Handicapper Tips & Picks

#2 EASY FAST holds a passive class edge and appears intent with the class drop returning to this circuit. The drop slightly aggressive though not a significant move and countered on intent with confidence as O. Mojica is back aboard. In terms of trip and runstyle, we often see EASY FAST well off the pace though given the change in class they can sit closer to the first flight for first run.

In terms of that first flight and early speed, #5 BAD OBSESSION could take advantage with sprint speed as they have shown in the past. #6 SIR LIAM also with tactical speed and X_FLOW upgrade coming back from the higher level OC$10k event first off the claim two weeks ago.

#4 LINE TO GAIN makes their third start of the season though still requires a new top in this cycle, while returning to top form overall. While those question marks still remain, this could be the time to see improvement now “third off” while finding a rider change with F. Reyes back aboard a rider with some minor award success aboard last year. 

#4 FEVER NATION has a contender look while also holding value in this competitive race where any one of the six has a look. With FEVER NATION they make a very belated return to statebred company, the first time since summer 2024. They have held their form and figures since and project a peak effort landing in this spot back at Hawthorne and in the third start off the layoff.

FEVER NATION also holds tactical speed and something which could assist on trip in this interesting race shape. Looking at the Plot, the Fire Contention is paired with a lower SpeedRate something which despite “bunched” Q1/3, could still assist runners with tactical speed and finishing ability, the Surface/Distance Plot position and shape.

That Plot position and shape for FEVER NATION stacks up in line with #5 WAYLLEN RICHARD (and even #2 RED MOSCATO) the projected favorite in this race and logical while holding local and current form coming back from the two B- OptixGRADE efforts this season and following the BLANKET outcome back at the FG in February.

Interesting with O. Hernandez sticking with #1 FRONTIER MARKET today as they have often been the regular rider aboard #3 VERRAZANOINTHESKY following that decision here. FRONTIER MARKET all around fits and now second start against winners. They have the layoff coming back though less concerned about “race ready” and more the trip from the rail as they can often show some gate issues as displayed in OptixNOTES that combined with the rail draw here.

VERRAZANOINTHESKY returns as a Q4 Circle, not the most ideal for a closer though a lot of that Plot position and more so shape is picking up the TAM series of races and making the “excuse” for those starts all around, they would be no surprise to rebound back at Hawthorne in statebred company and show the closing kick they have in the past. 

#6 ROCKFEST looks to hold intent for the turf in addition conditioning from the 5/7 event and from the tougher  MSW starts at Oaklawn. In terms of the changes the OptixNOTES shows impacted by KICKBACK in the two dirt sprints and SHORTER from the other two starts in route/two turn races to suggest these variables should not hinder their outcome today.

#5 CREATING HAVOC appears a live FTS for C. Block and L. Colon. They bring in a steady work tab for these capable connections -  connections when looking at debuting runners in this category at Hawthorne (10-2-4-1) suggesting they send out live, race ready under these conditions.

#4 CHIEF MORTER  has been patient waiting for the grass noting  scratch from a similar conditions 5f Turf MSW race back on 5/7 – the race won by their stablemate, King of Sheba. Upgraded with intent for this belated second start and noted from the after scratches three horse 7/20 debut finishing third (photo for place) as a heavy favorite on the day to their stablemate, Chi Town Prince. CHIEF MORTER comes in with some flashy published works, the 45.2 gate bullet on 5/3 following a lack of published works throughout April, though encouraging to work on 5/17 following the scratch earlier this month and under 5 days before race day.

L. Rivelli also represented by FTS #2 CAPOVIVO – a limited published worktab for the 3yo gelding; O. Mojica with the call here and has had success aboard FTS at Hawthorne 4 for 17 win record, with two of those wins in turf sprints, and another 3 finishing second.

#1 LIEUTENANT CHARM could require a race as they make their sophomore debut in this spot; keying off a similar pattern from the debut last year -  they had the September PREP first out and vast improvement wheeling back for the 10/16 second start compromised with in running TROUBLE. 

Looking at the Plot for this race, the early pace should be cooking with the Fire Contention paired with the higher 67 SpeedRate. That set up should assist #5 BABY BOAT (Q4 Square) making their late run in this race. In addition to pace/race flow, they bring in current form, a third start back off the layoff upgraded from the 4/18 PREP And B- CLOSE under similar conditions here on 5/7.

