Handicapper Tips & Picks

#5 GOING STEADY moves up with the race under their belt and slight STRETCH in distance for this spot. They bring in buried form from the races this season going back to the EX/BTL effort in the Oaklawn Answer stakes and prior recorded a B over this CD course and N1 allowance condition despite the place finish. 

#1 TAP TO OPEN fits as a solid favorite with the BTL on debut and holding solid speed figures from that effort paired up with the BOS (slight flow upgrade VF early pace) returning from the freshening on 4/30 at Oaklawn Park. #2 PERRYLU races in this spot as one of the 4yo in the field with buried form in this second route race - their first two starts projected to STRETCH and this will be the first two turn dirt attempt. 

From a value standpoint #2 ROCKY JOY should hold higher odds than #1 MOUNT HOREB as both horses take the class drop from allowance to the higher N2 claiming condition. In addition, ROCKY JOY brings in solid current form (something questionable for MOUNT HOREB and worth noting the connections considered runner for $30k on 4/28) and holding some of the higher turf numbers in this field. ROCKY JOY despite finishing 9th on 5/9 recorded a B- OptixGRADE finishing in a blanket for the minors in addition had subtle early TROUBLE-

Trainer R. Moquett has sent out live runners this meet and could be the time to take a swing with #7 KING RUSSELL. This marks their second start off the layoff, perhaps intent with the race under their belt, paired with the current trend and returning to a top effort/speed figure both on par to compete as a contender. 

Looking at some longshot ideas in this race: 

#4 MAJOR MACK has back races which make them a player and that form buried to consider despite being the most experienced runner in this field; #8 NYTTIME STORY makes their conventional dirt debut though other positive changes when it comes to class and rider following the TACTIC- last out with numbers/class on par; #9 DARK RYE lightly raced makes a second start off a subtle trip and slight drop with upside from their debut on 4/30 when running as the lone FTS in the field on the day. 

Longshot #2 HIGH FASHION KATE could find the right inside tracking trip with their draw and complexion of this field. They found a similar POCKET trip and B effort last June and could land in a similar spot all around with intent second off the layoff for current connections. #4 CLOE is the class of the field returning from the layoff for this spot and out of graded stakes, the placement during the closure of the 2025 campaign. 

Both #5 SATIN BLUE and #8 JUSTINQUESO bring in a strong late kick (Q4 Square) and should be running on late with pace to chase (Fire/61 SpeedRate) though still require that off-the-pace trip and price compensation especially on the win end for the deeper closers. 

#2 BEDTIME finds positive changes in this race with the class DROP and return to rider J. Campos, the two a solid record in the limited pairings. Those changes project intent for this spot along with a favorable form cycle pattern.