Handicapper Tips & Picks

Starting out with a competitive race all around with live barns and two barns with a pair;  and that does not include ML favorite #4 ESCOVEDO one who lacks the recency of the others in this field to look outside of them for a top selection.

Trainer B. Cook brings back a pair first off the claim and from the 4/19 common race. The place finisher #2 SPIRIT TO INSPIRE finishing second and in front of now stablemate #3 BALLYBAY BEAUTY though the pair both earning B- OptixGRADES. They both return with a look in a spot where they can compete and different runstyles to work out a trip in today’s race shape.

#1 GREAT OWL has the benefit of established form and figures over second time starting stablemate #5 NIGHT ROSE wheeling right back from the debut maiden score. In terms of GREAT OWL she return from the 4/19 common race and should rebound here. Her form cycle pattern presents a move forward off the number and outcome last month and back to a competitive effort here. 

#1 ROCKFEST makes a belated return to the Hawthorne entries (along with O. Hernandez aboard, the rider named when they scratched 11/2) and upgraded from the route races to the SHORTER sprint here. He brings in conditioning and form out of tough MSW starts at Oaklawn. Going back to Oaklawn ROCKFEST was working in company (3/21 with debuting stablemate here #6 HE HAS GAME the two heads up and looks the part of a turf runner.

#8 CHIEF MORTER  makes a belated second start and noted from the after scratches three horse 7/20 debut finishing third (photo for place) as a heavy favorite on the day to their stablemate, Chi Town Prince. CHIEF MORTER comes in with some flashy published works, the 45.2 gate bullet on 5/3 following a lack of published works throughout April. #4 KING OF SHEBA debuts with a longer series of drills and a bullet move from the gate in their most recent 4/22 work as well, should not be a case of lacking fitness on this one.

#7 THIS BEAU KNOWS debuted at Hawthorne over the turf last August and has the benefit of the starts this year. To their credit, they moved forward in the two sophomore starts that 10-point improvement pairing up figures at Tampa; pairing figures in this case could suggest there is not as much of a move forward in that department.

That upside and forward projection is there for #5 LIEUTENANT CHARM as they make their sophomore debut in this spot. The debut was nothing for than a prep in September and vast improvement wheeling back for the 10/16 second start compromised with in running TROUBLE. 

#5 WAMPUS KITTEN presented upside leading into the 4/23 win and while needing to show it on the track, she did just that. Now that she proved, she can run that “fast” race and compete at this level, she will be tested to show she can repeat – and now repeat at a shorter number.

The value looks to shift in this case and away from 4/23 wagering favorite #5 MAMBA OUT returning here. Going into the 4/23 race there were some questions with current form and presence in the paddock especially at a shorter number – factors that could change here to move back to a playable category.

Place finisher #2 DIXIE PENNY also returns here doing her best for the minor on the day and could see a similar outcome while looking towards others for the top spot.

In terms of early speed, #6 LITTLE SASS has that going for her and draw outside some of the other projected front runners in this field. She showed progression and a solid level of consistency last season and since entering in the M. Quinonez barn. 

Competitive higher level allowance and that carries in terms of race shape and the two barns with two runners, though all deserving of a mention with a look to compete:

DiVito brings back the pair from Oaklawn Park second off returning to Hawthorne where both horses have been competitive. The elder #5 ELI’S PROMISE holding the higher figures, naturally; those efforts fit here and along with current fitness and reuniting with O. Hernandez, familiar rider.

#4 BABY BOAT comes in lightly raced and plenty  of upside all around. That upside carries for this second start back off the layoff and from the 4/18 return breaking SLOG and visuals to suggest they needed the race (PREP) not quite race ready off the bench and could be assessed as a positive in this case wheeling right back less than three weeks for this start. His late kick can be seen on OptixPLOT (Q4 Square) and should have pace to chase, and target given the Sun Contention and higher 55 SpeedRate.

The race shape and circuit switch should also assist #6 HEART N SOUL from the Oaklawn season holding their form all around, just in some very contentious allowance races – form should translate here to see them more competitive.

Both of the T. Tracy runners bring in early speed to take part in that Contention/SpeedRate. In terms of the pair #3 CAN DO ANDREW holds the edge in recency, however to this point they have yet show they can bring their “A” race outside of PRM. #2 CALL ME Q has been effective outside of PRM though has another hurdle giving up recency missing nearly the entire 2025 season and first start back in 482-days today.

