Handicapper Tips & Picks

Starting with the one start experienced pair, #1 LIAMS FANCY was GREEN on debut both in the paddock and behind the gate which carried in running while still recording a solid B- effort all things considered in the place outcome and the edge over #7 CITRA CLOSEOUT exiting the 6/18 common race.

Those two runners will be joined by stablemates and while #6 MY CHICKADEE will get attention for the capable connections (L. Rivelli), the work tab gas some gaps whereas #5 MOLDOVANKA shows up with some snappy moves, slightly uncharacteristic for trainer M. Perez.

The pair of M. Boyce runners both IL-bred take on open company though appear well-prepared with a solid series of works leading up to this debut. J. Felix aboard #3 GREATAWAY could be the separation while similar pattern of drills and times along with #4 RAPID. 

The class edge sits with #4 ANOTHER MYSTERY and #5 PROTONIC POWER in this open claiming event. The two are runners typically known for the off the pace runstyle, Q4 types, though the class edge changes the tactical style for the pair moving into Q2 as Squares for this race creating a more neutral pace advantage across the board. Splitting the two is tougher “on paper” days in advance, though at post time the board can assist on that front. 

#1 GO CHICAGO returns with considerable class relief and upgraded here. The timing and placement could signal added intent, second off and claimed for $7.5k back in February at TP before running in the $15k MCL 17-days ago. Getting out of the gate has been a hurdle for them to note as they are paired with the rail draw – still a major contender though must be mentioned.

The gate issues (SLOG, TROUBLE_S) has also been a pattern in the two starts this season for common rival #5 CREATING HAVOC though also upgraded with the change in class and from an improved second start making a WIDE MOVE X_FLOW following the adversity from the break.

#2 FREEDOM EMPIRE lacks a class edge racing at this level this season though has the edge over #4 GRAY MIKE with similar form at this level. GRAY MIKE will be joined by stablemate #3 MOUNTAIN MIKE a lightly raced type, must improve to compere, however, should be the time and place if ever to show progression making the change in class, and following the 6/25 PREP should be sitting on an improved effort. 

Tough to knock #5 UNKEPT PROMISES in this spot with the class drop and returning from a game effort (B) for the layoff return racing under poor WEATHER conditions on 6/21 making a late CLOSE to finish one of four across the wire in a BLANKET finish. The effort not a one-off and similar number wise competitive with overall speed figure consistency throughout 2025 to translate here.

#4 BOURBON AMERICANA might just be at the level to overcome the distance change back at a sprint, perhaps less than ideal though 6f is preferred over anything shorter. Outside of that, they moved up with the class drop last week and projecting to IMPROVE from the outcome given a compromised trip from the break, a SLOG TROUBLE_S taking contact and in running making a notable WIDE MOVE.

The inside and change in class should assist #2 WW BEST OF TIMES to compete and their early speed, early speed which has been present sprinting. #6 LILAS OAK TREE showed more tactical speed with the drop and returning to Hawthorne back on 5/24 with the HARD_LEAD that day and likely going to have to do similar here to compete all around.

#1 WAVE OF MEMORIES made a positive PRERACE+ appearance off the bench last month and ran to it with a solid and clear place finish behind the open length chalk winner, I’m Hungover. Number wise she has yet to record a number as fast as their main rivals and must improve on that front though another honest effort is projected. 

#5 BLAZING AFFAIR is the horse to bear coming into this race with the efforts this season (B+) and higher speed figures. Perhaps there are some potential vulnerabilities pairing top efforts under shorter rest with REGRESS potential coming out of the 6/25 start finishing clear though in a drive with some drifting late.

With the potential door open, #4 DEVIL holds back numbers on par with BLAZING AFFAIR and brings in current form while taking the class drop, first time to this lower claiming level. #1 LOST SUNSET capable of returning to a top effort now third off, peaked as has been the case in the past off the layoff and win on 6/11 less recovered and subtle trip (NO_PUSH) on 6/25 unable to show their best on the day.

The layoff comes into play for #2 LUCY’S LOOKIN LEFT and could need a race as that has been a pattern for them in the past when returning from longer layoffs and would weigh that along with the post time visuals clues from the board to the paddock. 

