Handicapper Tips & Picks

In this competitive field of five, the outcome comes down to trip and rider tactics. Each of the five competitive in their own right and where projected favorites #1 ANOTHER MYSTERY and #5 PROTONIC POWER are solid in that role both make their run from off the pace and require pace to run into.

 The early pace should be honest with #4 NOT FALLING BACK in the field, at the their best when on the lead, though requires their speed to carry over Class (BELOW) taking a passive rise up the ladder. #3 JOURNEY should find an ideal trip with tactical speed and first run. Further intent appears in play for this second start of the season, a PREP at the sprint distance on 6/4 and picking up a rider change to further intent.

#2 COACH JIMI D is the wild card racing over the turf while they fit on speed figures and class. That carries in terms of current form picking up the allowance win on 5/31, landing a lower race par and also holds tactical speed along and paired well with O. Hernandez, the two together presenting a solid record. 

#2 KETCHUM could run as advertised as they likely to show early speed stretching out from an inside post around two turns for the first time. In addition to the pace advantage, they hold a level of class from the allowance FG races and much needed class DROP from the stakes at CD last month. The intent has been to run back at Hawthorne at this level, noting a scratch from a similar conditioned race when the races moved to the main track on 6/14 though that event also a sprint.

#1 CIAO TOMMASO shifts back to the TURF they surface they physically appeared suited for and proved as much with the B+/dominant MSW win on 5/28. They held their own taking on winners on 6/11 over an off track (WEATHER) making a WIDE RUSH to hold fitness as they return to a route distance here.

In terms of class both #4 CASH APP MIKE and #6 MAN ON ATTACK take a step up from the recent claiming races. MAN ON ATTACK exits the higher par events giving them as an individual, the edge; however in terms of race shape, CASH APP MIKE with some pace to run at seems to do their best work and should have an honest pace to target looking at the Plot with the majority of the field, the others positioned to the left of the y-axis. 

While #5 HARD TO FATHOM is not necessarily a “need the lead” type the change in class, outside post and with E.T. Baird aboard find themselves assertive in this spot. The class drop coming first off the layoff, is another reason to suggest taking the race to the field early as often can be the plan when assuming the class edge.

With HARD TO FATHOM forwardly placed keeping the early pace honest, a pace already projected contentious with #3 CONI’S COUP and #4 PEOPLE FORCE in the race, both front running types and coming off recent front running wins – a potential dynamic change in this spot.

Perhaps #1 LINE TO GAIN attempts to show early speed today to try and wake them up as they draw the rail, stretch back out to a route, a recorded work since the most recent start and with the apprentice weight allowance in play with V. Lara aboard. LINE TO GAIN does require a return to top form though has plenty of races in their career which fit as a contender.

Similar can be said for #2 NEW YEAR SURPRISE requiring a return to top form though has plenty of those races in their career to compete. They find a change in class for this race and that could be a sign of intent as well as J. Tavares jumping back aboard. They are a bit of a stab though the type of race which does hold some “chaos” aspects and the only horse in this field eligible due to the N4 condition. 

A competitive race all around and will note #5 MISCHIEVOUS RICHIE cross entered to run in a turf sprint MSW at CD on the same day could be some intent where they land for this second start.

The two Divito runners draw side by side along the inside with #1 ROCKFEST holding the recency and surface/distance edge improving over the grass sprinting this season. They should be in a competitive position with the pacesetters drawn to their outside and look for a tracking trip along with the extra half-furlong of assistance. Distance wise #2 ROCKY RACCOON presents more on the ROUTER side physically. In addition, they were entered MTO in that 6/7 common race, scratched when the races stayed on the grass and could be sneaky looking for a surface switch should that come into play.

The distance change comes into play for #3 THIS BEAU KNOWS one who has lost ground in the route races while setting or pressing the pace and perhaps some intent cutting back here. While ground loss has been the case, to their credit, they have shown speed figure progression with each start and a player on that front.

#4 THIEVER also has shown speed figure progression though lighter than their rivals and still must step forward on that front. Physically they appear suited for TURF and remain on that surface. The TURF Projection also in play for #6 STORMYSTORMYNIGHT one with additional hurdles returning as an 8yo after 957-days out while taking a big step up in class from MCL to MSW for the return. 