Their stablemate #6 ELI’S PROMISE should look to take part in the early pace, looking at their Plot position and back from the5/7 common race. They still will be tested to clear from the outside while looking to return to peak effort.

The timing should see improvement today for #2 FAST JACK second off the layoff, showing early speed PRESSED in the 4/25 return, something of a PREP on the day asked for the two turn route distance and now back to their preferred sprint. Their presence in this race could make things tougher all around for #3 RAVIN’S RANSOM returning for these connections and to this circuit. Overall races on their best day which fit, however, lack any overall edge and could get added attention for the connections. 

#3 PEACOCK ROAD looks well-intended for this spot making the return to the turf, claiming level and gaining conditioning while taken out of their runstyle to contest the pace on 4/26. Looking at the Plot, PEACOCK ROAD should have pace to target returning to their off-the-pace runstyle, a Q4 Square trip suited to today’s Sun Contention and honest 64 SpeedRate.

That Contentious early pace includes ML Favorite #6 FLORIBUNDA one capable as an individual though could have to deal with the pace pressure from others including #4 DAISY MAE ATTACK, #5 APRIL’S GEM; and rider tactics from #7 MEMPHIS CASH QUEEN  (Surface/Distance) as she looks to benefit from the PREP STRETCH changes from 5/7 returning from the layoff in this second start of the season.

#1 DESERT GLOW should appreciate the STRETCH out in distance returning in this spot, a quick turnaround from the WIDE trip sprint less than two weeks ago. While the barn has sent out live this season, placing horses where they can compete, the placement has been less than ideal for DESERT GLOW in the two starts this season. To her credit, she has still ran well in each, but the subtle changes here including O. Mojica aboard are noted.

#2 LOTTA ROSES should improve second off the layoff, returning to the turf, and F&M noting she ran against open company in the 5/7 layoff return. She also reunites with A. Bendezu, the journeyman rider back in the saddle and riding lights out this meet. 

#5 TRE ITALIANI could have to contend with some pace pressure as shown on OptixPLOT for this race, though outside of that brings in solid level of consistency with Speed (figures) ABOVE+ and ABOVE on Class as well.

Looking at the contrast in runstyle, #4 GA MO TAK might not ideally by suited to the sprint distance, though capable under the right conditions. Their Class holds an ABOVE+ edge in this field to look and compensation for the distance change. In addition, they bring in current form from Oaklawn with subtle trips in March off the claim (COLD) and reset for the connections.

#3 STRATO while tough to dismiss on the Plot (ABOVE) along with Speed (figures) on par, they still could be tested to transfer their form to this circuit, against open company and with their runstyle forced to run with TRE ITALIANI early. #7 BRIDGE CLASSIC also brings in some tactical speed (Q3 Square) and while that could be a tougher place to win from, they draw well outside their other main pacesetting rivals to sit a trip to hold for a share.

#2 TAKEITAWAY overall brings upside though could also still be a race out. They should benefit from the 5/3 PREP though in terms of race par, a higher par today than where they have been competitive in the past and still could likely require a new top effort from anything they have run prior to compete. Those same considerations all around for #1 GOOD TO BE PRINCE as well as their stablemate #6 HE GONE. 

#7 ZEE is very talented and while there are hurdles here coming off the layoff, running against older, open company and first time turf, the price compensation is enough to give consideration. She has competitive 5f races from the main track in open MSW company last year and speed figures on par for this race, speed figures recorded as a juvenile where returning as a 3yo with ability, forward progression should follow.

The L. Rivelli pair of #3 FLAME DANCER and #9 SPINNING GLORY have the “proven” form for today’s conditions (similar for #2 RIETTA)  looking for the established and perhaps “safer” options, though not anything unknown from the wagering public. #10 FONDRE coming back from a dominant B+ win forced to take the step up in class here on the quick turnaround though should hold form, though less potential overlay.

#8 LA REYNITA also worth keeping in the mix. She has presented TURF visually with limited starts on the surface and less so sprinting. One of those races on the FG turf last February in MSW company has a subtle trip on the day and unable to show their best – something impacting their Plot position/shape to take with a grain of salt. #6 TIZMEONEMORETIME also back on the TURF their preferred surface to overall move up, though catches a contentious open company spot. 

