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Mon November 24th, 2025 |
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Emily's Analysis
Hawthorne Race 3
#3 CYPRESS MOON should be sitting on a peak effort with the
changes in class/distance while given a flow upgrade from the 10/13 SA start.
They should be showing early speed right from the jump and while that and the
inside being an asset the early pace could still prove honest (55 SpeedRate)
and have that potential factor to consider.
#7 READY JET GO would benefit from that high SpeedRate with
their runstyle. They were upgraded under similar conditions/course/distance
back on 8/23 (similar dynamic projected today) and less than ideal TACTIC-
still putting in a strong CLOSE with the show outcome at 38-1.
Hawthorne Race 5
#5 CROSSANNA showed ability from their Hawthorne BTL debut
and continued through the dominant B+ MSW win over the Carey Prairie turf last
August. She has shown progression on speed figures while handling the step up
on circuit out in California and finding confidence picking up the win last
month on the dirt. With the distance and surface switch in play she could be
overlooked and at the least present fair odds while holding the effort from
June over the course and distance with the higher par, B- OptixGRADE and speed
figure recorded that day - a number on the higher end of today's
par.
Rival and potential favorite #7 UPCHARGE makes sense and
recording a B with the place finish at this level in the 10/10 common race. She
should find a favorable trip with today's race shape tracking Q1/Q3 runners
looking for first run in a similar Plot position/shape to CROSSANNA.
#1 MISS MEAGHER will get another look at this level and from
the 10/10 start when she WASTED energy prerace and paired with the WIDE trip
factors to impact effort/outcome on the day.