In terms of #6 EVEN THE WIND, they are a major player at this level with current form and speed figures on par. With that said, they are cutting back to one turn for the first time in their career and a horse often a deep closer routing, trip must be considered with that unknown in play as what expects to be a short priced favorite in this race.

In terms of the early speed, the pace should be honest with #2 NAGY AND DA BEARS and #5 WE MISS ARLINGTON along with #4 SAWYER FOX in the field, one on their best day could be “bos” threat. #1 SHAKE UP also has some tactical speed and not a need the lead type, could save ground behind that set of the first flight and fall into a first run rail trip. Their form cycle, also projects upside with the 5/17 PREP, a race competitive (B-) in the fourth place outcome and step forward on numbers is not out of the question.

#7 MR. SWEETS with some tactical speed, could be looking for first run and brining in current form from the races this season. While class and par wise this is a step up from the win on 6/14 two weeks ago, though still a drop from the par set at PRM/TAM where they have previously run and been competitive to suggest they can hold their form here. They should also hold their form back on the turf with surface versatility recording a B OptixGRADE on 5/14.

#3 GUNNY SACK comes into this race lighter figure wise, though upside as a four-year-old in this third start off the layoff. They find a subtle change in class returning to the turf and should be sitting on a peak effort here. 

This should be the time and place for #1 WOLF HUNTER to pick up their second career win. They bring established two turn main track form, consistent speed figures on par, current form/conditioning and key right running style for today’s race shape. With that said, can be a tough horse to take at a short price.

Similar knocks just with the projected value as #2 MOONRISE DRIVE also well-spotted all around looking for their belated N2 win. With some excuses at this level on 5/3 (TROUBLE_S, WIDE, NO_PUSH) they rebounded two weeks later (5/17) making a MOVE into a Slow early pace behind first run winner, Rumbling. The connections use a similar pattern here; a quick turnaround and class drop from the 6/18 HS $10k N2 event just 10-days ago.

In addition to WOLF HUNTER, the barn represented with #4 GAME SANTA perhaps the value of the field. Number wise they have yet to run as “fast” though still a lightly raced 4yo with upside from their races this season and yet to run back to the figures from the first part of the sophomore season. This could be the time they run a top this meet, following an every other pattern back to a route and catching a lower race par then the common race sprinting on 5/24.

#3 BEST DRESSED MAN also worth a longshot look. Some of they top figures from last season were recorded at the maiden level and flow aided and should be noted overall though also likely baked into today’s odds. In terms of the races this season, they must step forward though appeared to be using the sprints for conditioning and some nuanced “excuse” with the 6/9 “trip” making an X_RUSH into a Very Fast early pace and wrapped up (NO_PUSH) unable to show their best on the day. 

#7 FLORIBUNDA moves up back around two turns, a distance familiar to them and was not the case on 6/7. With that said they continued to show progression and recording a B, a solid effort despite WASTED a lot of energy prerace trying to get saddled, broke SLOG and making a WIDE CLOSE to finish alongside first run winner, Fondre.

#1 ROARING VIXEN is a slight “longshot” though not without an upset chance as she makes her third start off the layoff and back to the TURF their preferred surface. Value should hold with buried form overall and especially from the 6/11 start run under poor WEATHER track conditions making a WIDE RUSH and NO_PUSH less than halfway through the race unable to and not asked for their best on the day. Common rival, #6 PEACOCK ROAD also projects to appreciate the move back to the TURF though more “obvious” given their recent outcome.

#8 ROYALLY SASSY should hold their form taking on winners for the first time as they have been consistent since debut. With that said, they were able to not only get away with the LONE lead to pick up the MSW win though get away with a Slow early and Very Slow late pace. While respecting ROAYLLY SASSY here, the number appears short and creates value alternatives on others.  

#5 CULTURE SHOCK also steps up to take on winners and first start around two turns and while ROYALLY SASSY has the established numbers to support, CULTURE SHOCK would not be a shock to present upside in the speed figure department. In addition,  there has been intent for these changes this season; CULTURE SHOCK scratched from an identical spot when the races came off the turf on 6/11 and scratched from a race on Thursday with this race preferred all around. 

