Handicapper Tips & Picks

#2 SECOND OPTION should benefit from their debut on 6/18 when skittish heading to the paddock, arrived late at “riders up” and hustled to the track the GREEN continued from there and at the break in a TROUBLES+ broke in a tangle, making contact with rivals and showed interest with a WIDE MOVE.

Common rival #5 PHINAROSA physically showed surface versatility as they move to the turf today and perhaps intent for them – less so on 6/19 with their stablemate (and next out winner) Liam’s Fancy in the race.

FTS #3 RAPID scratched from a MSW 4.5f sprint last Sunday to run here instead to suggest intent for this IL-bred with live rider F. Reyes. Stablemate #4 TUMMYCAT also debuting here against open with steady works, a live turf rider in L. Colon and likely waiting for a grass race in the books for a first start.

Both of the M. Perez “bookend” debuting pair #1 CITRA TIME and #6 SPORTLOTO have typical works for the barn and often can gather additional clues from the paddock and board, though usually tend to race into shape. 

The early pace should be honest with the three inside (#1 BRIDGE CLASSIC, #2 MISCHIEVIOUS RICHIE, #3 WILLING N ABLED) runners E/EP runstyle horses positioned in Q1/Q3 near the par line. While #5 SHEAR MAGIC is also listed as a EP runner and recently won at PEN as the BOS, they can show tracking ability to rate giving Jose Betancourt options for their one mount on the card.

A first run tracking trip should also follow for #4 JOE THE TAILOR showing ABOVE+ on the Plot while ABOVE on both Class/Speed to fit as a logical type. With that said, value should land with stablemate #6 URBAN RULER the two from the 5/31 common race with the pair in a BLANKET finish however URBAN RULER earning the B to the B- for JOE THE TAILOR despite the finishing position. 

#3 R U JOKING had a look at this level on the class drop last month catching WEATHER (rain/poor track conditions) while chasing inside of eventual open length winner, Big Walt. They move off the rail today, perhaps looking for the lead in here and a potential threat on the front end while a major threat returning to a top effort and figure recorded last year now third off.

Number wise #6 LOWER BROADWAY returned to a top number and effort with the maiden win last month and while not a “one-off” for them they should hold form coming back in this spot first against winner, overall level of consistency,

On the number front, #5 DASH TO THE CASH has recorded some of the higher figures at Hawthorne and given an upset look in here. Up until last year, they spent their career protected in MSW/allowance company playing a role in race outcome while number wise consistent and earning checks along the way. They have been competitive dropping into the claiming conditions though often can be pace-dependent and still to consider, though should have the necessary price compensation. 

This is a tricky race when looking at the expected pace with runners coming off layoff, changing surface/distance in this spot. A “most likely” scenario is for a contested early pace, with that said, and with the lower SpeedRate, positional speed, closing ability and class could still hold a trip forwardly placed. The M. Boyce pair of sisters in #4 WEDNESDAY ADDAMS and #7 ZEE fit that profile.

WEDNESDAY ADDAMS makes their first start of the season here (note a scratch from 7/5 when races taken off the turf) and returning to F&M company closing out 2025 with an honest C+ effort in the Hawthorne Derby, a strong race all around holding form since. She requires a top effort off the bench, a repeat of the figures from the two route efforts on par here. ZEE has the edge in recency taking the step up in class off the win and GRIT  effort on 6/25. In addition, they will stretch out for the first time though there has been intent for two-turns scratched with the surface switch on 6/11.

The inside/outside runners bring in closing ability with #1 PEACOCK ROAD holding form this season and another honest effort projected though does require a top with a subtle rise here; #8 JUST HANGING ON gives up recency off the layoff though off class/form/speed is at a level where they can compete if race ready. The two route races back in 2024 subtle trips from the rail, though their runstyle appears closer to the November (2024) style.

#2 END OF INNOCENCE has a couple of turf races (second start and a turf sprint last June) with conditions trip enough to suggest that was more than the surface alone. As far as turf intent, they have been entered a few times as MTO this year (scratch on 6/7 and 7/9) and could be intent for the main track should a surface switch come into play.

