Handicapper Tips & Picks

Giving a look back to #5 DOUBLE THUNDER in this spot for the third start returning from the layoff and from an improved, competitive number and B- OptixGRADE under similar conditions on 6/11. Heading into that race they projected to move up with the STRETCH in distance following the layoff returning sprinting on 5/3.

DOUBLE THUNDER should find a favorable outside tracking trip, with tactical speed and pacesetters #2 LITTLE STEVEN and #4 OLIVERIO drawn to their inside with J. Felix aboard looking to track and take first run.

That first run could be key not only with capable rivals in LITTLE STEVEN and OLIVERIO contesting the pace, but with common rivals #1 HANDSOFFTHEGOODS and #3 CITY OF GOD returning from the WEATHER impacted 6/18 event and both runners recording respective B/B- OptixGRADES. 

Arguably #3 ALL ABOUT TONITE is the “most likely” in this race with competitive races this season and key early speed which could be the necessary pace advantage. A lot of that could come down to not only bringing their “A” game but the rider tactics of the two outside runners in #4 DEVILS RED and #5 RODAVLAS if they send and contest the pace. If they look to track that could set up for first run, though could also see ALL ABOUT TONITE take advantage of the lack of pace to take this field all the way on the front end.

In the scenario of that contentious early pace assists #2 MON AMI FUZZIE as they could track and look for first run. That is their ideal scenario to win and likely requires that three horse contested early pace to set up their run. While capable of finding that trip, along with holding current form, the right number is still required to play.

#1 ANCIENT MAN should be sitting on a peak effort here and their best effort of the season. With that said, they are another who requires a trip not only from the rail but with their runstyle. Some intent looks in play here, third off, progressive efforts while switching to an apprentice rider looking for a weight break advantage. 

Many in this field hold surface versatility should this race come off the turf, and those runners choose to stay in the race. That includes #1 MONEY AGENT, a price in this race on either surface and while they have recorded their higher career figures on the grass they are capable on the main track when at the right level for their abilities and with the right trip. MONEY AGENT holds runstyle versatility something which could be key given the others more “restricted” in their preferred manor.

As far as MTO #7 STEFAN’S TITLE intent is clearly there and placement similar as they land on this circuit looking for “softer” while still keeping them running for a similar $15K claiming tag. Overall they still require a top effort though lightly raced and getting the STRETCH out for two turns here coming out of the one turn mile with the higher par freshened since that 5/31 start. 

#2 SAMARITA has “upset” potential in this spot and should follow value with the recent running lines and finishing position. Given the placement, trips and timing of those races that should be considered in outcome. That includes the return, a spot which appeared a “prep” for a runner who has spent a lot of time on the race track and very little of it on the turf or going the two turn distance as the case on 6/7. The connections have used turf-to-dirt to show improvement, and the place is reasonable where a suspicious drop could signal otherwise.

In addition, SAMARITA has early speed and that asset could be key with a pace advantage given her main rivals can prefer to stalk-and-pounce. #1 WILDWOOD QUEEN could attempt to show early speed; however she has a pattern of gate issues (RUSH, TROUBLE_S) along with the rail draw here, SAMARITA just to her outside and WILDWOOD QUEEN while in form, is taking a slight rise in class to note as it might not come with the price compensation. #6 LIT MISS HAT TRICK could also attempt to show early speed landing in this circuit once again and has the front end score breaking their maiden as a race strong on speed figure to compete here.

The E. Rodriguez pair not discounted: #3 SALLY’S SUPRISE with that tracking trip could be in the right time and place finishing some class relief while returning to the main track and sprint distance for the first time since the season high figure and B OptixGRADE on 5/14. #4 KEEN GAL finds a subtle change in class along with the surface distance switch, though not much of an edge otherwise and even going back to the 5/14 common race recorded the B- to the B of stablemate SALLY’S SURPRISE. 

#3 SOUND OF VICTORY brings in current form (along with main track form) into this race and that competitive form could be overlooked given the recent finishing position. While there was no excuse in terms of sitting close to a Very Slow early and late pace racing forward in the two starts since entering the A. Hernandez barn; the excuse could come in the tactical style as a horse who prefers to have a target than be one. There are others in this field suited as preferred E/EP types to take that role here not only assist SOUND OF VICTORY and A. Santos taking over the handling for tracking trip.

