBACK on 10/4 stepping up with the B- OptixGRADE 11-days ago.

#8 SOUL COAXING needs some racing luck to win, though can use their runstyle for today’s race to remain in the mix. Looking at the Plot with the Q3 Square, they bring in tactical speed and finishing ability while given a slight 35-day freshening for this race picking up O. Mojica. Previous rider J. Loveberry shifts to #10 JUSTICE ONCE and could read some intent with that in play and intention for this meet entered (and scratched) from a similar conditioned event on 10/9. Number/Class wise they come into this race on the lower side though could be carried by their runstyle and Q1 position. 

7-GOPHERS AXE was no match for the winner in her local debut but she finished second, seven lengths ahead of the third-place finisher. Turns back in distance today. Expect her to be more effective. There is no real speed in this race but 1-D'ARGONAUT might turn out to be quickest. 4-WAVE OF MEMORIES finished far back when stretched out in last but she’s turning back in distance today and she finished third in her last two sprints. 

1-ALLISON ROAD races on dirt for the first time. She didn’t show much in her two turf races but runners from her barn score over 40% wins when going from turf to dirt. 8-LILA'S OAK TREE ran well and finished a close third on turf in her debut but took on better in last and finished up the track. However, she did have traffic woes. Had a good work since. Drops to face easier. Expect better. Always have to consider Rivelli first timers but 11-BATTLE WING might win the pedigree war but have definite concerns about her having only one drill in the last two months. 10-AVA ROSE had the one of the better races of any in here. That race was a third-place finish on turf. She’ll be making her dirt debut but her barn does well with their runners switching surfaces.  

It’s been a long time since 11-ONE TIMER visited the winner’s circle but that could be about to chance. This multiple-stakes-winning millionaire will find himself in a race with plenty of front-end pace. He finished third as the odds-on favorite in his first start of the meet but was coming off a layoff to do it. He finished behind a couple of rivals in his last start but now he’ll be running with a recent behind him and he gets some extra real estate to work with in this race. Could fly by them all. 8-CONGRATS ON FIFTY isn’t the only speed in this race but think he’s the best. He wired the fields in his last two turf sprints. Might be able to do the same thing today. 5-SINE QUA NON has been razor sharp in his two starts since moving to this barn after spending his early career in California. He was an easy winner in last after barely missing in his first start of the year. Could easily repeat. 9-DARK VINTAGE has been meeting better with some success but he had one turf race at Hawthorne earlier in the year and he dominated. Could do the same in his return. 

7-JET FLIGHT drops. He took on better in last and finished up the track but he won his previous four races, three at this level. He’s always tough when meeting rivals like these. Today shouldn’t be an exception. 5-CHAOS REIGNS could be tough. He has been having a tough time getting the distance but he’s easily the quickest of these and his last race, his first in nearly three months, was his best in a long time. Drops a notch. Legitimate threat to wire the field.  1-RICKY BOBBY has had two races since dropping to this level and he won them both. Like many in this field, he’ll be coming on late. 3-SIXWILLBERICH has been in great form all year. He finished in the money in none of his 11 2025 races winning twice, including two of last three. Got claimed from last but he has changed hands many times with continues success.  

Not many real turf sprinters in this field but 10-EMPIRICAL VIEW might be one of them. She’s two for two at the distance. She was claimed from one of those wins in her last start but moves into another capable barn. 2-KANT BELIEVE IT didn’t show a lot in her lone turf race but she does own a decent pedigree and she just might be the quickest member of this field. 6-SWEET MUSIC didn’t show much in her only grass race but she is another with a good pedigree and winning her last three races, on dirt, ensures fitness. 

8-MAN ON ATTACK has been something of a tease but he is dropping to the lowest level of his career and he’s been very good at the distance. He might have only won one of his ten at the distance but he finished in the money another eight times. Could get over the hump. 1-GRAND ILLUSION has been in good form anyway but maybe even better since moving to the turf. He finished second in his turf debut and then won his last. With his good tactical speed, he’s likely to be in the thick of things throughout. 5-BRIT BLITZ adds blinkers. He’s been a pretty good closer at times but he might display somewhat better speed today. 

Don’t really like anything in here so I’ll take a flyer on 6-FLYING SAMURAI. He always had great route speed but distance was his enemy. They kept running him at a mile and 70 yards; sometimes at a mile and a sixteenth. He apparently wanted to go seven furlongs or less. Finally turns back in distance. Might forget to stop. 1-SHACKLEFORD STRONG looks pretty obvious with the drop to his lowest level since 2023. But I wasn’t crazy about the way he finished his last two races. It wouldn’t be a surprise if he won this but it would surprise if he didn’t. There is likely going to be a heated pace in this race. 14-COOLTHING might turn out to be the best closer if he can draw into the field. 

6-ZOOMBIE ran well in all local starts, finishing third or better in all five. But he has shown some improvement since moving to the Rivelli barn. He’s not a standout but is probably the one to beat. 11-JOE THE TAILOR drops off the win. He was able to hold off the late move by top choice in last. Might be able to do it again. 4-MIDNIGHT SPECIAL finished third in a stakes race in his last start so it’s a bit surprising that he’s dropping into a nickel claimer, especially since he’s done so well in turf sprints. But's he’s been off since July with only minimal drills so something might be amiss. He’s hard to ignore in this spot but caution is urged. 

Can make a case for most runners in this race but 4-RACARINO does seem most likely. He’s been in decent form while meeting marginally better and he did win the last time he dropped to this level. 10-OFF TO THE RACES is another in good form. Like that he’s able to race competitively either on or off the pace. He has never been a high percentage winner but he does often get close. 7-IDEA MAN generally races at Fairmount but he seems to save his best efforts for when he is shipped to Hawthorne. He won the last time they shipped him here and narrowly missed in his previous local excursion. 

2-WORDS OF WISDOM brought his good Canterbury form in with him. He scored the victory in his first start of the meet, winning for the third time this year from only six starts. He also finished second twice. His lone poor effort came on turf. He’s likely to be a major player once again. 8-SOUL COAXING could be every bit as tough. He has, for the most part, been meeting better rivals. He’s capable of running well on or off the pace and could be tough no matter how the pace develops. 1-PRINCE RAMA is hard to gauge. He had been in good form for most of the year but got simply crushed when making his local debut, finishing 25 lengths behind top choice. On the other hand, he beat that runner by five in their previous meeting. Can he bounce back?