Handicapper Tips & Picks

LONGSHOT: #5 EMBRACING AUTISM projected to move up with the class DROP and wheeling back with that change in a week, second off the long layoff, improved overall with WIDE trip show finish on 6/20 - in against open company as just one of two 3yo in against older, established maidens. The timing could have been less than ideal going into the 7/4 race two weeks later; and if that was not the case, the "trip" certainly notable with in running TROUBLE and significant ground loss (X_WIDE) to suggest they did not have their best chance to compete. 

In terms of the older runners today #1 PENNY WORTH first time at the MCL level with consistent speed figures should move up naturally and here and even capable of showing more tactical speed with the change in class - Q2 Square. #2 FORGOTTEN MEMORIES made a belated career debut, the 5yo mare starting out in June a competitive B- effort and figure first out at this level noting the SLOG TROUBLE_S making a WIDE MOVE and GALLOP+ -- the type of effort which should be competitive right back at the level (Q4 Square) and trainer C. Lewis has sent out live this meet with 255 win (37.5% ITM) and positive $1.29 ROI. 

In terms of #9 KOKOSAN they take the belated class drop and should move up naturally on that change, arguably the horse to beat, as an individual. With that said, trip is crucial given their runstyle paired with outside post. 

Looking at OptixEQ PLOT the dynamic for this race, a "Sun" Contention and a higher 100 extreme could upgrade #4 BAD TO THE BONES as a Q4 Square. While their current form might not look like much "on paper" they recorded a B OptixGRADE at this level back on 4/5; OptixNOTE: SLOG CLOSE BLANKET reuniting with E. Maldonado the rider aboard that day to suggest intent. Going further back in their past performances on OptixGRID they hold plenty of speed figures to suggest they can compere on that front as well. 

A competitive stakes event where a lot of attention public and media surrounding #8 PAVLOVIAN as they return from the KY Derby (G1) race and trail back to California (not Cali) to restart their second half of the year in statebred company. Certainly they would be no surprise to win, though following their form cycle from last summer onward improved with racing and the added route of ground -- where today at a shorter number should be worth taking on wagering wise, while respecting the horse overall. 

#11 START THE RIDE requires a trip from the outside though could find price compensation given the draw and lack of interest. That could also be in part coming back after falling short as the favorite last month in the LRC Derby. Granted that might have been an underlay on the day and following the speed figure "every other" pattern for START THE RIDE they can as proven in the past running back to a top number here. 

#4 LIT could be very live here in just a second career start. This race could have been on the calendar prior to the LRC debut last month and breaking the maiden dominantly (B+) given the experience and added ground with a reasonable projection to see a forward move in just a second career start. Will note A. Ayuso aboard for the debut sticks with START THE RIDE, though not making too much of the change as both horses fit and tough to be in two places at once. 

LONGSHOT: #8 UNUSUALEXIS comes back from the 6/14 common race when fractious in the GATE and with the outside post a WIDE trip to follow chasing a Fast early pace. Visually they could benefit not only from the experience but the STRETCH out in distance as they come back today at the mile, route distance. 

The 12-1 ML is fair value on #6 GLYCOGEN coming back off their B OptixGRADE debut making a WIDE CLOSE after the SLOG to finish in a BLANKET at the wire. They return from that race with the projected STRETCH in distance to suggest not only can they contend on class (B OptixGRADE) but even move forward number wise given this distance change.