A contrast in race shape for the pair of J. Haran runners both #4 GIANT MOON and #5 DYNAMIS sitting up close to Very Fast early race shapes while forward in their recent starts presenting a flow upgrade here. Both horses look to hold overall intent (either surface) placed on this circuit and level, a subtle change for both finding the higher par at Oaklawn too tough to overcome on the win end. DYNAMIS returns from the 6/11 common race with the winner HONOR POINT looking to turn the tables and at the least can improve nothing the poor WEATHER (raining) and WIDE before rider wrapped up (NO_PUSH) late.

#6 AMERICAN CAUSE fits as contender in this race shipping in and back to Hawthorne where they have been competitive in the past and under similar conditions. Number wise they have recorded solid figures this year at FP while creating some of their own “trip” issues at the gate with the TROUBLE_S and RUSH in both still competitive B- in addition to the figures all around.

#8 SILVER QUARTERS holds back class and numbers though for this event finds a slight rise while also a slight flow upgrade given the race shapes in the two starts since picking up the B+ win back on 5/7. 

There is a likely scenario for an honest early pace as the “bookend” runners #1 PEOPLE FORCE and #5 EUCLID AVENUE tend to run their best run on for near the leas establishing position up front at the first call. #3 BLURT also has early speed and a subtle class edge finding a lower race par today compared to their other starts this season. While it could be a reach to project #2 ICE AXE race forward, they have in the past and V. Lara aboard today could signal some type of change on the track.

#4 ROCKET HOTSHOT could benefit rom that type of pace scenario, while already a fit off their overall form. Some of that form is buried from the two recent starts, those efforts following a big (B) effort off the layoff on 5/17 some recovery (regression) playing a role in addition to in running making a WIDE MOVE. They (along with ICE AXE) caught the WEATHER on 6/21 racing under heavy rain and poor track conditions with both racing WIDE. ROCKET HOTSHOT has returned this year with the addition of front wraps and should be checked out today for a change. 

#1 MONSIEUR CANDY looks well-spotted and capable of pairing up wins returning under similar conditions/par from the 6/4 start and with overall speed figures consistently recorded throughout their career. They have tactical speed to win on the lead as they did on that day though also have shown they can pass horses. The connections have been looking for the right place to run on the turf since the win last month and looks to be intent there though unknown whether they stay in the race on the main track.  

Stablemate #8 RAVIN’S RANSOM has plenty of main track experience to compete with that surface switch. Like their turfy stablemate RAVIN’SRANSOM has enough early speed to make the lead though can pass horses. They also bring upside from the “trip” on 6/4 nothing the TACTIC_ (rider change today) after the TROUBLE_S made a RUSH then took hold showing late interest and even more with a strong GALLOP+ after the wire.

#9 BABY BOAT a major player with the race off the turf, drawing in from the AE. Their form and figures also a strong fit and class edge at this level. They also could show intent reuniting with A. Bendezu the rider aboard with the closing place finish on 5/7.  

MTO #8 MEMPHIS CASH QUEEN looking for the main track and upgraded with the same intent all around going into the 6/14 race. That start second off after the STRETCH PREP coming off the layoff fin the 5/10 turf sprint. The outcome not as ideal three weeks ago, though neither was the pace scenario for their run making a WIDE MOVE into a Slow early/late race shape impacting the outcome and tougher to see with the running line and finishing position.  

Given this race complexion drawn up for the turf (Sun/50 SpeedRate) there are main in this field to keep the pace honest with E runstyle #1 SMOOTH CLARET along the rail stretching out from the recent sprints and rising in class at the same time; and joined by EP pair #2 DESERT GLOW and #7 MY LADY SLEW all strong front runners in their own right.

#3 VISIONISTA was caught tracking LONE stablemate DESERT GLOW in that 6/14 common race and like MEMPHIS CASH QUEEN should find a better scenario for their trip here. The same carries to #6 LOTTA ROSES one who arguably is at their best on the grass and upgraded back on the turf.

#4 DEAL’EM AND WEEP gives up recency making their first start of the season in this spot though spotted well all around. Looking at the Plot she should benefit from the race as it is drawn up as a Q4 Square with the majority of the field above the ParLine and to the left of the y-axis. 

Hernandez taking back aboard #1 MINNESOTA MOON could signal positive intent here. They also return to the sprint distance where they have sprint the majority of the recent seasons. Cutting back to a sprint following a subtle trip on 6/21 with the WEATHER (heavy rain) playing a role but also TACTIC- racing X_WIDE and NO_PUSH. Their sprint form this season could be dismissed and buried though the outcome of the races while recording B- OptixGRADES for both efforts in May.

