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Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Mon July 6th, 2026

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Emily's Analysis

Ellis Park Race 1

Post Time 1:50 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#1 BOURBON SEREGETI should move up with the class drop and even some intent returning to the two turn distance. Their early speed from the rail could be further effective in today's race shape especially with both #2 BIG DIG and #5 ARGAN returning from HARD effort wins in their recent starts. 

The contrast in runstyle moves up #6 MIRANDA'S ROCKY as well closing from off the pace should have pace to run at though still requires price compensation. 

Ellis Park Race 2

Post Time 2:19 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#5 FEELING GRAND one of the few 4yo should be solid contender in here with the MSW numbers on the grass last year and upgraded returning form the layoff with the move to MCL company. Trainer K. Danner has started out the meet live picking up a pair of wins with both runners.

#3 IN AMERICA also moves up with the class DROP a belated change for them beneficial off the race visuals going back to the debut last October. In terms of form and speed figures they have recorded consistent numbers and in the case of the recent CD starts upgraded with WIDE trips in both. 

#1 INTEREST ONLY wheels right back for this season start and could be some intent with the fitness and landing on the turf, the intended surface first out. While no in running excuse, perhaps fitness was the goal now on this circuit. R. Mott showed up last season at ELP with a live group of runners and could see that trend continue here.

Ellis Park Race 5

Post Time 3:44 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

LONGSHOT: #6 SUSSUDIO upgraded with the return to TURF and change in class to claiming company. Going back to the 4/29 start under similar conditions they recorded a B- OptixGRADE and career high figure despite the outcome to suggest they can run competitively here. #11 ROMANY ROAD also upgraded with the return to TURF while following a positive upswing in an "every other" form cycle pattern. Speed figure wise they have consistently recorded numbers on par for the grass when in the right time and place to translate here. 

Ellis Park Race 6

Post Time 4:12 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#1 ANGEL BELLA moving forward in their form cycle to take another step forward here returning to the two turn distance third off. They also present a flow upgrade coming back from the B- on 6/7 breaking SLOG TROUBLE_S and WIDE behind a Slow early pace and moves from a Snowflake Contention to Sun here. 

Woodbine Race 4

Post Time 4:31 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

The number and effort recorded by #8 BETTERMUSTCOME back on 5/3 stacks up as one of the strongest efforts in this field and a contender on that front. Perhaps with the 29-days since the most recent start suggests they can cycle back to that effort here needed to compete. 

Woodbine Race 8

Post Time 6:35 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#1 TUX should show improvement in this spot second off and upgraded from the 5/31 start following the SLOG made a WIDE MOVE X_FLOW in a race with an open length pacesetting chalk winner and minimal change in running order. 

Woodbine Race 10

Post Time 7:34 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#3 TRANQUILLO all around positive change with the class relief moving to MOC from MSW to move up naturally and with a softer race par than they have held to date. Now in the start of the current form cycle and second of the meet projecting to IMPROVE out of the 6/7 outcome nothing a TROUBLE_S (stumbled out of the gate) and sneaky CLOSE tough to see with the running line and finishing position.