Handicapper Tips & Picks

Both of the J. Campbell runner look like in the opener to break their maiden: #3 I’M HUNGOVER wheels back to this level with an extra half-furlong coming back from B OptixGRADE on 4/26. The shorter 5f distance of the race was unknown while holding a class and speed figure edge tough to deny. That class edge moves up #6 LILA’S OAK TREE one that does not hold a strong speed figure edge though numbers which fit and could even hold upside returning to this circuit and sprint distance.

In terms of ML favorite, #4 ENGAGMENT they should move up with the drop and subtle flow-upgrade setting the pace on 4/19 before tiring. They ran a new top number and pairing that effort from three weeks ago sits on par for this level. They could in terms of early speed be forced to contest the pace with #1 DAISY MAE ATTACK with the rail draw, early speed and change in class race just a second time in their career for a tag.

The two E. Rodriguez runners wheel back from the 4/26 race with #5 D’ARGONAUT holding the edge over #2 ATRAXA based on the races to date, though ATRAXA coming second off the layoff and what appeared a PREP two weeks ago all around hold a move forward. 

#2 UNION DOLLY is the lone runner in this field who races for a tag and must do so to hold eligibility for this race. That presents a class edge while at the same time does give up recency coming in off the layoff. She also looks to keep her Hawthorne turf speed record “perfect” going 2-for-2 last season – A. Bendezu the rider aboard for those wins jumps back aboard here.

#3 FONDRE should hold value in this race and even suggest intent. They wheel right back second off gaining fitness two weeks ago not showing their best on the day. They make a belated return to the turf where she has solid form and figures going back to the start of her career as a juvenile and has not been back to the grass since the end of her sophomore campaign. In terms of current form, which is “dirtied” up with the recent finishing position while in at a higher open claiming level at TP running competitive races with the B- OptixGRADE.

#5 DESERT GLOW also looks to hold intent returning to the TURF their preferred surface in this second start of the meet. Not only coming off a competitive third at this level on 4/23 putting in a strong CLOSE And GALLOP+ out behind open length pacesetting winner, Wampus Kitten. 

Looking at today’s race shape there is a scenario for #5 BLURT to clear and take this field gate-to-wire on the front end. There are overall challenges outside of a potential pace advantage coming in first off the 174-day layoff and still must run a top effort to hold late.

#3 ELECTRIC CHARGE looks well positioned in this case to try and make first run. While lacking an overall class and speed figure edge he has that tactical run in this field of five with recency coming in second off the layoff. His stablemate #2 HIGHLY PERFECT could assist to contest the pace and one worth getting a look at in the paddock as he did not appear race ready (PRERACE-) coming in off the layoff into the 4/23 return.

Looking at the Plot, #1 LUCKY BOSS also could look to take first run and should have their best chance to compete given the change in class here. While the recent finishing positions and longer odds at Turf Paradise noted, they were in a much higher race par than the one they return to today – and even a finds a softer race par than almost every race of their career moving them up naturally.

Trip from off the pace could be a hurdle for #4 REGIMENTAL though can project if a time and place for a peak this season this is it – third off on a quick turnaround for a HOT barn and getting in light with a rider change as a well, apprentice J. Aranguren aboard. 

Tough to get too excited about #2 RED MOSCATO here as the assigned ML favorite doing something new as they stretch out in distance, for the first time since a pair of starts back earlier on in their career. The connections since that January 2024 race have kept them sprinting since. The early pace is one they could reasonably look to take part in and in that role should find company with others in this field – the likes of #5 HAWAIIAN HIDE AWAY as well as the lone mare in the group, #4 ANNIE’S HOPE.

A contested early pace should assist #6 VINO COURAGIO with their off the ace run. They return in this second start of the season with fitness looking to show more tactical speed while tracking on a Very Slow early and late pace in the 4/19 start.