#1 SMOKEN BOY also with a recency edge, while finding a softer race par ($104k purse)  this afternoon compared to the two March events at Turfway. Coming back this season, it appears the connections want to remain sprinting, one turn, a change from the route race campaign in 2025. 

Looking at this race from a race shape standpoint, the early pace should be honest (Fire/20 SpeedRate) to set up runners from off the pace. That includes ML favorite #5 SILVER QUARTERS, at the same time value presents on others with a similar runstyle and finishing ability.

#2 CRAFTY KING returns to the turf and subtle trips at Turf Paradise on the grass while also holding fitness from the route race coming off the bench on 4/19 to signal intent here. They are placed where they can compete and a timing which should have them competitive as well. #4 RIVER REDEMPTION finds themselves in a similar Q4 Square position for today’s race shape. They are back under L. Colon, a rider with success aboard though in this case does give up recency here.

#7 SIR LIAM lacks a pace advantage looking at the OptixPLOT for this race though can be upgraded with OptixNOTES returning to the TURF that projection from back in March at the Fair Grounds and matches up with prior starts on the turf – races which fit here to compete. Their Plot position and shape sits similar to #8 LAMPLIGHTER JACK likely shorter of the two though current form returning to the Hawthorne turf course where they picked up their most recent win – a PERFECT trip last July in higher N2 $40k allowance company. 

#6 RISKY BOY looks set up for a peak effort in this race. Coming back from the layoff 12-days at FP they were dismissed by the public from a 5-1 ML, WARM and visually did not appear race ready off the layoff, a PREP they should move forward from here.

Similar intent second-off should follow #4 ALL AROUT TONITE wheeling back from the 4/23 start. They made a positive PRERACE+ appearance down in the paddock though in running less “intent” making a RUSH inside/SAVED before losing ground and passively handled while their more fancied stablemate, Twirling Roses, finished second.

Looking at the Plot, the early pace should be honest as it sits with the “Fire” Contention and 23 SpeedRate and could be even “hotter” if #1 OFF TO THE RACES currently sitting as a Q4 Squares shows more early speed today as they are drawn on the rail, picking up J. Felix in this second off start from a subtle 4/26 trip. It is not always recommended to project a change in runstyle for trip, though in this case makes sense for a horse showing progressive form from the races this season and in their past races showing effective and competitive early speed.

Keeping with the Plot, #3 FINDAWAY should find their way to a favorable tracking trip and runstyle to fit today’s race shape. With that said, they could be a race out (and a half furlong short) of preferred conditions coming in off the layoff – though still enough to make the case for them in there and present value over the other layoff returning rival and projected favorite, #5 WINGING WAYS. 

We should have an idea by the finale of any turf course profile from the earlier races, something noted with #4 EVEN THE WIND, a solid contender all around, though does require pace to chase with their off-the-pace runstyle (Q2/Q4 Square) and a course which allows for that late run. Similar follows #6 SBAGLIATO coming in for their Hawthorne debut and out of higher par events from TP/California to present a subtle and slight class edge.

#5 SPONGE BATH looks potent to this race for the live connections and waiting for the first of the turf racing to begin to make a start. They bring in current form and figures to compete on this circuit and level; and at the same time a very favorable runstyle, looking at the Plot, they should have no excuses when it comes to pace.

In terms of pace, that is nothing to note with #9 BIZZEE CHANNEL, the projected favorite in this race. As an individual they stack up in that role, however, they still must overcome drawn outside, a slightly shorter distance and other pacesetting runners in this group and those rivals drawn on their inside and outside. Their runstyle is not one that is “need the lead” though still must trip to avoid ground loss and take first run with the tracking runners listed in the analysis above with strong finishing ability looking to stalk-and-pounce that first flight – that majority of the field sitting left of the y-axis in Q1/Q3. 

2-SPIRIT TO INSPIRE was claimed from a narrow loss in her first start of the meet. She had been racing competitively at Oaklawn prior to that race. This race is a sixteenth longer but she fought gamely all the way to the finish in that last race so think she’ll be able to handle the extra distance. 5-NIGHT ROSE graduated in her career debut. She withstood considerable pressure on the front end after getting pinched off at the start. She might be able to put away the rest of the speed in this race, especially if she gets away cleanly. 4-ESCOVEDO makes her first start of the year. However, she has been training well and her barn is generally good with layoff runners. 

This race will be contested at five furlongs on the main track.

