Handicapper Tips & Picks

#5 SPEAK UP projected to move up with the change in class on 10/23 and land back under similar conditions with what appears a softer group. While it would have been more encouraging on the day to see more they had a WIDE trip (similar WIDE on 9/27) and might not have been the right part of the course given the inside positions of the successful runners in that race. Price compensation is still required as they really must turn things around with the quickness, but if they are to this is the time and place.  

#4 SUNLIT might not appear much "on paper" though the class edge is massive making the change to MCL company. The change comes second off with the stretch out in distance returning to the two turns, arguably the distance of their most competitive race back on 7/12 making a MOVE and GALLOP a race followed up with a flow-upgrade (VF early/late) from the far, far outside out on 8/2. 

In terms of class the change for #6 CHERVONARUTA, the projected second choice could be seen closer to a lateral move here and today's par in line with their races this season. In the 2025 series they have shown run and competitive races at times though like on 10/17 found TROUBLE and TRAFFIC not a one-off for this runner who seems to find adversity. 

In terms of the group returning from 10/16 common race and overall not much between the set to separate strongly. #1 MIA MITOLE one of the established maidens recording a B- in line with other rivals and could be encouraging for them moving up with that change in class and returning to their preferred surface distance. 

The early pace projects to be contentious (Fire) though not necessarily as fast (low SpeedRate) a scenario that could carry front running types #5 STERLING HEIGHTS and #6 MCGILL - still these runners (as favorites) could have to still deal with each other, others with a similar runstyle as well as today's 7f distance in order to win. 

That could open the door and assist tracking type runners: #1 LIAM'S AWESOME follows an every other pattern and one that has been exclusively running in extended sprint distance races and capable with racing luck, certainly an underneath include type. #2 HOLIDAY ROSE brings in similar form and perhaps even more upside as a 3yo filly. Their effort on 9/11 at N3 level projected to IMPROVE and subtle trips in the two starts since perhaps the rider change suggests intent today. They return from the 10/23 common race and BLANKET finish at the wire which included #8 NO VISOR one compromised with the TRAFFIC TROUBLE trip making a MOVE with the five finishing together at the wire. 

In terms of the "most likely" #3 STRIKE A NOTE and #8 OUTFORARIP are are the ones. STRIKE A NOTE recorded a B OptixGRADE under a similar par on 10/16 with TRAFFIC TROUBLE in the place finish, while OUTFORARIP finds the key change in class. 

Looking outside that pair: #2 FROGINAPOND comes in third off with a rider change Munger was aboard for the Play and show finishes to start off this season. They hold current form while slight upgrade making a WIDE MOVE on 10/16; #11 CRUMLIN BEACH also finds the change in class while wheeling right back from a legitimate EX - EXCUSE just one week ago. The quick turnaround comes into play and moving from one post extreme to another; #10 NOYZEE GIRL could also be upgraded wheeling right back from that 10/30 common race run with the WEATHER conditions (rain/wind) and WIDE trip up to a Very Fast early pace. They have struggled with the layoff lines though on their best stack up with the majority of this field. 

#1 CANDID CANDACE makes sense they fit on Class/Speed and form using a similar form cycle pattern leading to the 9/11 win and showing a rebound after the EX - EXCUSE on 10/4. #2 P. S. RISING STAR was not as competitive in the 10/25 common race though some upgrades given their trip (SLOG SHUFFLE WIDE MOVE X_FLOW NO_KEEP) to suggest a move forward here and with price compensation.