Handicapper Tips & Picks

Between today’s OptixPLOT Fire Contention and high 60 SpeedRate this race sets up ideally for #1 SHE STOPPED SHORT (Q4 Square) and alternative to the favorite. SHE STOPPED SHORT wheels right back from a competitive race under similar conditions recording a B- OptixGRADE and late move to a clear place behind 1-2 chalk winner, Foxy Zorra on 4/23 – a race with a Sun/40 SpeedRate.

In terms of ML favorite #2 SHARP ATTACK she brings in current from along with the subtle change in class wheeling back from the 4/26 higher conditional claiming event. In terms of early speed she has the edge as the Q1 Square over fellow pacesetting rival #3 SKY RAVEN. The early pace could include #4 SMOOTH CLARET one who brings more “route speed” though has been forward in the recent sprints and suggests their natural early speed could be up close today based on Plot position. #5 TWO TIMER could also be forward today as well noting the SLOG in the 4/23 return and prior tactical speed from last season as well as the outside draw which could force their hand. 

In terms of ML favorite, #1 MAN ON ATTACK he fits as an individual and overall, however he is not quite the proven 5f turf sprinter based on his overall body of work. While not out of the question under the right conditions, it also comes down to the right price, which might not be there. In terms of stablemate #3 PONCHO ATTACK they are proven sprinting and while they have similar layoff lines into this race and from the same 1/10 Turfway common race upgrading the B- of PONCHO ATTACK over the C+ of MAN ON ATTACK on the day.

#6 MR SWEETS in an interesting new face to this group and in terms of the surface switch making their turf debut. Physically they present as “surface versatile” based on their visuals and should transfer their current form to the grass – current form and figures on par.

#2 STORM’S REFELCTION is a longshot given they must return to top form something they have no shown in the two starts (C OptixGRADE) this season. With that said, each April race could benefit in terms of conditioning while waiting for turf racing to return.

#3 DANCING MAGIC fits as a solid contender in this race. She checks the boxes on speed figures and class and even in terms of runstyle to work out a trip in today’s race shape. This will be her first start back off the layoff second start of the year, though has shown she can run a top off the bench breaking her maiden first out at Hawthorne in June 2024 as a juvenile; coming off a slight layoff later that season to record a new top figure in the place finish at Keeneland. Even her return last July at Colonial finishing 4^th while recording a solid number at the route distance on the day.

#6 BEEHIVE also a logical player in this race and projected favorite. While she fits all around and even in terms of pace advantage and even has won twice off similar layoffs though following the pattern of those layoff returns she improved number wise with racing. Her stablemate #4 DEVIL also worth a look and competitive on their best day, though has struggled to regain her form and conditioning with the pattern of layoff lines into this spot.

#1 SECRET OPERATION also deserving of a mention, perhaps more in the underneath role though not without a change just needs a lot in her favor including some of the others mentioned not running their “A” race here. 

In terms of projected favorite #2 GIFT GIVING the analysis starts there and overall in that role can project the horse to beat. Number wise she has consistently recorded higher figures and dominant with the B+ MSW win back in March at FON. She still must prove herself on this circuit and against winner while also making the transition back to the turf and two turns, though can at least respect the intent starting off on the grass and less of “guess” from that standpoint. GIFT GIVING in this race and with their early speed could also impact the dynamic of the race and with others in the race E/EP types, which prefer to race forward.

#1 ROARING VIXEN has a strong value look in this race and overall solid contender factors with the ABOVE+ Class rating. She has some tactical speed though not a “need the lead” type and with the rail draw and speed to their outside could land the right inside ground saving stalking trip to look for first run. In terms of the layoff, she will given up recency though could have been the plan to wait to return to the TURF their preferred surface and this spot the first type of race in the book to fit competitively with eligibility.

The return to the TURF also fits as a positive and intent for #7 POLSKA SUE – overall she brings in some conditioning and upside from the two starts in March not the ideal placement and conditions for her to compete and reflected in the outcome of those races.

Mentioning GIFT GIVING earlier on pace could impact #8 CARMALIETA drawn outside looking to tactical position as well as POLSKA SUE and #5 WILDWOOD ADOIS one who does appear intent for this race, a PREP coming off the layoff on 4/21 though not solid this race sets up for them to get their front end trip – the LONE lead racing under these conditions when holding place last July.

Early pace should assist #3 TRINITYTHREEINONE as they return from the layoff. She has not often had pace to chase in her career impacting the time it took to secure their first win and even taking on winners in September upgraded on 9/11 making a CLOSE X_FLOW and against the Very Slow early/late race shape on 9/28 in addition to the significant contact at the TROUBLES+ and NO_PUSH after – almost excuse worthy with the layoff following. 

