Handicapper Tips & Picks

Juveniles to start the card and starting with the lone runner in the field with experience #3 CUT THROAT – they debuted back on 5/14 at CD favored on the day with a TRAFFIC trip and minimal change in running order with the open length pacesetting winner, Captain Luke. The race has yet to have a next out winner though a few have run back to improve, hitting the board. CUT THROAT before shipping to CD was working at Hawthorne and similar coming out of the race including a solid gate move in 36 flat on 6/4 followed up with a 5f minute flat breeze. L. Rivelli also represented with #6 KING OF ANGELS with a steady series of works for their debut.

#5 INDIGO MONEY comes in with a pair of local works and given the limited two works on paper snappy times. Intent could follow with A/ Santos aboard, the jockey/trainer combination this season already with a win and overall hitting with a positive .52 ROI , 27% win and 55% ITM.

J. Felix picks up the call on #1 DORMIE, not a common pair for C. Block with FTS especially on the main track though has going back to AP had success with 2yo debut runners over the turf.

M. Perez sends out a pair of runners and while just a short work tab for the duo #2 CITRA METEOR and #4 CITRA MONEY this is quite typical for the barn and at the same time, not a lot of success first out with the 2yo’s given 0/34 with 5 finishing in the money. 

#1 R U JOKING  has a look right back for this second start of the year.  They were interesting moving to the turf so no excuse on that front, though could have needed the race all around and by the TACTIC- (rider change today) with the TROUBLE_S getting SHUFFLE in TRAFFIC affecting their ability for a better outcome. The class change should also move them up naturally with the lower race par and running first time at the claiming level.

R U JOKING brings in tactical speed and with the Class and Speed rating higher giving them the edge over than the other Q1 runner, #4 REGAINED POWER. Looking at the Standard Plot, #2 BIG WALT could find the right tracking trip looking for first run. He is named accurately as a “bigger” body runner and trip will be key along the inside and tendency to break SLOG.

The lone Q4 Square, #5 DASH TO THE CASH needs pace to close into though appears some intent off the layoff with J. Loveberry aboard. Noting the long layoff returning in this race, going back to last season off a similar break on July 27th recorded a B- OptixGRADE and strong speed figure, one very competitive (ABOVE) today’s par and noting today’s race par is similar and lower than the two other races following the 2025 abbreviated campaign.

#3 BIG D returns to the main track and while they still need to show speed figure improvement, they have held their own this season, a lack of “red” and should hold fitness back on the main track sprinting and at 6 furlongs something which could be favorable to them rating than the shorter sprint distances. 

#2 CLOUDY LASS returns to MCL company, though MCL company for the first time on this circuit and should move up naturally with that change. In addition she brings conditioning, third off with progressive OptixGRADES in the two starts this season.

#4 UNKEPT PROMISES also makes the change in class returning from the layoff here. She did race once last summer at the MCL level; that race a B- OptixGRADE while contested on the main track around two turns, though showed the level where they fit. As they return off the layoff here, there is just the one published work, a half mile in 47.2 on 6/3, the type of time and distance to suggest they could have been doing some preparation elsewhere.

#6 VERONICAFORTHEWIN also returning to the main track and key SHORTER one turn distance. They have shown early speed and most competitive when setting the pace and should look to clear from the outside here. #5 RISING CREEK debuting for L. Rivelli to their inside could also project to show early speed under J. Loveberry. The connections pick this spot following a Vet Scratch on 5/28 from a MSW 5f turf event.  

#1 TIZSWIFTYSMUSIC also a recent scratch, a late scratch losing the rider in the post parade on 6/11 while the longest 19-1 odds in the field at the time for that off-the-turf $15k MCL 5f sprint. #3 GOOD NELLIE returns from that 6/11 race for the second start of the season and one physically suited to TURF. 

Giving #2 FINDAWAY a chance to upset here and improve off their races this season. The return under similar conditions from their seasonal return on 5/7 though not quite race ready on the day needing a PREP and noting the TROUBLE_S and NO_PUSH with their trip. Coming back three weeks later, still likely needed conditioning and kept “protected” while running for $20k on the turf and again NO_PUSH and PREP as far as trip. The PREP, NO_PUSH Keywords are noted not just from how they impacted the outcome on those race days, but also how those races affected the current Plot position and shape. While in Q1 they could show more early speed and finishing ability and even intent for both with E.T. Baird aboard.  

