Handicapper Tips & Picks

#5 DON'T FLY STAND BY brings in for from the races this season with back class to fit on today's par from their juvenile season. They find a lateral change for this third start back off the layoff noting a WIDE trip under similar conditions while giving up recency on 8/15 and making a WIDE move on 10/25 while in against older rivals -- both efforts consistent speed figures and B- OptixGRADES. Their runstyle should fit today's race shape and holds experience at today's 6.5f extended sprint distance. 

#2 TAMMY BABY finds the belated class DROP a move that has been projected for them and key with the return to DMR. Also key to show early speed from an inside post something they has at times in the past and move every so slight one post in after the rail on 9/27 - a long with the higher par that day.

The drop from the 9/27 MSW event already moved up #6 FINAL TABLE LADY when they made the key class DROP and the right overall move recording a B- OptixGRADE at SA for the 10/11 MCL start.

#5 COTTA RIDE also takes the class DROP for their second start in what appears the right move based on the MSW debut visuals on 10/5. Despite the running line and finishing position they can be credited with an inside/SAVED CLOSE making a late move though FLOW aided. They must also improve from the gate with the SLOG and TROUBLE_S noted with today's move to the main track and shorter 5.5f distance.  

FTS#4 E NANG has shown some speed in the morning and physically on the sprint side. Off the series of works and today's placement they should be as race ready as they ever will be. 

The early pace should be contentious with five of the nine runners in the field sharing the E/EP runstyle - especially paired with today's 6.5f extended sprint distance. #7 BERLIN WALL has shown ability to stalk-and-pounce with a level of consistency in each race to date. That includes showing some class pairing up BTL efforts in their first two starts from earlier this year and returning from the 238-day layoff to take on winners with speed figure improvement in those two recent starts. 

#9 OUR BUCKY CHARM also can rate and finish with surface versatility shown as they make a return to the main track. Arguably TURF being their preferred surface though still has posited figures that fit on par and the outside post along with today's race shape suit as further positive complimentary changes. 

High hopes (and fair odds projected) for #2 LOW EXPECTATIONS in the finale. This is a sneaky horse based on the recent running lines to get overlooked by the public while reading between those lines to find a positive form cycle pattern with a peak projected here. They sit cleverly with today's starter allowance as prior to the $12.5k 10/19 start (a race wearing front wraps) they did not have the eligibility for this condition. 

#5 VERITAS AEQUITAS could be overlooked for the connections and from the recent running lines - even with TROUBLE in the EMD stakes race (while on a two week turnaround) back on 9/7. They hold a pair of competitive races on this circuit from earlier this year - graded at SA though landing a similar par and rider with K. Frey aboard for those starts and back in the saddle here. 

The pair of RB Hess runners #4 BIG JUANITO and #11 TRUSTY RUSTY fit today's race with their runstyle and on their best day though some factors to consider on value with BIG JUANITO making the class change and the outside post to overcome in the case of TRUSTY RUSTY. 

This is a specific MOC conditioned race where #7 NO CAPE fits based on finishing position while recording B-/C+ OptixGRADES in the three starts on the year. They starts with the CLOSE on debut (6th place outcome) followed by a NO_PUSH on 10/5 and recent BTL effort in the 10/26 start. 

#2 COMPTON should have no excuses today and as the expected favorite. They fit this condition with a slight edge and positive form cycle pattern second off the claim and back under similar conditions where they were picked up and from a WIDE trip B- place effort back on 9/12. 

Maybe #5 UNHEARD will sneak away on the board given the recent two finishing position. They can be upgraded from the 9/18 EX - EXCUSE & TROUBLE trip while also taking the step up in class following the win to N3 company. They returned to the N3 level on 10/12 noting  a TROUBLE_S and race shape with minimal change in running order to suggest they have more to show. They have been given 35-days into this race and subtle change in Plot position/shape especially when it comes to Surf/Dist as the only horse above the ParLine sitting as a Q2 Square. 

There is a lack of a "strong" favorite with similar type runners when it comes to Class/Speed and even runstyle Pace/Plot. Current Form also becomes an equalizer with many making the surface switch to Tapeta and unproven for the most part with that change. With that in mind a longshot case for #4 RATINGS UPGRADE given recent trips and on their best fit with today's par/group. Following their maiden win back on 8/22 they held their own taking on winners on 9/14 making a solid CLOSE and GALLOP+. They returned in a less than ideal spot on 9/27 not only with the quick 13-day turnaround but also taking on open company. They returned to F&M on 10/25 making a X_FLOW MOVE and GALLOP+ showing run despite the outcome. 

Still questionable for today's route/two turn distance for #1 PROMISING as they look to stretch out here. In terms of Speed and Class she fits as a contender with potentially edges looking to carry the added ground, though still has that stamina hurdle to consider especially as the projected post time favorite. 

#2 PRINCESS ANASTASIA is interesting in here with upside coming back from the layoff. Going back to last season with the pair of starts she showed run with the WIDE trip on debut and closed out 2024 with a BTL TROUBLE+ and valid EX-EXCUSE on 12/7. She returned this year improving as a 4yo on speed figures and given another two turn type with the 7/12 race being the first - also a first against winners and with a subtle trip along with the layoff that followed.