The E. Rodriguez barn started out the meet HOT and #3 KEEN GAL part of that sample as the first two time winner of the 2-26 meet. The barn has cooled down as of late though KEEN GAL holding form and figures to compete here (and a look at the right number) while also should be fit after staying on as the BOS X_FLOW sprinting two weeks ago. 

#4 MARY MOONGLOW stands out in this group on the class drop sitting ABOVE on Speed (figures), ABOVE+ on Class and Plot (pace) with their runstyle in today’s group. As far as form they come into this race off a slight freshening while recording a B OptixGRADE off the bench, a winning type effort for the level on 4/26 and perhaps taxing recording a new top figure (81 -- needing the time and not recovered when back on 5/24 to make sense of the 56-day break into this race.

Looking at the OptixPLOT, #4 MARY MOONGLOW is positioned as the lone runner above the ParLine as Square in Q1/Q2. Their tactical speed should allow them to set off the projected pacesetter in #5 MISTY SUNDAY (possible #2 LUNARCHY) and for MARY MOONGLOW to take first run on #1 HEAVENLY HASH and #3 LONG TALL WOMAN as well as Q4 Square (closer) #6 COCKTAIL CUTIE. 

#4 STRONGER TOGETHER had a big look at this level and second off for the 6/14 start. While recording a B OptixGRADE the trip was interesting rider TACTIC- perhaps less ideal decision with the rail draw. STRONGER TOGETHER has tactical speed, their ideal trip is to track with a target and look for first run.

Looking at the OptixPLOT, that is the trip projected for STRONGER TOGETHER a “bullseye” Square in the center of the Plot looking to rate off the pacesetters and look for first run. The early pace is not as clear with the lone E Runstyle horse in the field, #6 PAYNTER’S CANVAS (Q3 Square) and while they should be forward at the first call, both #2 LICENCE TO STEAL (3-1 live odds and RUSH WIDE X_FLOW on 7/5) and #3 REGIMENTAL (Q1 Surface/Distance Square) should also look to show tactical speed and capable in their own right.

#1 FINDAWAY also should show early speed with the rail draw, stretching out for the first time this season and only second time in their career. While they need to step up off their efforts and figures this year, they have had subtle trips since returning from the layoff, not also ideally placed and with back numbers and a win at this level last September, a longshot (granted legitimate longshot) case can be made.

#7 TOWERING STORM is a bit of a “wild card” making the change in surface/distance for this race. They hold just a pair of dirt starts both route races at the FG with one of those two a strong number (84) well above today’s par. Their  current form (Standard) shows them as a prime contender (Q2 massive Square above ParLine) while ABOVE+ on Class making the change to run at this claiming level for the first time, the lowest level of their career – would not be surprised to see a claim.  

#5 ICE AXE raced themselves into condition and subtle trips and the removal of front wraps on 7/5 showed massive improvement all around and a competitive race in open $5k claiming company and pairing up that effort has them right back in the mix here. 

#5 LAST MINUTE should be first run and a threat (Q1) to take this field gate-to-wire. They present the controlling speed in this race while moving up for this second start on the circuit. The May return might not have been as race ready as needed with just two published works split by a month and since did not return until July with solid half mile spacing a week apart into this race. Further intent could follow as A. Bendezu back aboard with much of their success together last year. Value could hold here as #4 CANTARITO projects to be favored once again.

#1 ANCIENT MAN stepped forward third start back last out and should continue to hold their form while even capable of further progression. #2 LAVENDER EARL returns to a sprint and not only has sprint form (B- OptixGRADE) in the races this season but moved up competitively sprint-to-route in the past. F. Reyes jumps back aboard with L. Colon sticking with #6 DEVILS RED – a Standard Plot position and shape to keep in the mix and in line with both LAVENDER EARL and CANTARITO. 

Open $5k claiming race on the turf brings in many to the field and many back on shorter rest. #6 EVEN THE WIND is a solid, logical player and coming back from the place finish and CLOSE in the7/12 common race and upgraded not only from that effort moving into a Very Slow early/late pace set by front running winner, Wicked Suprise, the dynamic looks to change here from a Snowflake to Fire assisting their runstyle – Q2 Square.  

While both #1 MOOGIE SON and #2 SPONGE BATH figure to compete with the change in class all around and for their connections project public support as well. Looking at the Plot, MOOGIE SON sits in line with EVEN THE WIND and #4 RIVER REDEMPTION, one who should be overlooked while at the same time, projecting a peak effort in this spot while returning to the TURF, their preferred surface.

