Handicapper Tips & Picks

Starting out with a competitive race all around with live barns and two barns with a pair;  and that does not include ML favorite #4 ESCOVEDO one who lacks the recency of the others in this field to look outside of them for a top selection.

Trainer B. Cook brings back a pair first off the claim and from the 4/19 common race. The place finisher #2 SPIRIT TO INSPIRE finishing second and in front of now stablemate #3 BALLYBAY BEAUTY though the pair both earning B- OptixGRADES. They both return with a look in a spot where they can compete and different runstyles to work out a trip in today’s race shape.

#1 GREAT OWL has the benefit of established form and figures over second time starting stablemate #5 NIGHT ROSE wheeling right back from the debut maiden score. In terms of GREAT OWL she return from the 4/19 common race and should rebound here. Her form cycle pattern presents a move forward off the number and outcome last month and back to a competitive effort here. 

#1 ROCKFEST makes a belated return to the Hawthorne entries (along with O. Hernandez aboard, the rider named when they scratched 11/2) and upgraded from the route races to the SHORTER sprint here. He brings in conditioning and form out of tough MSW starts at Oaklawn. Going back to Oaklawn ROCKFEST was working in company (3/21 with debuting stablemate here #6 HE HAS GAME the two heads up and looks the part of a turf runner.

#8 CHIEF MORTER  makes a belated second start and noted from the after scratches three horse 7/20 debut finishing third (photo for place) as a heavy favorite on the day to their stablemate, Chi Town Prince. CHIEF MORTER comes in with some flashy published works, the 45.2 gate bullet on 5/3 following a lack of published works throughout April. #4 KING OF SHEBA debuts with a longer series of drills and a bullet move from the gate in their most recent 4/22 work as well, should not be a case of lacking fitness on this one.

#7 THIS BEAU KNOWS debuted at Hawthorne over the turf last August and has the benefit of the starts this year. To their credit, they moved forward in the two sophomore starts that 10-point improvement pairing up figures at Tampa; pairing figures in this case could suggest there is not as much of a move forward in that department.

That upside and forward projection is there for #5 LIEUTENANT CHARM as they make their sophomore debut in this spot. The debut was nothing for than a prep in September and vast improvement wheeling back for the 10/16 second start compromised with in running TROUBLE. 

#5 WAMPUS KITTEN presented upside leading into the 4/23 win and while needing to show it on the track, she did just that. Now that she proved, she can run that “fast” race and compete at this level, she will be tested to show she can repeat – and now repeat at a shorter number.

The value looks to shift in this case and away from 4/23 wagering favorite #5 MAMBA OUT returning here. Going into the 4/23 race there were some questions with current form and presence in the paddock especially at a shorter number – factors that could change here to move back to a playable category.

Place finisher #2 DIXIE PENNY also returns here doing her best for the minor on the day and could see a similar outcome while looking towards others for the top spot.

In terms of early speed, #6 LITTLE SASS has that going for her and draw outside some of the other projected front runners in this field. She showed progression and a solid level of consistency last season and since entering in the M. Quinonez barn. 

Competitive higher level allowance and that carries in terms of race shape and the two barns with two runners, though all deserving of a mention with a look to compete:

DiVito brings back the pair from Oaklawn Park second off returning to Hawthorne where both horses have been competitive. The elder #5 ELI’S PROMISE holding the higher figures, naturally; those efforts fit here and along with current fitness and reuniting with O. Hernandez, familiar rider.

#4 BABY BOAT comes in lightly raced and plenty  of upside all around. That upside carries for this second start back off the layoff and from the 4/18 return breaking SLOG and visuals to suggest they needed the race (PREP) not quite race ready off the bench and could be assessed as a positive in this case wheeling right back less than three weeks for this start. His late kick can be seen on OptixPLOT (Q4 Square) and should have pace to chase, and target given the Sun Contention and higher 55 SpeedRate.

The race shape and circuit switch should also assist #6 HEART N SOUL from the Oaklawn season holding their form all around, just in some very contentious allowance races – form should translate here to see them more competitive.

