Handicapper Tips & Picks

4-MOONRISE DRIVE certainly seems like the one to beat. His last race was awful but it took place on synthetic. He was far more competitive here last year while facing better rivals. He’s had three good workouts since his last start. Looks tough. The two Manny Perez owned/trained runners, 1-WOLF HUNTER and 5-GAME SANTA could vie for the best of the rest. Both are making their second starts of the meet, both had only one workout prior to that last race, and both are better going two turns instead of sprinting. 

5-BIG D isn’t exactly a big closer but he might be the one most capable of running down the early speed. He was claimed from his first start of the meet and moves up in class for this but the pace of the race should set things up for his late move. 1-HE GONE takes a much-needed drop in class. Usual speedster hasn’t shown the same early acceleration as he did prior to breaking his maiden and he’ll have to hold off the rest of the speed but, at this level, he might put them all away. 2-GO JACK GO and 3-REGAINED POWER are likely to join top choice on the front end and a three-way speed duel could compromise all their chances.

2-VISIONISTA has been meeting Louisiana breds and takes on open company today but her second-place finish in her last start suggests she’ll be more than capable of beating this bunch. Plus, her barn has been on fire with six wins from their first 19 starts along with another eight finishes in the money. On the other hand, she won only three of 34 races so my enthusiasm about her chances in tempered somewhat. 6-CAME UP ROSES had some minor traffic issues in her first start of the meet which might have compromised her chances. She owns decent tactical speed. Could improve. 5-SHE BE SHEEHAN likely goes for the lead. She no longer possesses the brilliant early speed she had early in her career but she could still be the quickest of these. 3-LUCY’S LOOKIN LEFT should show some late run. She’s had three decent drills preparing for her 2026 debut. Figures.

3-SAWYER FOX has never been in this easy. Three bullet drills at Churchill are a little strange but he does look like the only real speed in the race. Holding the lead for the entire distance is the challenge but it will likely be accomplished against low-level Illinois breds. 7-WAYLLEN RICHARD hasn’t sprinted since his career debut but he was claimed from last, from the same connections as top choice, out of a good second-place finish. His new barn wins with about 35% of their first-time claims. He will be coming on late. 5-RUMBLING is a threat. He’s probably not as quick as top choice but he generally stayed competitive throughout in his races last year. If top pick does run out of gas, expect this gelding make the first move to pass him.

I hesitate to pick 5-WE MISS ARLINGTON despite him winning two of his four races this year. But he was crushed in the other two. He’s always been good here and always good at the distance. But I still have reservations. 3-TWIRLING ROSES has been claimed from his last three. He’s another that has had a high degree of success at the distance and on this track. Just not entirely sure he belongs at this level. 1-STRANGE ARRANGE and 4-RACARINO both won their first starts of the meet and it wouldn’t be a big surprise if one of them won right back. 2-DOUBLE THUNDER has back class but hasn’t done much lately.

This race is packed with early speed. 2-ICEBERG SLIM was an impressive winner in his local debut but he jumped to a huge lead quickly and was never tested. That might not happen today. Still, he does appear to be the quickest and the short distance of this race could work in his favor. 1-GOOD TO BE A PRINCE might not be as quick as top choice but he might be quicker than the rest. None in here appear likely to make much of a late move. He could be chasing top pick, racing in second all the way around. 5-HANDSOME HERB has been running competitively in Arkansas. He seems more versatile than most in here. Could get into the hunt late in the stretch.

4-BOLDISH raced mostly in routes and makes his first start since October but his trainer does very well with layoff runners and this gelding won his first start of 2025 coming off a similar layoff. 2-BREAKING NEWS often does well at Hawthorne. He’s had limited drills coming into his first race of the year but this 10-year-old probably knows how to get himself ready. 1-WHISKEYINATEACUP is often in the money. Makes his first start for a “new” trainer. Not sure about the quality of his previous competition but this race did not come up very tough. 

1-PLUME, a $525k purchase, makes her career debut. She has a long series of workouts for a barn that wins with about 26% of their first-time starters. None of those drills have been impressive but think they might be bringing her around carefully. Could be a good one. 3-O’HARA AT DAWN is another first timer working like she’s ready. Her barn doesn’t sport a high percentage of first-out winners but this one does look ready. 6-FUN ON THE BAYOU finished far back in both starts at Fair Grounds but she’s had four drills since her last race; three of them were bullets and the other was the second fastest of the day. Deserves another chance.