#5 MOHTAFIL also wheels back from the 7/12 common race and sneaky good effort from them with the WIDE trip and GALLOP+ out after the wire something tougher to see with the running line and finishing position and while a longshot to win, the Fire/75 SpeedRate paired with the Surface/Distance Q4 Square could see them into the minor mix late at the least. 

#7 MAN ON ATTACK is a major player in this race with current form, Speed/Class ABOVE and favorable runstyle (Plot ABOVE+) as a Q1 Square. They have had to settle for place this season now picking up a massive rider upgrade, E. T. Baird could be the difference maker.

#5 CANYON STREAK, a main player as well (ABOVE on Class/Speed/Plot) and competitive back on 5/31 a common race with MAN ON ATTACK. Out of that local spin and trip – TROUBLE_S MOVE GALLOP+ wheeled back picking up the win at CBY in June. Stepped up to stakes company last week at LS not quite on the level, though will give credit to the B- 6^th place outcome a blanket for show/minors behind the top two together at the wire – not quite on the stakes level, the DROP here is fitting.

#4 I’LLHAVEANOTHERWON returns to the turf for the first time in a long time and since their 4yo season. This now 6yo had the late start debuting in the summer of 2024 at four and improving on the turf/synth, strong numbers to contend here, had the pattern of long layoff lines, the barn and circuit change coming back around. Some intent could be in play freshened since the SRP win in April showing up on this circuit protected on the grass.

#3 URGENT ACTION must step up number wise and on class first against winners from statebred maiden company last month. With that said, they physically should handle TURF and could be enough to step forward the 10-points needed for the top spot. Will also note they are a 5yo making a late career debut, rare for the connections overall. 

#3 TUM TAP coming back could have to engage early with #2 ENGAGEMENT for the lead though the edge of the two overall and from the 6/21  common race. The WEATHER noted with heavy, pouring rain and poor track conditions in play where TUM TAP not uncharacteristically with pattern of gate issues had TROUBLE_S forced to RUSH wide and X_FLOW before losing ground (NO_KEEP) and prior form and figures higher than those recorded from ENGAGEMENT  - and #4 D’ARGONAUT should they look for the lead here as well.

#5 SAFECRACKER SUE moved up second off the PREP noted from 6/25 while giving up recency after 77 days from the races and likely physically and mentally (GATE) should benefit while gaining conditioning making a WIDE MOVE after a SLOG into a Fast early and Very Fast early pace.

#1 GREEN GRACE is not far off number wise on their best day and while lighter this season, they show an every other form cycle pattern while finding the class drop not only here but from the other lower N2 races this season at the route distance, back where they have been more effective sprinting and hold “dirtied up” form to get overlooked by the public. 

This is an ideal spot for #4 ROARING VIXEN (value key) to compete and should hold that projected value with buried form. Class wise, this is the right move for them dropping from the allowance races in June, not bad efforts given the WIDE RUSH and NO_PUSH on 6/11 and TACTIC- TROUBLE in running on 6/28. Going one start back on 5/14 raced in higher N2 claiming company recording a place finish, B- OptixGRADE making a positive PRERACE+ appearance in the paddock and following the SLOG made an inside/SAVED late MOVE.

Trainer S. Childers with a pair in this race and the more obvious of the two #2 DAISY MAE ATTACK holds form and numbers on the turf while #3 SHO DOMINA makes the change in distance, first around two turns though physically looks every bit of a TURF runner. Both have had their success racing forward and will be interesting which tactics are used here from the two and others in this field as well.

#7 CODE OF CONDUCT also has at times shown early speed, though did after slight early TROUBLE- and SHUFFLE put in a late CLOSE in that 5/10 seasonal return and recent start. Number wise they have on more than one occasion recorded figures which make them a prime contender, though many of those numbers on the main track and still look to translate to the grass. Their lone turf start last June in N1 allowance company could be given a slight pass, not only doing something new on the day, made a RUSH into a Very Fast early pace.

#6 DRAMA SPEAKER coming in off the layoff  has at times shown early speed number wise even on their best day softer than others, though to be fair, that sample is based on primarily 3yo form and potential upside with maturity is possible.