#3 HUEY ATTACK holds plenty of back numbers and class to fit as a contender. They require returning to that follow to compete though if ever the time this would be it. They returned after the pattern of long layoffs with another on 5/3 recording a B- OptixGRADE that day. The front wraps came off while moving to the turf two weeks later and subtle trip (TROUBLE- NO_PUSH) with a class rise as well and now drop back to the $5k level with the return the drop and dirt.

Looking at the Plot HUEY ATTACK brings in early speed along with #5 UNCAPTURED PULSE, a scenario which could still a “bos” situation with main (Square) closing rivals #2 MR. CHIVAS, #4 EASY FAST and #6 OFF TO THE RACES positioned deeper in Q4. 

#6 CLOUDY LASS moved up with the change in class back in MCL company two weeks ago and should translate here back on the turf and/or longer distance to build off the B- effort. Coming out of the sprint and overall races to date they should be expected to race forward and their threat in a front running way.

Similar upgrade follows #4 BOURBON AMERICANA as they make their first start at the MCL level on this circuit and should move up naturally with that in play. In addition they can be given a slight upgrade with the TACTIC- from the rail on 6/4 and SHUFFLE back along the inside making that inside/SAVED MOVE into a Slow early and Very Slow late pace.

#2 STARSHIP INTREPID gave an honest account (B-) of themselves on debut last month and had the backing of the public favored first out and as the only FTS in the 6/11 field. They caught the WEATHER (rain/wind , poor track conditions) and slight delay due to a late scratch nearing post time; and in running, they had a TROUBLE_S made a WIDE RUSH and still making up ground with a CLOSE late for show behind front running winner, Engagement.  

#2 EVEN THE WIND wheels right back to their preferred route distance after racing up against it with their running style sprinting just last week. With that said they still recorded a B OptixGRADE in the place outcome making a WIDE CLOSE (after the SLOG) and continued to GALLOP+ out after the wire. As far as the dirt that is an unknown as they have run almost exclusively on the turf since the lone dirt start (that race their third career start HAW 5/2024 MSW) and that includes five times scratching when races moved to the main track.

#4 TEMPER TANTRUM has spent most his career away from the dirt though has limited starts on the main track worth a look at this level. The change in class comes third off and with the change in claiming tag – they ran for the higher $12.5k back on 5/14 off the layoff (B-) and protected in starter allowance only 10-days later. They return fresh here and with a rider change all factors to see improvement and improvement at longer odds.  

#6 ALL CHOKED UP was entered under similar conditions on 6/11 and scratched when the races were taken off the turf and seems intent here all around. Given that is has been 52-days since their return (2235-day layoff into the 5/14 start) they might stay in the race on the main track and show their early speed as that has been the key for them and yet to pass a horse in their career to date.

#8 LAMPLIGHTER JACK showed early speed in their two return starts this season and while capable on the lead, arguably some of their better career efforts have been with a slightly tracking trip. They could return to that today draw more outside and with a rider change to F. Reyes to further intent.

Looking at the Plot EVEN THE WIND and #7 MOOGIE SON plot similar position/shape in Q2 looking for first run on the Q1 group which includes #3 VITALE a horse who has not been officially entered MTO this season though effective with that placement on the main track this season. 

2-LITTLE STEVEN could win right back. He was second early in his Hawthorne dirt debut but when he got to the lead, he held it all the way to the wire. Comes back at the same level. The ability to thrive on wet tracks could come in handy. 1-HANDSOFFTHEGOODS had dead aim at tip choice in last but the wire came up too fast. He was making his first start of the year in that race and should be fitter for this. The probability of a heated early pace ahead of him helps his chances. 4-OLIVERIO won two in a row before taking on rivals at this level in last. Think that was a tougher group than this and most of his recent speed figures were higher than those of most of his rivals. Would select him higher but he hasn’t raced in nearly two months and has had only one drill during that time. 

3-ALL ABOUT TONITE seems most likely. Speedy runner finished second in his last two starts, finishing ahead of most of these rivals at least once. 2-MON AMIE FUZZIE has had two races this year and finished third in each, behind top pick both times. 5-RODAVLAS won his first start of the meet but showed little when moved to the lawn for last. But he is back on dirt and drops in class. He did win by daylight the last time he moved to the main track following a dull race on the weeds. 

5-GRAND ILLUSION looks tough on either surface. All four of his races this meet have been scheduled for turf but all have been moved to the main track. He won one of them and just narrowly missed in last. But he might be even better on turf where he has been victorious in two of his three races on that surface while finishing second in the other. 3-TOWERING STORM removes blinkers for his second start of the meet. He hasn’t shown a lot since blinkers were added three starts back but he was far more competitive without them, always against better rivals. Could wake up in a big way. 2-TEXAS STORM is hard to figure. Not sure he likes turf, even though he has had success on that surface and he really seems to dislike wet main tracks. However, if this race does get moved to dirt and the track is fast, he does hold a legitimate chance. 1-MONEY AGENT is a legitimate speed threat if this race does stay on the lawn.