In terms of the M. Perez pair on their best day there is not much between #1 STREET STYL E and #2 GAME SANTA number wise. Current form STREET STYLE has paired higher figures of the two this season and will look for that to translate to taking on winners and back to the rail and rider change as the maiden win rider sticks with REGAINED POWER here. GAME SANTA cuts back to a sprint an FLOW upgrade from the Very Fast early/late race shape at the route distance two weeks ago. They should be as fit as can be off that effort and reasonable to project a new top for the season here.  

#5 CANTARITO wheels hack from the 6/28 common race as well and B/BOS effort on the day taking a tough beat with Moonrise Drive getting up at the wire. They have shown sprint speed in the past and that could be in play and impact the race shape.

Without CANTARITO and #6 BULLDOG MIKE looking for the lead, that creates a scenario for #4 REGAINED POWER to hold a massive front end pace advantage and no excuse in terms of trip/pace. They had to DUEL (and PRERACE-) back on 5/24 racing at this level, something they could avoid here with a LONE trip. While they were able to sneak out with a LONE lead on 6/21, that was following a RUSH at the higher claiming level, however closer to a similar par. #3 BONIFIED CRAZY could also show early speed, it is a bit unclear back at a sprint and all around requiring a top effort to officially hit the wire first. 

#6 SPINNING GLORY comes in with tactical speed and recency, though off the recent wins drops here to run for a tag, though since she has been in for the gain in the past and claimed when in for $12.5k perhaps there is some “protection” with the placement here. With all of that said, they are likely favored and while getting it done at a short number last month at CBY in a four horse field, that price is less appealing here with other options.

#2 FRANKEL BABY fits as a prime contender with Class/Speed on par and tactical speed from the inside for this turf sprint. There are the recency pattern of layoff lines, though seems a less concerning move to run here for $20k, a higher claiming price then the recent TP starts to suggest they are not looking for a giveaway.

#1 FLORIBUNDA appeared well speed on 6/28 returning to the route distance, however unable to compete as a late scratch getting loose at the gate was third choice 7-2 at the time of defection. With that scratch, this placement could be second choice back at a sprint and for the shorter 5f distance – the added .5 furlong required for the place finish on 6/7.

#5 FONDRE returning to the TURF and every other form cycle pattern figures to hold their form and look to compete though race par wise is a slight rise from the 5/10 and 6/7 wins. The return to the TURF is also a positive for #4 DEAL’EM AND WEEP however the shorter sprint distance is an unknown and as often a closer at the route distance, they could have a lot to do late. 

#2 A P BLAZING GREEN brings in current form from the races this season, while a slight 45-day freshening for this spot. In addition to those positive factors, they will STRETCH out in distance from the 5f to 5.5f and while that does not sound like much it can be a big difference sprinting on the turf with 5f a specialty distance. With A P BLAZING GREEN he is not a confirmed front runner though does possess tactical speed (Q1) and with #6 LAST MOON the only E runstyle horse in the field, A P BLAZING GREEN could track right off of them and work a trip.

#7 J J’S SOLUTION holds buried turf sprint form and while more of a closer in those races many of those at a higher class level where they held their own and recorded consistent numbers. Some intent has been in play to run on the turf and at this claiming level, entered back on 6/14 scratched when the races came off the turf. In terms of pace to chase their stablemate #5 CHEF RAY WILEY could be assertive in here as they have shown tactical speed at times though has been SLOG compromised as well.

#1 BOTE also in that similar tracking trip position while distance might not be their ideal, the N2 conditioned races this season is where they have been most competitive pairing up B- OptixGRADE in both the 5/17 and 6/14 starts. 

This is a highly competitive race and no knocks on any runner in this field as an individual. The knocks come down to price for  #1 SHARP ATTACK as they step up in class here and could get attention off the open length back-to-back wins coming into this race.

In terms of the group returning from the 6/18 common race, a race won by #2 RACEDAY ATTIRE with a longshot look that day won at 23.6-1 though worked HARD to do so. That can upgrade #3 LITTLE SASS from that event and in terms of form cycle and similar for #4 ICY RIVER looking at the Plot for this race has a tactical edge.

While #6 MAMBA OUT does not have the ideal Plot position/shape some of that comes down to trips and returning here and the 6f distance with the outside post of the group could signal a rebound and longer projected odds.

