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Sat May 2nd, 2026 |
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Jim's Picks
Churchill Downs Race 11
Post Time 7:39 PM CST
He's not as talented as others but he may get the trip as 1-CORRUPTION looks to be the lone speed in here to me. From the fence he has no option but to go. He posted a career best figure at this distance, over this course, last May. No reason he can't settle things down on the front early and try to kick away late. 4-PROGRAM TRADING puts the blinkers on as he looks for his first victory since 2024. He has run well in both starts this year and should be able to rate close. I just worry that he won't provide much value in here. 6-RHETORICAL ran well in his first start of the year. He has the ability to close late. My only concern is he is listed as the favorite in a spot where he has never run the distance.
Churchill Downs Race 12 - PLAY OF THE DAY
Post Time 8:57 PM CST
An absolutely brutal post draw for morning line favorite Renegade as he is on the fence at 4-1. If he wins it will be an awesome effort, but in a race like this there is no upside to bet a horse from that position with that post draw. I think the Derby is wide open. I have also seen differing opinions, but I don't think there is a ton of early pace in this year's race. For me, I'll go on top to the lightly raced 12-CHIEF WALLABEE as Bill Mott looks for another Derby triumph. Chief Wallabee has done nothing wrong in any of his starts. He was a winner while sprinting on debut. He just missed by a neck in the short stretch Fountain of Youth. He rated closer in the Florida Derby and battled while wide. He adds blinkers for this race, a move that Mott wins with 21% of the time for a positive ROI and draws favorably. Look for him to stalk early and hang around late. The is absolutely zero chance the 4-LITMUS TEST goes off at 50-1. Bob Baffert with a horse who was considered one of the best of the class at the end of his 2yo season in a race where only five other horses have run a Beyer better than his career best of 96. No shot, no way, no how does this horse sniff 50-1. He puts the blinkers back on, has a draw where he will be force to show some speed, and I think he's the one of the front end potentially when the field turns into the stretch. He's the value of the race. 7-DANON BOURBON could be worth a sneaky look in this race. The dirt program in Japan has gotten so much better of the last five years and this one has been sharp in all three starts. His stalking style puts him in contention early and I don't think he will be given the respect at the windows that he likely deserves. 6-COMMANDMENT has been a model of consistency and is the horse that I expect will go off as the actual favorite in the Derby. He just knows how to win. The only real knock is the musical jockeys as Prat chose Emerging Market and Ortiz chose Renegade. I think both will be regretful choices in the end.
The way I would wager this race, bet both 12-Chief Wallabee and 4-Litmus Test across the board.
Box 4,6,7,12 in Exacta and Trifecta.