Handicapper Tips & Picks

A lot of attention should land on #3 DIAMONDS JOY in the opener as she brings in tactical speed, current form and a live E. Rodriguez barn to start off opening week. While all of that makes sense (and similar for #2 APRIL’S GEM) the shorter number is less exciting to get things going which outside the box gives a look to #4 TIME BREAK.

TIME BREAK is returning from the 157-day break into this race, though this type of layoff is something trainer M. Quinonez has had success with at Hawthorne in the past – in a 32 horse sample size since 2022, the barn has six wins (18.75%, 1 win with today’s rider F. Reyes) and another 12 finishing place/show overall 18.75% win, 56% ITM and positive $2.89 ROI. 

#2 ICEBERG SLIM returns for a second start upgraded from their debut on 3/22 at the FG, a significant flow upgrade (X_FLOW) making a RUSH into a Fast early pace and in hand (NO_PUSH) as the race shape slowing late. The Class (ABOVE) gives ICEBERG SLIM the edge over the other two rivals with racing experience both #4 WAGON POWER and #5 DYNO WAR returning from levels and rising from the MCL events last year.

In addition to ICEBERG SLIM, L. Rivelli will be represented by FTS #1 BATTLE WING, the lone filly in this group, who had been training last summer at Hawthorne and coming back to work in mid-March at the FG and most recent local spin on 3/30 just the three 3f published works showing on paper in 2026.

T. Tracy also with a pair and FTS #3 STROLLINWITHASHLEE with a steady series of works coming back in 2026 with conditioning from the series and two works at Hawthorne before the most recent at PRM, which figures as an IA-bred. 

Two barns off to solid starts this season representing 80% of the field starts the handicapping process along with pace #2 ALL ABOUT TONITE brings in early speed, especially with J. Felix aboard while giving up recency from the 172 day layoff; and a complimentary runstyle to stablemate #3 TWIRLING ROSES looking to explode on the scene late – Solid Q4 Square paired with the Fire Contention and honest 45 SpeedRate.

While ALL ABOUT TONITE could look to take them as far as they can on the lead; the A. Hernandez pair of #1 RACARINO and #4 JOE THE TAILOR hold tactical speed to keep them from clearing “lone” and the trip for both RACARINO and JOE THE TAILOR could be key with the first run on TWIRLING ROSES.

#5 HILARIOUS AFFAIR (B. Vanden Berg) coming in from the TP meet and while number wise fits and similar in terms of current form fits recording a B OptixGRADE making a CLOSE to finish in a BLANKET at the wire on 3/20. The biggest unknown is the surface returning to conventional dirt for only the second time in their career, the first being their debut, a MSW 6f at CD in June 2021. 

#1 CODE RUNNER holds a strong edge when it comes to Class and Speed (ABOVE) for this level and even their runstyle Q2/Q4 Square suited ABOVE+ for today’s race shape. Even as logical on those fronts, they can bring the drama with the off-pace late run and till something to consider from a value standpoint, if offered at shorter odds.

#4 SIXWILLBERICH appears live returning from the layoff and belated second start from the claim. They hold a solid local record with nearly each start at today’s surface/distance recording a speed figures fast enough to win given today’s par. Along with requiring a top effort, trip will be key and likely looking to sit behind projected inside pacesetter #2 PAYNT BY LETTERS, as well as #5 AFRICAN WARRIOR As they return out and look to sent from the outside on a 5-day turnaround.

It should be noted with #3 HIGHLY PERFECT returning from a layoff and noted stat from Race 1 with M. Quinonez runners off layoffs at Hawthorne, however in this case the two turns adjusts the sample outcome without a win just three (27%) finishing in the money, thirteen race sample size. 

#2 COUNT THE GREEN abandoned a spot on opening day to debut here where they can run protected while in statebred company. he connections making their debut. The placement suggests a positive while in competent hands – factors which look to be no secret to the public projecting a heavy favorite.

It could also be projected based on history for COUNT THE GREEN to come out with early speed something of a tactical advantage over their more season rivals #4 LORD BLOCK and #5 GOOD YEGG (one that can run to his looks to look prerace for visuals to upgrade/downgrade) returning in this spot as older runners.

Gate issues has been noted for #1 CIAO TOMMASO at the same time they find a change in class and par off the bench once again while racing first time in at the statebred level and speed figures consistent to respect in this race.

#2 LESLIE’S LEGACY also on debut in this spot as she races as the lone filly in this field and noted with the older open company of today’s race conditions. She was training steadily at Hawthorne last summer and clear intent to run locally, while coming back around in 2026 just showing the two published drills with spacing between each move. 

#2 MAMBA OUT could present a strong tactical advantage (Q1 Square) in this field tough to ignore when looking at pace. She will return to Hawthorne and with the 35-day freshening, some time off could have been required following the 2025 campaign followed up with three solid wins during the recent FG meeting. MAMBA  OUT  has battled with #4 DIXIE PENNY last season the two rivals with each other finishing 1-2 in those claiming starts and with that class noted, the slightly higher par here.

#5 WAMPUS KITTEN has yet to take that big step forward number wise and a touch soft on that front, though to compensate her runstyle paired with the outside post and complexion of this field as well as some current form and local works gives her a look.

#3 ORNERY ANGEL could present intent for the connections as noted with the layoff angle coming back in this spot. She has additional hurdles given today’s class level while needing to run back to a top effort to win. With this race early in the meet and if she catches a group, a race away from their best that could create the perfect longshot/upset storm.

One of those being #1 DESERT GLOW with the move to the conventional dirt for paired with the shorter 5.5f distance creates some unknowns and what could be reasonably handicapped as a “prep” with turf, those grass races just weeks away. 

A value opportunity in the finale with #4 SHE STOPPED SHORT coming back to Hawthorne where she has had success, recorded her most competitive numbers and looking through those races from prior seasons often doing so at a higher par/class than what she takes on here. Some intent looks to follow not only with the return to Hawthorne but also in the upswing of an “every other” form cycle pattern, recency and back around one-turn.

SHE STOPPED SHORT with those factors on her side will still require the right trip, something not out of the question as the early pace should be honest with both #3 SKY RAVEN and #5 FOXY ZORRA bringing in tactical speed (Q1) to contest at the first call. In addition, #1 ANNIE’S HOPE and #2 TWO TIMER hold tactical speed in their own right though can often break slow/SLOG while lacking recency returning from layoffs to consider as well.