Very nice race despite the short field. Wouldn’t be surprised if every runner in here went off at 3-1. If the field stays intact, there’s a good chance that Journey and Not Falling Back will wind up in a speed duel. If that does happen, 1-ANOTHER MYSTERY and 6 PROTONIC POWER will get the pace they need to set up for their late run. Another Mystery nears $1,000,000 in earnings. He has won seven of his 14 local races and six of 12 at the distance. But he is 10 years old. Protonic Power was beaten as the favorite in last when the race was moved to the main track but he is another that has done well on the local turf and he won his last two turf races here, beating Another Mystery as well as Journey. As mentioned above, 3-JOURNEY and 4-NOT FALLING BACK will likely leave the rest of the field far behind as they fight for the lead. But that duel could cost them. On the other hand, if one scratches or doesn’t break alertly, the other could have clear sailing on the front end. 2-COACH JIMI LEE didn’t show much in his lone turf race but he would be hard to beat if this race somehow got moved to dirt.

7-DYNAMIS was entered for the main track only. While the race is unlikely to be moved to dirt, he would be hard to beat if that happened. 2-KETCHUM will be tough on the turf. He was overmatched in a $200k stakes race in last but good natural speed and the ability to still finish well bodes well for his chances in his first start back here since his maiden score. 6-MAN ON ATTACK is the main competition. He runs well in most of his turf races but he hasn’t won in a couple years. But he missed by only a head in last. Figures prominently. 1-CIAO TOMMASO was an impressive winner in his turf debut. He beat state-bred maidens in that start but he won by seven and the speed figure he generated in that race places him squarely in the hunt.

What is the over/under on the number of claims entered for 3-CONI’S COUP? He wired the field in a dominant fashion in his first start of the year while protected by the waiver claiming rule. He’s eligible to be claimed in this race. If he runs the way he did in that last race, who will come close? 4-PEOPLE FORCE seems like the only one in here capable of offering any kind of competition. He won two of his last three but just seems considerable slower than top pick. 5-HARD TO FATHOM is in terrible form but he’s dropping a few levels to make this start.

5-MISCHIEVIOUS RICHIE makes only his second start and his first on turf but think he’s substantially quicker than his rivals. Love his pedigree. Loved his mama. They’ll have to catch him. 1-ROCKFEST has had two turf races, both sprints, and he finished second in both. Don’t think he’ll keep up with top pick early but he could be poised to ow him down in the stretch. 3-THIS BEAU KNOWS finished third in a “key” race to start his career. That was his lone sprint. Turns back in distance for this. Should make some kind of move late.

It’s unlikely that it will happen but 10-STRANGE ARRANGE, entered for the main track only, would be awfully tough if this race did get moved to dirt. 6-EVEN THE WIND seems to hold the advantage. He lost his first race of the meet by a neck to slightly better. He has always done well on this course. His tactical speed allows him the luxury of racing well against any kind of pace. 4-SAWYER FOX is plenty quick. He won two of his three turf races at this distance and it seems likely that he’ll secure the early lead. 2-NAGY AND THE BEARS is a solid competitor. He finished second versus slightly better in last after winning the race prior at this level. 

6-LUCKY DESTINY stretches out for the first time. With the stretch out, he’s likely to be much quicker than any of his rivals. Can wire the field at a great price. 1-WOLF HUNTER looks like the one most capable of catching top choice. He finished in the money in his last three. However, he’s making his 29^th start and he has only managed the one victory. 2-MOONRISE DRIVE finished in the money in four of five Hawthorne races.

Like the way 5-CULTURE SHOCK finished her last race. It was only a maiden claimer but it was her first start of the year and her first race with Lasix. This race is a couple of furlongs longer but she was full steam ahead when they crossed the wire in last and the extra distance of this race but even suit her better. 8-ROYALLY SASSY, like top pick, graduated in last, her turf debut. Unlike that other filly, they are both 3yo’s meeting older, she wired the field. She might be sent right back to the lead today. 6-PEACOCK ROAD could be coming on late. Not sure there is enough early pace to set up for her but she did win her lone Hawthorne turf race utilizing that strong late move.