#2 WILD TAPIT while just eligible for this race despite picking up the win 12-days ago is tougher to take at a shorter number. She finds the change in class and timing along with projected shorter odds today. While capable, there are value concerns with a closing sprinter at 5f at short odds. #6 MISS SAIPAN could end up favored with some higher speed figure and early speed, a contrast to WILD TAPIT.

In addition to that noted pair, this race is competitive and while WILD TAPIT and MISS SAIPAN fits they lack overwhelming edge over others.

#1 LONG TALL WOMAN looks well-placed to get back on track second off and back in against F&M noting she raced in open company for the 5/3 layoff return. She has plenty of back numbers and races to fit, including a win at 5f here at Hawthorne.

#3 HEAVENLY HASH is a longshot though not without a chance in this race. She has form on her best day and races at Hawthorne to fit with today’s par and group. Some intent could follow coming off the layoff, the weight break with apprentice J. Aranguren aboard and the barn quietly sending out live runners – also with a pair as # 7 SHE BE SHEEHAN wheels back for this with still some distance unknowns going this shorter sprint.

M. Quinonez also represented by a pair: #5 TIME BREAK had a big look returning from the layoff on 4/23, a solid effort on the day and should hold form here; stablemate #4 ABBMAR has some early speed and less questions with the shorter distance though overall lighter than others when it comes to speed figures. 

#6 MOOGIE SON projects to be favored and honest in that role. They bring in current form, runstyle versatility and fit with today’s level – a much softer par then the races this cycle from both TP and FG to move up naturally here. Form wise and keying off the FG races; a common race with #2 NOT FALLING BACK the two similar (C+) overall on the day though noting NOT FALLING BACK much shorter odds of the two, something that expects to switch here. NOT FALLING BACK an X_FLOW upgrade from the two recent FG starts (and NO_PUSH late) though could have to avoid other pace pressing types in this group with the Sun/50 SpeedRate.

#1 BRIT BLITZ fits logically in here overall. They are placed at the right level for their abilities and should find the right trip saving group with that noted early pace to chase. In terms of the layoff, they returned to win here at Hawthorne off a similar layoff last season in a $25k N2 condition, surface/distance.   

#5 ICE SHARD is a legitimate longshot though one willing to get creative with and mix in especially at longer odds. Looking over their career they hold a number of races to fit on today’s par and fit well at today’s surface/distance, arguably their preferred. They also bring upside second off and from that appeared visually a PREP on 4/19, opening day looking for them to STRETCH out in distance as well. Their stablemate #3 MONEY AGENT coming in first off the layoff has some tactical speed and could keep the early pace honest will be up to rider E. Giles to make the call of how to ride this race.

#7 AS ONE DOES looks live coming in for the connections into this spot racing back in for a claiming tag from the recent March allowance races at Sam Houston and finding a softer par. They also find themselves in strong local hands with O. Mojica aboard. 

#5 LAMPLIGHTER JACK looks to have intent coming back to Hawthorne and the turf course. The connections were all up in my text messages when the races were taken off last week so to compensate for that mild disturbance to my morning coffee getting the job done as the top choice seems fair today.

#9 ANOTHER MYSTERY drops down to run here though will race for that higher $20k tag. While they have that as possible protection it is not all guaranteed in this case and for a horse with back class and stakes form and in terms of back, regular rider O. Mojica aboard.

#5 LAMPLIGHTER JACK appears well-intended for this spot and a return to the Hawthorne turf course where they have had success and run well in the past. Those races from last season fit here nothing the higher par in those races as well as intent as they were entered and scratched patient to run here after the weather forced the races off the turf last week. They have an edge in recency which could be key with main rivals returning from layoffs.

Of the layoff returning group, #7 CAUGHT OFF GUARD holds slightly more projected value in comparison to #6 RIVER REDEMPTION the main separator between the two as they both fit and similar overall form, figures, class and runstyle.

#8 ALL CHOKED UP brings in early speed returning from the layoff and could have a tactical advantage though comes down to the rider decisions from others in this race including J. Felix aboard #4 TAHOE RUN. #2 TEMPER TANTRUM could be much shorter odds in this race not too long ago and something that perhaps is worth considering as they should hold those double digit odds.  #3 CRAFTY KING stayed in the race taken off the turf last week and back on their preferred surface and appears well to run right back in here and should continue to be fit with the WIDE trip on the day.