#5 DIXIE PENNY has been lighter on class in terms of the win end, though has been B- consistent underneath runner to carry once again. 

#6 MADELYN ATTACK fits as contender in this spot and overall intent for this second start of the season. She has been scratched a couple of times since the 5/21 layoff return, a race they likely needed along with the class DROP also in play back in claiming company. She holds tactical speed which should be effective in today’s race shape, though still a trip required as she needs expert handling.

#1 RIETTA comes back to F&M company after running against open on 6/21. They likely needed the race that day and held her down taking part in a Fast early pace DUEL and four horse BLANKET finish at the wire. While no stranger to the rail, with their tactical speed, an assertive ride by L. Colon could be in play and look to play a threat on the front end.

Tactically #2 SHAKREVENGE was assertively handed on 6/28 and while recording a solid effort all things considered, the trip on the lead, does not appear their preferred runstyle. A tracking trip looking for first run could be effective especially if RIETTA sends from the rail and the outside runners, stretching out from sprints, show early speed as well.

There is a scenario for #4 BRAVE SAMANTHA to come back with a tracking trip and pair up wins. Physically, she looks the part of the TURF runner and while there was not much as far as success in the four grass races to date, she was in against MSW company at the time, perhaps class as much of a factor (if not more) than surface and looking at those efforts she was recording figures in line with today’s par and field – something which would be no surprise to replicate here and upset. 

Giving a look back to #4 SHAKE UP to shake things up in there. In terms of current form this season, they could be overlooked with outcome and running line, while visually competitive with the competition pairing B- OptixGRADES. They wheel right back for the third start with that current form, subtle trip, change in class and key change in post moving off the rail.

#6 ONE TIMER holds a significant class and speed figure edge, tough to ignore and positioned as the horse to beat. While they are a stakes winner, those races from 2, 3 and 4 have been split with layoff and minor finishes lacking a win since August 2023 could just be looking for the spot to regain winning ways with the drop here.

#7 VERRAZANOINTHESKY will require a lot of racing luck with the 5f distance outside of that stacks up for the level and off their current form. Going back through their career, there are a set of turf sprint efforts which fit on class and speed including their MSW win from September 2020 – 5f at AP. 

Rather than make their first start for C. Block a $20k claiming race at CD on 6/25, #5 XCEL wait to run here at Hawthorne and protected in allowance company. They finds a much more reasonable spot to compete here and in contrast to the allowance at SAR on 6/4 with a much higher race par and for a COLD barn at the time.

#4 GA MO TAK tends to follow an “every other” pattern and on the upswing as they wheel right back in two weeks and keying off the B OptixGRADE effort at this level back on 5/21. Intent appears in play all around and upgrade even from the prior meets racing with a higher par to hold a subtle class edge.

#3 TAKEITAWAY shifts back to take on open company at this allowance level, a tough task though brings in current and progressive form from the races this season and has yet to run the numbers they were recording in 2025. That pattern (even similar in 2024) shows a horse who races into shape, improves to higher speed figures with racing.

Looking at the Plot, #6 WE MISS ARLINGTON brings in early speed and while finishing ability (Circle) is weaker they could stick around despite tiring late for underneath. That could also be dependent on the type of day they are having – when looking at their five most recent starts the three races when finishing off the board were also when fractious in the gate and was better behaved in the two May races finishing in the money for those. 

C. Block has a runstyle complimentary pair in this race with #9 CONI’S COUP looking to set the pace (must clear from the outside) and off the pace runner #7 EVEN THE WIND returning with current form to a preferred two turn distance. Class and trip is often “easier” for CONI’S COUP up front dictating their way on the lead, and while that can be the case here they are taking a rise in class and could find pace pressure from(#2 WICKED SURPRISE and others with hidden early speed and buried form.

Trip is also key for the L. Rivelli pair of #3 MOOGIE SON and #4 SILVER QUARTERS though both horses sharing similar class, form and speed figures coming into this race and logical types on their individual factors.

#1 HILARIOUS AFFAIR is a price to keep in the mix. They have held their form since the barn change and proven surface versatility. They were less proven at the route/two-turn distance making that change for the two most recent start after sprinting nearly every  start since starting off their career in 2021 as a juvenile.