Both of the T. Tracy runners bring in early speed to take part in that Contention/SpeedRate. In terms of the pair #3 CAN DO ANDREW holds the edge in recency, however to this point they have yet show they can bring their “A” race outside of PRM. #2 CALL ME Q has been effective outside of PRM though has another hurdle giving up recency missing nearly the entire 2025 season and first start back in 482-days today.

#1 SMOKEN BOY also with a recency edge, while finding a softer race par ($104k purse)  this afternoon compared to the two March events at Turfway. Coming back this season, it appears the connections want to remain sprinting, one turn, a change from the route race campaign in 2025. 

Looking at this race from a race shape standpoint, the early pace should be honest (Fire/20 SpeedRate) to set up runners from off the pace. That includes ML favorite #5 SILVER QUARTERS, at the same time value presents on others with a similar runstyle and finishing ability.

#2 CRAFTY KING returns to the turf and subtle trips at Turf Paradise on the grass while also holding fitness from the route race coming off the bench on 4/19 to signal intent here. They are placed where they can compete and a timing which should have them competitive as well. #4 RIVER REDEMPTION finds themselves in a similar Q4 Square position for today’s race shape. They are back under L. Colon, a rider with success aboard though in this case does give up recency here.

#7 SIR LIAM lacks a pace advantage looking at the OptixPLOT for this race though can be upgraded with OptixNOTES returning to the TURF that projection from back in March at the Fair Grounds and matches up with prior starts on the turf – races which fit here to compete. Their Plot position and shape sits similar to #8 LAMPLIGHTER JACK likely shorter of the two though current form returning to the Hawthorne turf course where they picked up their most recent win – a PERFECT trip last July in higher N2 $40k allowance company. 

#6 RISKY BOY looks set up for a peak effort in this race. Coming back from the layoff 12-days at FP they were dismissed by the public from a 5-1 ML, WARM and visually did not appear race ready off the layoff, a PREP they should move forward from here.

Similar intent second-off should follow #4 ALL AROUT TONITE wheeling back from the 4/23 start. They made a positive PRERACE+ appearance down in the paddock though in running less “intent” making a RUSH inside/SAVED before losing ground and passively handled while their more fancied stablemate, Twirling Roses, finished second.

Looking at the Plot, the early pace should be honest as it sits with the “Fire” Contention and 23 SpeedRate and could be even “hotter” if #1 OFF TO THE RACES currently sitting as a Q4 Squares shows more early speed today as they are drawn on the rail, picking up J. Felix in this second off start from a subtle 4/26 trip. It is not always recommended to project a change in runstyle for trip, though in this case makes sense for a horse showing progressive form from the races this season and in their past races showing effective and competitive early speed.

Keeping with the Plot, #3 FINDAWAY should find their way to a favorable tracking trip and runstyle to fit today’s race shape. With that said, they could be a race out (and a half furlong short) of preferred conditions coming in off the layoff – though still enough to make the case for them in there and present value over the other layoff returning rival and projected favorite, #5 WINGING WAYS. 

We should have an idea by the finale of any turf course profile from the earlier races, something noted with #4 EVEN THE WIND, a solid contender all around, though does require pace to chase with their off-the-pace runstyle (Q2/Q4 Square) and a course which allows for that late run. Similar follows #6 SBAGLIATO coming in for their Hawthorne debut and out of higher par events from TP/California to present a subtle and slight class edge.

#5 SPONGE BATH looks potent to this race for the live connections and waiting for the first of the turf racing to begin to make a start. They bring in current form and figures to compete on this circuit and level; and at the same time a very favorable runstyle, looking at the Plot, they should have no excuses when it comes to pace.

In terms of pace, that is nothing to note with #9 BIZZEE CHANNEL, the projected favorite in this race. As an individual they stack up in that role, however, they still must overcome drawn outside, a slightly shorter distance and other pacesetting runners in this group and those rivals drawn on their inside and outside. Their runstyle is not one that is “need the lead” though still must trip to avoid ground loss and take first run with the tracking runners listed in the analysis above with strong finishing ability looking to stalk-and-pounce that first flight – that majority of the field sitting left of the y-axis in Q1/Q3.