4-KEEN GAL has improved dramatically since coming back to Hawthorne. Her turf race in last wasn’t great but she finished third the last time she raced on dirt and she won her two races prior. This is her easiest field since she broke her maiden. Looks like the one to beat. 1-WILDWOOD QUEEN finished second in her first two races of the meet, one on turf and the other on dirt, and finished a close third in last despite considerable traffic trouble. That race was also too short. The extra distance of this contest works in her favor. 2-SAMARITA looks like the best speed. She showed little in last, her first start of the year but that race was on turf and she finished up the track in all her turf races. She has been far better on dirt, especially “wet” dirt where she won four of her seven races, along with two thirds.

Really have no idea if this race will be on or off turf or, if on the main track, whether it will be wet or fast. But I am thinking the race will be moved because of continued thunderstorms. With that in mind…Going to go with 7-HONOR POINT. This lightly-raced 4yo won three of his last four races, including the victory in last, a similar race that was moved to dirt. He has proven that he can win on wet or dry dirt and he seems to have the right kind of tactical speed to score one more time. 1-SPONGE BATH has two wins on turf and two on dirt but think he’s a better runner on the main track. He’s going to get the early lead. The question is how long he’ll stay there. 2-BIZZIE CHANNEL, the likely favorite and likely winner if the race stays on the lawn, has not shown a thing on dirt. Not sure that it will change today. 5-DYNAMIS didn’t show a thing in his lone turf try and he wasn’t much better on the sloppy track in last but think he has a great chance if this race gets moved to dirt and the track is rated fast. 8-SILVER QUARTERS is always a threat but don’t think there will be enough pace to set up for his late run. 

5-EUCLID AVENUE will contest the lead along with a few others but he is dropping in class and he’s been a monster in these nickel claimers. 1-PEOPLE FORCE will be right there throughout. He has a pair of wins and a second in his three local claiming races. 4-ROCKET HOTSHOT is the best closer in a field where most of the runners want to race on or near the lead. The pace should set up perfectly.

1-MONSIEUR CANDY looks like a standout on turf but doubt if he would start if this race does get moved to the main track. 9-BABY BOAT could be the one to beat on dirt. Entered for the main track only, he looks like the best late runner in a speed filled field. He’s two for two at the distance. 3-STRATO will be laying right off the pace. He’s two for two since getting claimed from his last race at Oaklawn. He never ran on turf but see no reason he couldn’t handle it. 6-KAZOOM probably gets the early lead on either surface. He won his last two. Can extend his streak.

7-MY LADY SLEW should be tough on or off the turf. She’s making her third start of the year. She finished second to a tough group in her last. Could be on the lead all the way today. 5-APRIL’S GEM seldom get much respect at the windows but she has been a factor in so many of her turf races. She finished second in her last two. Can do it again. 4-DEAL ‘EM AND WEEP makes her first start since February but she had four solid drills coming up to this race. In her 13 turf races, she has finished in the money 10 times, winning three.

3-HUEY ATTACK drops in class and heads back to the main track. He might be the quickest member of the field. Baird as the pilot helps his chances. Might not get caught. 4-EASY FAST takes on better while switching barns but he did win his last easily. There isn’t a lot of early pace in here which could help his chances but most of his main competition are also late runners. 5-UNCAPTURED PULSE is hard to gauge. He might be the quickest runner here but he switched barns since last and is now in the hands of an unknown (at least to me) trainer.

6-CLOUDY LASS isn’t the only speed but she could be the best. She has shown some ability on turf and dirt. Drops to her lowest level yet. Might last on the lead. Could this be the day that 5-CATNIP HILL graduates? She is making her 23^rd start as a maiden but her last race, when they finally added blinkers, was easily the best race of her career. She finished second in a maiden special on the weeds, going off at nearly 65-1. 7-WW BEST OF TIMES could challenge for the lead.

7-MOOGIE SON looks tough in this spot. He’s dropping in class after just beating better rivals at the distance. Probably takes them late. 2-EVEN THE WIND is consistently in the hunt. Like top pick, he’s dropping in class and will likely wait until the stretch to make his move. 8-LAMPLIGHTER JACK and 5-RIVER REDEMPTION might be worth a look if this race does come off the grass. Both would have a shot on the lawn but both have scored three times on dirt, which might give them the advantage on the main track.