Handicapper Tips & Picks

#4 ORNERY ANGEL finds a couple of big changes in this race to move up as a result. In terms of class, she takes the DROP down for the first time this season from the higher race par events while returning to claiming company where she was competitive last year. The post position change also notable in this case moving outside from the rail last out to assist with a tracking trip. The race shape should suit that off-the-pace trip; looking at the Plot ORNERY ANGEL sits in Q4 with plenty of pace as the other four runners in this field sit above the ParLine in Q1/Q2. 

In terms of current and consistent speed figures, #1 LOWER BROADWAY has that going for them to fit today’s race, however, has come up short at this similar MCL level in the past without much excuse. To be fair, today’s par is lower than what they have faced in the past and that could be the difference maker to pick up the win, though should still be a factor to consider on value.

The change in class comes into play for both #4 CREATING HAVOC returning after the SLOG TROUBLE_S on debut last month and switch not only to the main track but also picking up O. Mojica to signal intent; #5 CHIEF MORTER also taking the class drop for this second start of the season though will note they are also entered on 6/26 at CD in a $12.5 MCL event to see where they end up running could be some intent.

When looking at Class, today’s par is higher for #3 GO CHICAGO returning to Hawthorne and the dirt for the first time since their late season November 2025 debut. #2 MOUNTAIN MIKE also finding the change in class, a higher race par, returning as a sophomore and will pick up Lasix for the return while also showing up first time against open company. 

#3 LONG TALL WOMAN has value look for this race making some changes to suggest intent and a peak effort. As far as the races this season they looked to need a PREP coming off the layoff while in against open company on 5/3 and moved up with the B- OptixGRADE at the $5k conditional claiming level they return to here. The addition of front wraps was noted in the two recent starts and could see a change here along with the timing and rider switch with F. Reyes taking over.

LONG TALL WOMAN has the back numbers and figures which not only make her a contender but also put her on par with the current numbers from #5 BLAZING AFFAIR, the likely favorite in this race. She is valid (but maybe not value) in that role given the consistent numbers overall on par and while off the claim and the win returns under similar conditions and to suggest they can run back and compete once again. 

Tough to not start the handicapping of this race from the Pace standpoint, when looking at the Plot and the unique dynamic of the Snowflake Contention paired with the higher 60 SpeedRate and with four of the six runners listed as sharing the E/EP Runstyle. That sets up for #6 SHE BE SHEEHAN one which has consistently recorded the B- OptixGRADES this season and with the May quick succession of races now back with a change in timing, 28 days later - and rider change as well to F. Reyes to further intent and land the right time and place.

Timing and overall conditioning in noted for #2 MORNING LINE NEWS one when looking at the Plot aligns with SHE BE SHEEHAN and case can be made on that front; however, current Form with the recent layoff lines create other questions outside of what can be seen “on paper.”

#4 HOT DAME sits ABOVE on Plot (Q1 Square) to track behind #1 LUNARCHY and #3 SKY RAVEN to look for “first run” on their P/PC Runstyle rivals mentioned above. In addition, HOT DAME is ABOVE+ on class taking the class DROP though will note that change does come with a lack of recency for this race, a belated second start of the year, 58-days since the sprint back at FP on 4/28.

#5 SOME OF IT is a bit of a “wild card” and with that noted could question value as projected second choice. In terms of the distance change, they sprint most of their career at the route distance and numbers in line with current form to handle the change around two turns. Trip and tactics will be key as they have at times show early speed around two turns including the 9/23 win last year with today’s rider A. Bendezu aboard. 

With the recent rain this race is likely to move to the main track and while #3 SINE QUA NON is a major player on the turf, sprinting 5f on the main track is a different game. That said, their MTO stablemate #7 ELI’S PROMISE jumps up in that case and for this second start of the Hawthorne season. The trip on 5/7 making a WIDE MOVE should assist fitness wise and has in the past show forward position when going a shorter 5/5.5f sprint distance if needed however does have their presence of #4 WILDWOOD SICILIAN and #5 STRATO both front running  types to their inside.

#6 INDYVILLE also upgraded as not only MTO but in this second start of the season in which had PREP visuals and signs on 6/7, their first start back and from a 245-day layoff. They took part in the early pace making a LONE lead then rating which allowed the others in the field to catch up and make things tougher on INDYVILLE later as the race, extended sprint distance, started to Slow late. 

As an individual #6 REACH’NFORRAINBOWS fits and competitive (B-)  under similar N2 conditions behind the open length chalk winner, Blazing Affair (racing in Race 2) on 5/31.  Looking at the Plot, they should be running on late tough to ignore as a Large Square in a group of “Circles” making up the complexion of this field.

With that said, today’s SpeedRate is on the lower side, a scenario that could present a tactical edge on the front end if another is able to get free and clear and run a top effort at the same time. #2 CAME UP ROSES might be that horse. She has some hidden ONE_TURN sprint speed and cutting back in distance from the most recent route races. She has the sprint back on 4/19, opening day, 5f distance and with the TROUBLE_S from the rail was unable to get to the lead though to her credit still recorded a B- OptixGRADE. Stablemate #4 SAFECRACKER SUE coming in off the layoff and first start back this season has competitive races in her own right, though similar type tracking runstyle as main rival REACH’NFORRAINBOWS.

#1 GREEN GRACE still might not be fast enough to compete though will give credit as with each start this season she has improved number wise and the “every other” class drop has her back at the claiming level, better suited to their abilities. 

The surface switch could come into play here and will note both of the M. Boyce runners here #1 CULTURE SHOCK and #4 ZEE scratched when the races came off the turf back on 6/11, though that race was a route distance and perhaps that along with waiting again for another race will consider the main here.

#4 ZEE has the solid dirt form from 2025 to fit as a contender while upside and given a big look right back from the 5/21 trip when breaking SLOG TROUBLE_S before putting in an inside/SAVED CLOSE X_FLOW behind the “lone” winner, Spinning Glory. Overall,  ZEE brings in the higher speed figures from the juvenile season compared to stablemate #1 CULTURE SHOCK though to be fair CULTURE SHOCK with subtle trips in those two last season starts, something which gave them the upgrade and ultimately the win on 5/17. Class wise they will be tested again protected while against winners for the first time, though overall could still hold their own and lightly raced continue to present upside, however the rail could be tricky with the 5f distance. 

#7 SHEZTHEFACTOR is not entered MTO though has main track form and figures on par and stayed in the 6/11 race when the races came off the turf and perhaps some intent for either surface. As far as the effort, she ran her race, though perhaps some distance limitations coming into play and will also note less than ideal timing as far as form cycle, with the 16-day turnaround following a HARD effort with the MSW win at TDN taking on winners for the first time.

The lone MTO #8 LADY ELISE clearly intent if this race comes off the turf; at the same time, speed figure wise still must show another move forward as they lack an edge there even when looking through the main track numbers recorded by many other rivals in this field. #5 PLUME also lighter number wise coming into this race and could get public attention for the connections and following the open length MSW win last month while lacking value should that be the case.