Handicapper Tips & Picks

#2 LA REYNITA holds the class edge and perhaps even the pace edge of the E. Rodriguez pair in the opener. Arguably, LA REYNITA prefers turf as their ideal surface, though capable on the main track under the right conditions. She showed that last season breaking her maiden over this course and distance with a front end score back in August and has continued to hold her form following with speed figures on par for this race.  

#3 KEEN GAL will be tested with the rise in class taking on winners for the first time. She wheels right back following the maiden score opening day, a race which should add confidence and fitness going forward and translate as quickly as back in this spot.

Coming back in 2026, there is plenty of upside for #4 CODE OF CONDUCT though could be one who benefits from a start off the layoff – similar to last year a solid effort on debut though improved number wise with racing. #1 PEACOCK ROAD makes a lateral translation in terms of class to this circuit. She has shown surface versatility, however their higher recorded speed figures, the numbers on par, recorded on turf/synth thus far. 

#3 EUCLID AVENUE wheels right back for this race and stretching out at the same time could hold a pace advantage on the front end. This start marks the second of the layoff and current form cycle to suggest intent and ability to return to a competitive effort.

The tactical and fitness advantage EUCLID AVENUE brings in over #1 ELECTRIC CHARGE could be the difference maker in this case. While ELECTRIC CHARGE overall fits as an individual, they must come with that top effort fresh, something they have struggled with in prior layoff returns. #2 CONTRABANDISTA also fiving up recency returning from the layoff and something to consider in terms of value overall. The break from October 2025 into today’s race is warranted following a long campaign – one to get a look at in the paddock.

#4 REGIMENTAL should benefit from the conditioning wheeling back in this spot. While they have the fitness on their side and trending hot barn, their off-the-pace runstyle could still be up against it in today’s race shape. 

A competitive race and tricky one with the surface/distance a factor in handicapping this group. That includes separating the L. Rivelli pair, where #2 SMOKED could present the edge on the main track whereas #3 SPINNING GLORY had the lone main track Hawthorne start from last April (an effort which fits, to be fair) though before and after has been campaigned exclusively on the turf/synth to suggest some alternative surface intent.

While both L. Rivelli runners present tactical speed, SMOKED could present the controlling speed in this case and gate-to-wire threat.

#4 BELLA CRUELLA also makes the surface switch and has some tactical speed in her own right. She will be tested for that to not only translate to the dirt, but also out of the gate as she can often break a step slog. #5 LIT MISS HAT TRICK also with some tactical speed and races on her best day to respect as a contender. Returning from the layoff and first start of the season, she has that hurdle and one to look for additional clues from the paddock visuals and tote board activity.

#1 AL MUSTANEERA also has shown some gate issues in the two starts though made up for it though ability and clear placement by the connections. That looks to carry here as she takes on winners, racing on this circuit while remaining protected. Distance wise the 5.5 looked on the shorter side for her visually from the debut at BTP however still recorded a B OptixGRADE and following the time away returned in March at the 5.5f distance with the B+ MSW score at MVR. 

#5 D’ARGONAUT wheels back with some upside in this second start of the season. It was reasonable to suggest the opening day start was a prep given the higher MCL level then where she was placed last season and with stablemate and eventual winner Keen Gal in the field, more fancied on the two. This should be the time and place for D’ARGONAUT on the quick turnaround conditioning and class drop, just requires not only a return to a top effort but also trip with the 5f distance of the race. The timing and placement for D’ARGONAUT, a contrast to stablemate #1 ATRAXA coming off the 178-day layoff.

The distance change also noted for #2 I’M HUNGOVER one who outside of her 5f debut sprinting on the turf last June, has been exclusively racing at the route distance and makes that significant cut back here with the recency and class edge looking to carry, noting many and consistent speed figures on par. The distance is a subtle change for #4 TOUR DE’ PORT returning from the layoff while noting she is at the right level for her abilities.

A lot of attention will likely land on #3 NIGHT ROSE for the connections, capable connections worthy of respect and to get the job done though in terms of published works this is not a typical series of drills and something to factor with projected odds – additional clues in the paddock should be key to further upgrade/downgrade them as the lone FTS in the group. 

#1 BONIFIED CRAZY drops to the lowest level of their career, a change which should be welcome and allow their best chance to compete. Class and the long layoff which followed the two juvenile starts was notable coming back this season at the FG. They had a tough task first time around two turns coming back from the 424-day layoff in February and did not appear to NO_HANDLE the off track and poor WEATHER conditions on 3/8.

In terms of speed figures, both #3 STORMY ATTACK and #5 STORM BACK have the highest recorded in this field, however those numbers were posted on the turf, and their main track numbers lack the same edge. #4 GRAY MIKE has the most consistent numbers and perhaps this spot allows their best chance to break through with that belated maiden score though still has the 0-for-29 career record, including races under similar conditions falling short without excuse of a winning effort.

#2 KUZ I CAN MAN returns from the layoff and for the new connections and perhaps the time to show up as a “new horse” all around. That is still a lot of guess work based on the series of races to date including a pattern of gate/SLOG issues which going the shorter 5f distance can be tougher to overcome and showing just the long return work on April 12^th to get race ready. 

#5 TIZ CHINA figures the right horse as the favorite and one to beat. She returns to Hawthorne and shorter sprint distance where she ad competitive last season at a higher condition, noting the drop coming back around in claiming company. In terms of current form, she was coming back with the allowance win in the MVR mud back in January, a top (REGRESS) effort on the day and likely that quick (less than 30 day return)  return playing a factor in the outcome of the 2/12 TP start. TIZ CHINA draws well for today’s race shape outside with tactical speed to allow J. Loveberry options to work a winning trip.

#2 FONDRE also shows up here and from the recent TP meet holding her own in open claiming company. Races with a higher par than today’s event. Today’s par even lower than her competitive races from last summer running over conventional dirt on the main track at MNR/BTP those efforts fitting here in terms of class and speed to compete.

In terms of the D. Dizeo pair returning from layoffs, giving the edge to #3 MARY MOONGLOW over #1 SHARP ATTACK with the post position shift for the two as well as keying off the races to date at Hawthorne with MARY MOONGLOW running competitively under slightly higher conditions on the main track.

#4 BOYCE’S BANDITA comes in a little light overall as a contender though a good spot to return where she can get a start and nearly race protected as an IL-bred opting for the higher $20k tag in this spot. 

In the finale, taking a stab while making a longshot case for #6 LAVENDER EARL. They have fired off the layoff in the past and has been competitive under similar conditions to today’s race. Most of their career has been at the longer distances, while also a higher level of competition, something noted with the overall race record. The connections could have been running at the higher level (and higher odds) to pick up checks and taking the class drop late in the 2025 season while looking for the first win since spring 2022.

#2 VIA DEL CORSO should draw a fair share of public attention given the connections and closing out the Hawthorne season with a near miss together at the wire with #3 OFF TO THE RACES – a FLOW aided trip. VIA DEL CORSO raced that day (10/30) as the only 3yo in against older, holding their own then and should similarly coming back in the first start as a 4yo.

Age with time off should be factored with #4 LATIN CASINO one with plenty of races in their career to fit as a contender. Their most recent win was off the layoff returning las September, however had a pace advantage (Plot),HOT barn in addition to a slightly lower race par/purse that day than how this race comes together.

#5 JET FLIGHT could require a race while returning from the layoff and in at today’s shorter 5.5f distance. Outside of those factors, they fit on class and speed and know how to win races with one of the most consistent pairing of horse and rider with L. Colon back aboard.