Handicapper Tips & Picks

#3 CARMENSITA is a wild card to keep an eye on in here. Tough to get a gauge on who they are as an individual coming into this race stateside, though brings in steady works for a barn sending out live as of late. That trend includes horses under today's conditions; as well as today's j/t combination overall and isolating that sample (10 starts) off long layoff with 40%win $1.79 positive ROI. 

A throwback to graded stakes field with the complexion of this group, an honest case can be made for the entire field.

That includes the two projected favorites #6 CRUDE VELOCITY and #7 ENGLISHMAN though still must be assessed not only on handicapping but in terms of fair odds. The two while solid individuals could have recency bias with the public returning from the 1-2 Pat Day Mile (G2) outcome last month. While neither could be any surprise to win the complexion of this field is deeper than the two main players they were in that common race last out.

The dynamic changes here as well for a scenario as ENGLISHMAN to present as the 'bos" they are capable of running fast early and while others have been on the lead, that has been Fast/Very Fast in routes or in the case of sprinting Slow to Average. In contrast tactics will be key for CRUDE VELOCITY. Should they RUSH, they could be pushed to the limits trying to find the same Pat Day Mile (G2) trip; or further back (surface/distance Q4) forced to work a stalking off-pace trip in this field. The tldr: both fit on speed and class, though in terms of combining with pace there are still things to overcome to win with the shorter number in play. 

Looking at Surface/Distance for CRUDE VELOCITY as a Q4 Squares, that aligns with #1 GILDED BANDIT a horse on the improve all around and deserving of the class test pairing B+ OptixGRADES with the MSW win and allowance on 5/2 at CD. 

On Standard, CRUDE VELOCITY overlaps with #4 STRADALE, a horse with a pattern of gate issues (SLOG) though also a positive "every other" form cycle pattern on that upswing coming into this race.  

Coming in from the KY derby is only natural for the top two finishers #9 GOLDEN TEMPO and #4 RENEGADE to have respect from the effort on the day and that should translate with the public. In terms of assessing GOLDEN TEMPO into the KY Derby (G1) all things lined up for a peak effort and that translated on the day. Things could unfold for them here, however lack some of those same positives and in price compensation. RENEGADE a more consistent type should carry here and like in the Derby look for first run on Golden Tempo and for that to be enough over a different dynamic, field size and race course profile. When discussing consistency with RENEGADE that can be a positive though also some concern as the speed figures have been solid, though stagnant lacking that big progressive jump with racing. 

As far as #3 CHIEF WALLABEE he had clear obvious trip adversity and the "wiseguy pick" for the KY Derby (G1) something that should carry here as well and projected accordingly by the ML. While capable, he has his quirks he is late changing leads, perhaps finds some of that trouble on their own. The EQUIP projection for the blinkers was made and while expecting to add some focus at this point appears more of a neutral change. 

#7 COMMANDMENT did not have the "obvious" trip which should assist on the board for this race and upgraded from that effort where the SLOG TACTIC and timing making the WIDE MOVE impacted their trip and outcome on the day. They have trained (imo) forwardly since and can expect a better outcome all around. 

With the C. Brown trio: #8 EMERGING MARKET had a tough task in just a third start going into the KY Derby (G1) and while they showed ability breaking their maiden B+ on debut at TAM had a live angle for that win and paired with a perfect type FREE trip to win the LA Derby (G1) while working HARD to do so. Going back to the start of the year they worked heads up with stablemate #6 GROWTH EQUITY one on a different path despite debuting on the same day, 2/7 at GP recording a B OptixGRADE in the place outcome before the B+ MSW win on 3/28. That signaled a potentially step up in class and did just that to win the Peter Pan (G3) with a favorable TACTIC+ trip.

The G1 win could be a touch out of reach for the other, other C. Brown (different ownership) #5 OTTINHO though a horse who has not nothing wrong in each of their three starts and tends to run to their level of competition. Class could also be a reach for the top spot when it comes to #2 POWERSHIFT though a quality horse and while there is not much early speed from the inside should look to take that advantage as it may be the best one they have coming in. 

#1 VITRUVIAN MAN has class questions and while they could try to establish early position from the rail, they overall might not be fast enough to do so and could be even tougher with a pattern of SLOG from prior starts. Distance wise they have no question marks on that front, a rangy type, capable of running all day just how fast is yet to be determined. 

THE GRADE 1 BELMONT STAKES

On paper, this looks like a three-horse race. Of course, nobody wins on paper. There was so much trouble in the Kentucky Derby that it’s hard to make a definitive statement that the best horse won. I’m not saying he wasn’t the best horse that day but maybe not the best today.

With that in mind, I’m going in a different direction. Unlike the Derby, this field is relatively devoid of early speed and all the top contenders come from far off the pace. Common wisdom seems to suggest that those late runners have the edge in this 12-furlong event. I’m going to take a flyer with the lightly-raced 2-POWERSHIFT. He just broke his maiden and gives up a huge seasoning edge but I can see him getting an unchallenged lead and maybe hanging on. In a race where most had traffic issues, 3-CHIEF WALLABEE might have had the worst trip of all. He still managed to finish fourth in the Derby. With a clean trip he can take it all today. 4-RENEGADE just missed in the Derby and his big effort will probably make him favorite today. There’s a good chance he’ll win this but think his probable low odds make him relatively hard to bet straight up in such a tough field. I liked 7-COMMANDMENT in the Derby and he just didn’t run much despite having a better trip than most of his rivals. But he did win his previous four races and he sports the highest Beyer Speed Figures of any in here. Wouldn’t overlook.