Handicapper Tips & Picks

10-1? we #6 WILL TAKE IT returning to CD and the one turn mile distance where they have consistent form, figures and class. That includes current form for this third start off the layoff, adversity at the GATE losing their footing (TROUBLE_S) at the break of the Ack Ack (G3) and making a MOVE in race shape with the pacesetters controlling throughout to finish 1-2. The connections were ambitious running in the BC Dirt Mile though again compromised with the race flow and track showing run making a WIDE MOVE despite the rail draw along with the running line and finishing position. 

#6 TOGA D'ORO did not appear intent making their layoff return along with the barn change over the KEE turf last month. Dismissed on the board (COLD) and with the ride, chasing WIDE NO_PUSH on the day to suggest they were "given" the race. There was a steady series of CD works leading up to that 10/25 race and coming directly out of the KEE event back to training at CD and into this higher level allowance second off and should hold higher odds again -- and in clearly in contrast to stablemate #3 BARB coming off a new top figure with the big step up in class first in against winners. 

#6 CALL ME SIR is on the quick turnaround though given the trip last week (11/23) did not have a chance to run with the TACTIC NO_PUSH making a CLOSE _X_FLOW and projecting to IMPROVE also returns with a rider change. #4 LEFT HAND MAN will get another look back on the TURF while in this second start off the freshening. The could have needed the race giving up 56-days into the 11/8 start and another sign with the front wraps added, a change that should be looked for today to further intent. 

#3 CARDIFF CRACK sits a touch below though brings in current form and a favorable runstyle for today's race with the Fire Contention and higher SpeedRate. 

#3 CARO BUONO holds proven graded stakes form on this circuit keying off the B OptixGRADE recorded back in the DMR Juv Turf (G3) over the summer. Some regression could have set in wheeling back in less than 30-days for the even C+ OptixGRADE in the Zuma Beach (G3) that followed. They can be upgraded exiting the BC undercard stakes, a $200k event, with the trip nothing TROUBLE while making a MOVE X_FLOW and continued to run on GALLOP+ after the wire. Their stablemate #4 UNRIVALED TIME will take a big step up both taking on winners for the first time and open company though credited with a B+ dominant effort in against CA-bred juvenile MSW company last month and showed ability, B- on debut with subtle trip. 

#5 IRISEACH recorded the highest last out speed figure with their maiden win on 10/30 and some confidence taking this rise to graded stakes company for the first against winners. This marks the third start of the cycle upgraded from the local 10/12 debut making a CLOSE NO_PUSH, a race that appeared to set them up ideally on the mile stretch out. 

In terms of #7 HEY NAY NAY a quality type to fit in this group on class and speed figures though again will be tested for stamina. They were able to overcome with the DMR Juv Turf (G3) win as the BOS on the day though had a Q1 Square position paired with the Snowflake Contention and shifts to the Sun here as well as the Circle following the BC Juv Turf (G1) in their recent start - though to be fair a flow upgrade given the WIDE DUEL from the outside post in a Very Fast early pace. 

#2 BRIGANTE finished second to HAY NAY NAY When the two debuted back in June sprinting at SA. BRIGANTE since has shown progression and interest in each race including the DMR Futurity (G1) when likely entered to fill the race as well as the Speakeasy noting the trip adversity, while still tested on class overall. 

The ML projects #8 AG BULLET to go off favored and while she brings in consistent figures and current graded stakes form the distance shift to a mile is something to consider in terms of value and likely the publicly will see that similarly and land elsewhere as the post time favorite. 

In terms of pace advantage for AG BULLET she does not appear "lone" with #10 IN OUR TIME in this field holding both sprint and route speed. Their outside draw in the field of ten likely forces their hand to send from the jump and should keep the pace honest along with #5 SPICYBUG inside that pair. 

#9 SEGESTA could easily be favored given the connections, proven at the mile distance and recent finishing position. That includes the First Lady (G1) a common race and place finish, noting a BLANKET finish with the TROUBLE- and PLODDY while lacking an edge from a pace standpoint when looking at the Plot to further assess today as an underlay.

Keying off that common race, the First Lady (G1) upgrades and value to both #6 OZARA and #7 HEREDIA in this race as contenders.

OZARA showed ability going back to the 2023 Natalma (G1) event with quality runners (She Feels Pretty, Simply In Front) and has continued to progress since that juvenile season with maturity. OZARA went off shorter odds of the First Lady (G1) trio returning here and while that role was an underlay on the day, that shifts here upgraded from the trip nothing the TROUBLE_S and NO_PUSH unable to show their best on the day.

HEREDIA recorded the same B- OptixGRADE as SEGESTA despite the shift in outcome, HEREDIA finishing 6th though still part of that BLANKET finish at the wire and with significant adversity in running following the TROUBLE_S forced to make an X_WIDE MOVE. 

#4 HOPE ROAD would be no surprise to win this race though lacks value and with leaning vulnerable factors. As far as form cycle this seasoned 4yo filly was reluctant to load in the BC FM Sprint (G1) just a few weeks ago, a change from prior starts. The return to a mile also has some questions; HOPE ROAD has run competitive races and at the route distance those races were not their strongest numbers and found a different dynamic and timing in those 2024 G3 events. The TLDR, she will require a top effort to win this race with opportunities to get creative with alternatives. 

#3 SIMPLY JOKING might not be the most creative alternative though logical. She could be given some excuse for their return race last month in the Raven Run (G2) at KEE. The trip was compromised from the break, breaking in making contact (TROUBLE_S) then a RUSH while WIDE and between horses with further in running TROUBLE and a NO_PUSH late. A rider change was project and made while finding a softer par and out of that race well enough to ship back to SA where she had been training forwardly working right along and no pause to enter in this graded stakes event. 

#2 COOLCOLLECTED requires some price compensation (projected as much from the ML) giving up recency returning from the 147-day layoff late in the season. The time off was not the plan bringing them back around in May improving with each start and something amiss in the 7/6 race noting the trip visuals with the TROUBLE_S WIDE and NO_PUSH with the layoff following. They bring in steady works and hold class and figures to fit on par giving them a value contender look.