Handicapper Tips & Picks

While recognizing the presence of #5 MISS CALL in this spot, #11 N Z HOLLY presents value as an alternative contender. She is suite to today's class and holding upside in this second start of the cycle while finding a lower par and STRETCH from the 6f sprint at OP on 2/22.  #3 ALTA AVENUE fits with fig in range though is taking a step up in class something looking to compensate with the extended sprint distance experience and foundation. 

#4 EDEY is eligible for this race with the two MSW TP events both auction restriction races. They have shown a level of consistency which should transfer here while still could require another move forward for the win, something they have yet to do. 

Over the years B. Mott has the 1/26 turf sprint win though in terms of the runners perhaps more live than that stat appears 19% B OptixGRADE (winning race for the level) and 61% including EX/B- OptixGRADE. #8 SPICED UP being one of the in this field with established turf sprint form with speed figures on par and class edge with the Mahoney (G3) win last summer. 

WEAK FAVORITE: #7 REMEMBER MAMBA coming into this spot lacks a class, pace and speed figure advantage to justify them at shorter odds and even as the horse to beat. While they broke their maiden at KEE last October that race with only two runners since won, both in MCL company. The FG Jan allowance with a much lower par than today's race and inferior company to today's group. A lightly raced type for top connections can step up and improve, though in that projection price compensation is warranted and that does not appear to be the case today. 

The early pace projects to be honest (Sun/69) something which could become a hurdle for projected favorite #1 JOINT VENTURE otherwise a logical type. 

Taking the theory the race setting up for stalking trips: #7 DRUIDIC brings in current form/figures/class on par for this race along with SA main track efforts competitive as they make the surface switch. #2 MIGHT KAI taking a technical step up in class following the "win" (B-) on 3/1, though is closer to a lateral par. Their runstyle should suit today's race shape and should hold form for the new connections off the claim and positive rider assignment with K. Kimura. 

#3 DHITJARI wheels back for their second start of the meet and subtle trip in the 2/27 local debut. Part of the trip due to rider TACTIC- and notable change with M. Smith aboard, a rider not often called up for this outfit though has been effective 35% ITM. 

Ayuso shifting to #7 AMERICAN HOPE making their local debut and new connections. They are cutting back in distance significantly and while SHORTER projected from their race last June (11f) this distance change not impossible though deeper closer type. 

The distance change also notable for the returning #2 WAR AT SEA, last seen in October 2024 with a BTL effort in the Lure Stakes. One could argue the "best" horse with significant Class ABOVE+ edge looking for that to compensate for the time away and for today's distance.