2-EASY FAST should be tough. Fresh off a brief layoff after a few races at Oaklawn, he’s back on the track where he has had all his success. The drop in class and the recent bullet drill should have him poised to succeed in this spot. 6-SIR LIAM seems like the most logical challenger. He ran well enough in his first start after getting claimed but he was in too deep in a race originally scheduled for turf. He’s dropping back to the right level and turning back in distance. 1-CANYON SHADOWS has had four useful drills coming into his first race of the year while racing for the legendary local trainer Frank Kirby.

2-RED MOSCATO, fresh off a winning effort from which he was claimed, faces Illinois breds for this contest. His new trainer, tied for the lead in the standings, does well with horses he claims. This field doesn’t appear to be much tougher than the one he just beat. Can do it again. 5-WAYLLEN RICHARD just finished second in a similar race while making his first start after getting claimed. He doesn’t seem to be as quick as top choice but he’s quick enough to run right behind that rival. They could be one-two all the way around. 4-FEVER NATION had a couple lackluster efforts at Fairmount facing similar recently but he still looks like the best of the rest.

Good, competitive field. 5-CREATING HAVOC has a long series of drills coming into his career debut. His barn is winning at a 71% clip (five of seven) for the meet. Though they don’t generally pressure their debut horses to win early, this one definitely looks ready. 2-CAPOVIVO is another first timer with good drills. His barn sports a 25% win average with first time starters and is tied for the lead in the standings. 4-CHIEF MORTER went off as the heavy favorite in his lone race and led most of the way but tired late. That race was in July. He’s been working well in prep for his first start of the year, including many bullets, and he’ll be racing with Lasix for this start. Seems likely to grab the lead. Just don’t know how long he’ll stay there. Don’t ignore 1-LIEUTENANT CHARM. He finished third to a tough winner in his lone turf race last year. He’s been training well for a barn that brings them back ready.

Another strong race. The probable fast early pace could set things up perfectly for 5-BABY BOAT. He finished second in a similar field in his first local start of the year. He won his two prior two Hawthorne races. He won’t be the only one closing but think he’ll finish fastest of all. 2-FAST JACK tossed in a bit of a clunker at Oaklawn in his lone race this year but he’s been very tough at Hawthorne, winning four of his nine local races including the state-bred River Bear Stakes here last year. Been very good at the distance with eight wins from 15 starts. He’ll probably be fighting for the lead but could outlast them all. 4-INDYVILLE might be the most versatile runner in here. He's fast enough to go for the lead but can also accelerate late to contend.

6-FLORIBUNDA drops in class to make her first start for this barn and her local debut. With her good speed she’s likely to contend for the early lead but she has also shown, early in her career, the ability to rate. Lack of many drills since her last race in early February is the main cause for concern. 1-DESERT GLOW drops in class and stretches out. She hasn’t been very effective in recent turf sprints but she has been far better around two turns and her barn sports a hefty 31% win rate with runners stretching out. 5-APRIL’S GEM is a legitimate threat at a price. Ignore her last couple starts. They were dirt sprints and she’s never shown much on the main track. The turf is a different story. She has had eight turf victories, all at this distance.

5-TRE ITALIANI almost looks unbeatable…almost. He has always faced tough company and held the lead in all but one of his races. However, for the most part, he just tired a bit late. But, he did finish first in a tough allowance, going seven furlongs at Keeneland, last time out, though he was eventually DQ’d. This seems to be a softer group but there are no guarantees.  3-STRATO, a recent claim from Oaklawn, could get the right trip. Although he also owns good speed, he has been able to finish his races with good energy. There aren’t any real closers in this field but 4-GA MO TAK, with the turn back in distance, isn’t likely to be involved early and could possibly make a move late.

3-FLAME DANCER seems like the quickest member of this field and, at five furlongs, that often makes a difference. She ran well in all but one of her seven turf starts. Choice but a slim one. 2-RIETTA is rested and ready. She hasn’t been great on turf but she is versatile and races for sharp connections. 7-ZEE is a 3-year-old meeting older and making both her first start of the year and her turf debut but she is working well, she gets first Lasix, and she has good speed. Stablemate of Rietta is likely to challenge top pick for the lead.