#6 SAND MOUNTAIN also is in their third start off the layoff and should be sitting on a peak effort along with intent returning to Hawthorne. They make the trip upstate while coming back under similar condition from last year, races there they were competitive at Hawthorne just coming up short on the win end.

#1 MR. CHIVAS returns to Hawthorne for the first time since April 2024, a second start on this main track. They have held their form this season and project as much for the new connections wheeling back for this race in just 12-days. While the rail is nothing new for them, trip wise that still must be considered from the inside at the 5.5f distance -  MR. CHIVAS won from outside at the distance on 5/2, when they had a similar Plot position and shape (Q4 Square) though the race shape slowing late top three from off the pace. 

#3 BRAVE SAMANTHA should hold value in here and perhaps some intent second start of the season while returning to claiming company. Overall she fits at this level, moving up naturally with the change in class obvious, while also noting today’s race par is lower than anything she has had previously in her career. In terms of the move back to the TURF, she has that physical projection from early on, the OptixNOTES from their debut on the ELP main track and even in the limited grass races kept numbers consistent with their form at the time and should hold similarly here.

#9 TUM TAP will run today for the higher $20k claiming tag, a bit of a gamble racing for the connections while also placing where they can compete. The surface switch should not be an issue moving to the grass and capable o taking a step forward in which appeared a PREP two weeks ago.

#10 TIZMEONEMORETIME projected to move up under similar conditions in the 6/4 N2 claiming event and a look right back in here. They pick up a rider change, a positive move not only as A. Santos had been aboard previously, while following a TACTIC_ making after the SLOG to making an inside/SAVED CLOSE behind the open length winner “BOS” winner, Wildwood Adios.

#5 SHO DOMINA is a bit of a wild-card in here as she must improve. With that said, they have yet to run back to the top figure, that number earned on debut as a juvenile and in terms of the races this season, a top effort can be projected third off while moving to the TURF. 

The early pace might not look as contested (Snowflake) though should be honest with the majority of the field either to the left of the y-axis or on/above the ParLine with some taking the distance change - #4 ANCIENT MAN, #5 LAVENDER EARL and #8 MINNESOTA MOON stretching out for the first time this season.

That pace scenario can assist #3 ROCKET HOTSHOT (Q4 Square) with a late run while bringing in current form for this third start off the layoff and in-form with the B OptixGRADE recorded under similar conditions on 5/17 while coming off the layoff, sitting ABOVE+ on Class as well. ANCIENT MAN also with the Standard (current form) Surface/Distance Square can be upgraded while also looking at the STRETCH Projection in OptixNOTES as they make that added ground change here.

In terms of the early pace, #2 WESTEROS as a Q1 Square can p graded while also holding competitive form from the races this season. While WESTEROS holds the ABOVE rating on the Plot, “longshot” #7 U S HONOUR NAP sits ABOVE+ and can be given a look with that buried form. Speed and Plot also designate ABOVE for #5 LAVENDER EARL in this field, while holding consistent B- OptixGRADES in the sprint series stretching out here. 

The early pace should be honest (Sun/40 SpeedRate) especially with the inside runners sharing the EP runstyle those *inside four post runners on Surface/Distance left of the y-axis and above the ParLine and the two outside drawn (#7 TEXAS CYCLONE and MOHTAFIL) main body runners of the field also looking to establish early position should set up horses from off the pace:

#5 DATTTS LIFE should hold longer odds for the connections and with their recent finishing positions. Looking at the two starts this season, the 5/21 return from the layoff recorded a B- OptixGRADE with PREP STRETCH Projections added to the trip OptixNOTE. They recorded a higher figure under similar conditions second off, 10-days later on 5/31 restless in the GATE in running making a WIDE MOVE as the top two finished in a photo for the win.

#6 TOWERING STORM likely more obvious and from the same 5/31 common race while now in their second start of the cycle coming back with a rider change to J. Loveberry suggesting intent. They are legitimate sitting ABOVE in terms of Speed figures and ABOVE+ on Class to make them a major player in this race.

*Inside four: #1 GRAND ILLUSION, #2 MAN ON ATTACK, #3 RIETTA and #4 MONEY AGENT.