#1 LINE TO GAIN also worth upgrading in their second start of the season. They are a tougher horse to trust on the win end, most recent win back in September 2023, and require the price compensation. That should be there in this field and move up with the PREP two week ago and going back to similar timing and class level early last season was competitive under similar N3 conditions/distance pairing up B- OptixGRADE and holding their speed figures while at a higher level over the summer and before losing form into the fall just before the layoff.

Value appears on the lighter side for #3 WESTEROS wheeling right back off the win and taking the rise in class/par. While dominant winning by open lengths last week (5/3) they were drifting out late, something that does not show in the running line or short comment in the past performances. 

#5 END OF INNOCENCE fits squarely as a contender for this race. She brings in a level of class to translate under today’s par and change in purse from many of the Oaklawn starts. While a clear second best to a much the best chalk winner, Pink Ruby on 4/23 END OF INNOCENCE will be tested to come back and par up top figures, something perhaps when looking for knocks on the favorite should be considered as a possibility required to pair up top efforts.

#2 CODE OF CONDUCT fits as a value contender with speed figures on the main track on par and looking to get first run on the pacesetters which could include END OF INNOCENCE and ML favorite, #1 LA REYNITA looking at the Plot. CODE OF CONDUCT has raced well fresh and placed protected with each one of her starts since getting a late start to racing coming out as a four-year-old last season. Trainer P. Clay has solid number with horses returning off the layoff, greater than 180-days 29% win, 59% ITM and positive .91 ROI.

#4 BRAVE SAMANTHA moves to this circuit and back around two turns for the first time this season. Physically she looks the part of a ROUTER and no issues on that front or even in terms of trip when looking at the Plot with the Sun Contention and honest 45 SpeedRate with pace to chase, just comes down to running a faster race to compete all around and at this allowance level. Similar class and speed figure questions for #3 SHAKREVENGE in this allowance spot first off the claim though can be given an overall upgrade from the 4/3 WIDE trip slightly against the profile. 

#3 GOGH makes their racing return here and in terms of class has that edge over many of the elder, established runners in this field lacking a MCL start coming into this race. Since the juvenile debut back in August GOGH not only showing ability first out, showed a positive level of speed figure progression with each start. They were unable to overcome the gate issues something to consider and factor here though also willing to see if the time off has corrected that and even if that is the case they are back under familiar hands to correct with O. Hernandez aboard.

#2 EARL’S OUTLAW also raced protected in their lone start last season – the Futurity stakes a tougher spot on debut. With that said they showed run while GREEN breaking SLOG and making a WIDE MOVE into the 4^th place outcome behind ground saving, open length pacesetting winner, Fight the Power. There are some changes all around with the layoff, barn and owner change while just showing the one published work coming back in 2026, the 4f breeze at FP on 5/2. 

Upgrading horses of the racing *first time for a claiming tag in this spot:

#1 NITSCHKE returns from another layoff, though ran well all things considered when asked to do similar last season – the 6/8 race make a bold early WIDE MOVE into a Slow early pace and ultimately caught late by their stablemate winner, Taunting.

#6 LEMON SOHN races first time for a claiming tag on the turf and could be overlooked off their current form coming in from the Fair Grounds main track races. Going back to the turf starts during 2024-25 those figures as a juvenile/sophomore stack up as some of the higher more consistent figures in this field.

#8 EL JOVARO could be closer to a lateral move noting the statebred MSW races at HS Indy. IT does appear this one has been pointed to run on the TURF and unable to get to the grass until last October. They showed perhaps more than the running line and finishing position suggests when looking at the OptixNOTES/C+ on the day and taking the layoff which followed into consideration as well.

#2 HURRICANE EXPRESS returns to the TURF a positive surface switch for this individual. They should hold some value coming back at a what was a shorter number (and timing turnaround) into the 4/19 start. Their early speed could also be effective in today’s race shape. The DROP and TURF change should also move up #9 DYNO WAR perhaps still a longshot to win though with high five wagering in the finale worth an underneath mention.