Handicapper Tips & Picks

#4 BLAZING AFFAIR has consistently recorded the highest speed figures in the field and with the change in class a major contender on those factors. The significant drop here knowingly comes with the claim attached and unlike others looking for the solitary purpose, the win, they could hold other intentions.

The class change also comes into play for #5 REACH’NFORRAINBOWS coming out of the Oaklawn meet though looking at today’s par catches a higher par than those three other events.

The inside trio all return from the 5/7 common race and going back to that race #1 NIGHT ROSE projects to be the shorter of the group, despite still needing to run faster races, the knock earlier this month and similar back in this spot. Both B. Cook runners #2 BALLYBAY BEAUTY and #3 SPIRIT TO INSPIRE bring upside in their owns ways and could look for the front wrap removal here while capable of returning to their better efforts, numbers on par with BLAZING AFFAIR. 

#3 COACH JIMI D deserving of respect in this spot finding the class DROP and PREP returning from the layoff on 4/17 at Oaklawn sprinting. They return under allowance and route conditions at Hawthorne with a near perfect record over the course and distance in the three starts from 2024 – the return to this circuit looks to be intent to regain competitive form and confidence.

#1 GIANT MOON brings in conditioning from the Oaklawn meet and key change in class to compete. Intent looks in play with the class DROP and return to route distance along with the weight break to suggest assertive handling from the rail, even the removal of front wraps could be a another positive signal here. Their presence in this race should make things tougher on rivals #4 PRINCE DAY coming out of a LONE win and new top just 12-days ago and similar for #5 SPONGE BATH while dominant B+ worked HARD to get the win and some REGRESS-ion could be projected.

J. Haran also represented with #2 DYNAMIS in this spot. Both horses with tactical speed in their own right though could see DYNAMIS in a stalking role here. They tend to follow the “every other” pattern and giving up some recency coming off the 66-day break into this race under conditions which allow them to run protected. 

#3 LICENSE TO STEAL could be looking to do just that with their early speed and wheeling back from a near “excuse” fractious in the GATE and stumbled out (TROUBLES+) returning from the break on 5/7. They look to hold intent for this spot back in at the claiming level, while in light and should be assertive with all those factors coming together along with a HOT barn.

#6 HAWAIIAN HIDE AWAY also appears well-intended for this third start back off the layoff and rider change. While they did not have any excuse on 5/10 tracking a Slow early/late pace. Overall conditioning still could have been lacking in that spot and now cycling back to a top in their form cycle pattern should be the right time and place.

Trip and pace must be considered for #1 VINO COURAGIO with their preferred off the pace runstyle. They tried to race closer to the pace on 5/10 to establish position and while changing things up (TACTIC-) the intent was in play. That should also assist with fitness and progressive Grades and figures should be in the right spot for a top effort.

Looking at OptixPLOT, tough to not at the least mention #2 ANCIENT MAN at longer odds. While they could require a race off the layoff, keeping them on the radar is wise and same for underneath use. 

Recency sides with the two outside runners with races this season in contrast to the layoff returnees and 6yo #3 QUIET DEPUTY the lone first time starter. F. Reyes sticks with #6 SIG FORTY FIVE projected to move up with the class DROP on 5/17 and a look right back forced to chase front running open length even money chalk winner, Last Moon on the day. The change in class should move up #5 STREET STYLE naturally and should hold fitness from the two start this year including the WIDE run over the turf three weeks ago.

#2 FREEDOM EMPIRE finds a significant change in class with late technical DQ drop their maiden win last April to return to the maiden condition. The change in class should move them up naturally as well and early speed shown in those sprint races could see them as the one to catch up front. The big test all around is fitness from the layoff noting 241-days away and showing just the two published works one on 4/5 and then more than a month later in the recent 5/14 move. 

#4 R U JOKING will shift to the turf for the first time and just a second start in open company. They caught a very tough group closing out 202, racing under the lights and with the layoff following, not going to hold that “effort” against them too harshly. Some intent looks in play with the steady works, picking this spot and a live turf rider with L. Colon aboard.

#1 KING OF SHEBA has some hurdles taking on older and winners for the first time, though showed ability and solid speed figure on debut. The intent from the entries was run on the turf first out and has that surface switch and rider change with J. Loveberry aboard to work a trip from the inside.

#7 URBAN RULER takes a slight step up off the win and claim two weeks ago. With those changes they also move to the outside spot and back numbers and class finds this closer to a lateral change. They should also sit as longer odds compared to stablemate #2 JOE THE TAILOR coming off the recent win as well and stepping up in class as a result. 

#4 RAG TREE should hold value in this spot with buried turf form (career and field high speed figure over the turf back in August 2024) and taking on winners for the first time. Physcially they look the part of the a TURF runner going back to their second career start and carried visually from the dominant B+ MSW win two weeks ago.

#7 NITSCHKE also steps up to take on winners though like the move up with the class change on 5/10 they should hold their form here and compete right back. With each race there has been speed figures progression, something to note with age and reading between the layoff lines.

#6 CASH APP MIKE has been at their career best over the Hawthorne turf course and appears intent returning in this  spot off a slight brushing. They raced under similar conditions back on 11/2 that race stepping up against winners for the first time and on a very quick 7-day turnaround, a contrast coming in fresh from the 83-day break here. Their M. Perez stablemate #1 WOLF HUNTER would not be any big surprise while some longshot characteristics in play and require price compensation to keep an eye on the board.