4-KING OF SHEBA makes his career debut. Well-bred runner races for a barn with a high percentage of winners with their first-time starters. This one sports sharp drills coming into his first start. The distance should suit perfectly. 7-THIS BEAU KNOWS turns back in distance for his first start of the meet. He finished second in a pair of turf routes in Florida to start 2026 but he did finish third, sprinting, in his career debut here last year. However, not sure he’ll stay in the race with the switch to the main track. 8-CHIEF MORTOR races for the first time since July. He’s had three straight bullet drills in preparation for this race. Gets Lasix for the first time. On dirt or turf he’s going to be tough. Probably off turf so 9-MY LAST ESCAPADE draws in. He’s hypothetically moving up in class but he has finished in the money in his last seven races. It would be a mistake to count him out.

4-WAMPUS KITTEN seeks her second straight victory and there’s a good chance she’ll get it. She wired four other rivals in that last contest. However, she’ll be meeting others here with speed and the end results could change if she faces a lot of pressure early. 2-DIXIE PENNY raced well to finish second to top pick in last. However, although she is quick, she was unable to keep up with that rival early. But with others in here like to push that likely favorite, her ability to track the pace and come on late will come into play. 3-DIAMONDS JOY, like top pick, wired the field in her first start of the meet. She could be as quick as top choice but she has been meeting somewhat easier rivals. That could be the determining factor in a possible speed duel.

Nice race. On paper, it would seem that the likely winner would be one of two runners, Eli’s Promise or Heart N Soul but, in reality, the likely outcome could be murkier. Going to give 5-ELI’S PROMISE the nod. He’s had considerable success on this track, he’s done well at the distance, and he has the kind of tactical speed that can handle any pace. 6-HEART N SOUL doesn’t seem quite as quick as top choice but that something that could work in his favor. He’s never shown a big closing move but he could wear down those fighting for the early lead. 2-CALL ME Q is hard to gauge. At one point he might have been the quickest of these and he did win his last three starts. However, he hasn’t raced in about 16 months. Can’t be sure what he has left. 4-BABY BOAT never fired in his last start at Oaklawn but he was making his first start in 10 months. He started his career here in the fall of 2024, winning his first two races by daylight. 3-CAN DO ANDREW, teammate of Call Me Q, seems likely try for the lead. He tired late in his first start of the year at Keeneland, but he should be better prepared to last in this contest. 1-SMOKEN BOY was highly regarded early and won multiple stakes but it’s been a while since he was that kind of horse. But three of his four victories, including both stakes, were scored on “off” tracks. Maybe.

This race will be contested at one mile and 70 yards on the main track.

Don’t know who will scratch when this race comes off the turf but pretty sure 1-THE THUNDERER will stay in the race. He showed little in his first race after getting claimed by this barn but he had a pair of wins and a neck loss in his prior three races, all at Oaklawn. This should be an easier, not easy, group. Expecting him to bounce back with a better effort. 11-OLIVERIO takes on better but he won his last two races, one here and the other in Louisiana, he runs well on or off the lead, and both his barn and rider are off to torrid starts. He was entered for main track only. The speedy 6-GRAND ILLUSION runs well on either surface so expect him to stay in the race. He’s quick enough to grab the early lead and could stay there throughout if he can relax a bit on the front end.

This speed-filled race could be the perfect setup for 1-OFF TO THE RACES. He was favored in his first start of the meet and finished with good energy but couldn’t get there. With an even faster early pace predicted ahead of him, he might be able to make amends. 3-FINDAWAY was overmatched in his final start of 2025 but he’s dropping back to the right level for this. He’s had four drills coming into this and progressing the right way. Could be the sleeper. 4-ALL ABOUT TONITE had little chance after a poor start, but he meets a bit easier and races with the benefit of that race. Could hold off the rest of the speed. 

This race will be contested at one mile and 70 yards on the main track.

Quite often these turf races contain mostly “dirt” runners that after just trying out the lawn. This field is a rare exception. 3-CODE RUNNER, with 10 dirt wins with over $200k in dirt earnings, might hold the advantage. He’s moving up in class but dirt prowess and good form probably makes him the one to beat. 5-SPONGE BATH was eased in his last start at Fair Grounds but walked off on his own. He’s had limited starts on dirt but with mostly decent results. 8-PEOPLE FORCE was claimed from a dominating victory in his local debut. He jumps in class but could turn out to be the best of the speed.