#3 FRONTIER MARSHAL still must overall improve to compete for the top spot though getting the PREP just 10-days ago and returning to the turf and two-turn distance, a move forward can be projected. 

#7 CANYON STREAK should hold value in this spot while coming back off the layoff. They turned in a B OptixGRADE closing out the 2025 season and claimed out of that race makes their belated return for the new connections and slight step up while condition eligible presents intent.

Their former stablemate #5 MOOGIE SON projects to get a lot of attention here and for valid reasons. They have held their form and figures overall and returning under similar conditions second off with a likely change in dynamic* here perhaps even the S. Childers pair of noting they chase behind front running winner, Not Falling Back on 5/14.

#2 TOWERING STORM overall should compete back in this spot and  look all around. While they will give up recency off the layoff and still must return to top form something they have struggled with since the clam last year though two be far both races WIDE trips with the higher race par in play at the FG to note in addition to the freshening which followed.

* The change in dynamic brings in other pacesetters such as #1 ALADANTE, #6 LITTLE STEVEN and even the S. Childers attack pair of #3 PONCHO ATTACK and #8 MAN ON ATTACK.

4-BLAZING AFFAIR drops in class to make her local debut as well as her first start for the Block barn. She displayed good speed to break her maiden but she came from behind in most of her starts. With all the other speed in here wouldn’t expect her to try for the lead. 1-NIGHT ROSE and 3-SPIRIT TO INSPIRE could vie for the front end. If one or the other doesn’t break alertly, the other could wire the field. 5-REACH’NFORRAINBOWS drops off the claim. She ships from a tougher meet and will race for a barn that does well with first claims. 

4-PRINCE DAY has reeled off four straight victories. He wired the fields in those races and nearly won his fifth race back in the same manner. He’s likely to face plenty of front-end company today but it hasn’t fazed him lately. Can extend his streak to five. 3-COACH JIMI D often faces tough company. He has speed if he needs it but might be at his best when he tracks then pounces. He had a win and two seconds in his three prior Hawthorne races. He figures to be tough in his return. 5-SPONGE BATH showed little in his first three starts of 2025 while racing in New Orleans but woke up in a big way in his first start here. He took the lead early in that race and drew off to win by 12. Not sure which runner will show up today. 

3-LICENSE TO STEAL was in against some salty veterans last time out and he failed to make an impact. But he’s dropping to this non-winners of three for his second start of the meet and he will find the company far easier. While he’ll never be considered “fast” he is usually among the early leaders in his races. Wouldn’t be surprised if he wired this field. 5-WESTEROS usually finishes with good energy. He was in poor form in New Orleans over the winter but started showing more when getting back here. After finishing fourth in his first start of the meet, he won his non-winners of two by 10 lengths and then finished second in last, a race similar to this. The pace should set up. Could pass them all. 1-VINO COURAGIO finished third in his two races this meet. He’s pretty much a one-paced runner and usually won’t close a ton but he can wear down tiring runners late.

5-STREET STYLE ran competitively in only one of his six races but he has never been in against such an easy field. Seems most likely. 6-SIG FORTY FIVE has had the most “success” of any runner in this race. He just finished second when dropped to this level for last. Could be ready for the next step. 2-FREEDOM EMPIRE has had only a couple slow drills coming into his first race of the year but he might be the only speed in the field. But not sure how long he will last.

This is a fun race to handicap. A legitimate case can be made for the majority of runners. But I have to go with 1-KING OF SHEBA. It wasn’t just that he won his debut, you generally expect Rivelli-trained runners to do that. It was the way he won. He tenaciously fought for the lead every step of the way and still came out on top. It’s true that the race was on dirt but it was originally scheduled for turf and this runner is bred to love the lawn. Of course he has to prove himself on a different surface but feel that he’s up to the task. 2-JOE THE TAILOR could easily win this. He is another tenacious runner and he has three turf scores to his credit. His rider is likely to have him closely tracking the early pace, hoping top choice folds under pressure. 7-URBAN RULER was just claimed from a winning effort in a turf non winners of two. He’s taking on better today but his new barn sports a 37% win average with their claims. This runner is versatile but expecting him to be racing in close proximity to the lead. 3-HE GONE is close to as quick as top choice. He’ll be racing with first Lasix. 5-GUNNY SACK ran well in all five turf races, winning twice. But he’s been mostly in against Illinois breds and he’s making his first start of the year. 6-BOTE seems a bit overmatched but he did just finish second to Urban Ruler.

7-NITSCHKE, fresh off his maiden score, could be tough. Leading rider stays aboard for talented connections. Makes his second start of the year. Seems capable of winning on or from off the pace. 3-FRONTIER MARSHALL might be the quickest of these. His best races came against Illinois breds but he’s going to be tough if he finds himself on an unchallenged early lead. 6-CASH APP MIKE is the sleeper. I’m ignoring his recent form. Expecting him to display far better speed with the move to the turf and with the good gate rider in his irons. 

5-MOOGIE SON gets the nod. He’s had a case of seconditis, including his last two races, but the majority of his races were against far better rivals and it won’t be long before he visits the winner’s circle again, now that they have him racing at the right level. 8-MAN ON ATTACK races for the first time since January but he’s had five drills in the interim. This might be the easiest field he has even met in a turf race. Should be a forward factor throughout. 7-CANYON STREAK has been training well for his 2026 debut. He was claimed in his final start of 2025 but a barn that wins with 25% of their first-time claims. He owned good speed early in his career but started coming from off the pace as he aged.